IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/not/notgep/2024-06.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trading places: How trade policy is reshaping multinational firms’ location

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Graziano
  • Monika Sztajerowska
  • Christian Volpe Martincus

Abstract

The recent changes in trade policy have significantly impacted trade flows. There is an ongoing debate on whether and to what extent firms may have also reacted to the new trade barriers by modifying the spatial organization of their multinational production to circumvent them. This paper aims to provide new evidence on whether such a tariff induced shift in the location patterns of multinational firms has actually taken place. To do so, we exploit the changes in U.S. import tariffs in 2018-2019. The evidence indicates that firms have indeed responded to these new tariffs by adjusting the extensive margin of their multinational production across countries and that both structural factors and trade agreements played an important role in shaping these adjustments.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Graziano & Monika Sztajerowska & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2024. "Trading places: How trade policy is reshaping multinational firms’ location," Discussion Papers 2024-06, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    • Handle: RePEc:not:notgep:2024-06
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/gep/documents/papers/2024/24-06.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Kermani, Amir & Kwak, James & Mitton, Todd, 2016. "The value of connections in turbulent times: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 368-391.
    2. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman & Stephen J. Redding, 2024. "When Tariffs Disrupt Global Supply Chains," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(4), pages 988-1029, April.
    3. Conconi, Paola & Sapir, André & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2016. "The internationalization process of firms: From exports to FDI," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 16-30.
    4. Laura Alfaro & Pol Antràs & Davin Chor & Paola Conconi, 2019. "Internalizing Global Value Chains: A Firm-Level Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(2), pages 508-559.
    5. Carballo, Jeronimo & Handley, Kyle & Limão, Nuno, 2022. "Economic and policy uncertainty: Aggregate export dynamics and the value of agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. David L. Carr & James R. Markusen & Keith E. Maskus, 2021. "Estimating The Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 5, pages 95-110, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Felix Tintelnot, 2017. "Global Production with Export Platforms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 157-209.
    8. Bruce A. Blonigen & Jeremy Piger, 2019. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 1, pages 3-54, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Laura Alfaro & Andrew Charlton, 2009. "Intra-industry Foreign Direct Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(5), pages 2096-2119, December.
    10. Alberto Cavallo & Gita Gopinath & Brent Neiman & Jenny Tang, 2021. "Tariff Pass-Through at the Border and at the Store: Evidence from US Trade Policy," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 19-34, March.
    11. Chen, Maggie X., 2009. "Regional economic integration and geographic concentration of multinational firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 355-375, April.
    12. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Torfinn Harding & Beata S. Javorcik, 2011. "Roll Out the Red Carpet and They Will Come: Investment Promotion and FDI Inflows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(557), pages 1445-1476, December.
    14. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2022. "Trade Policy Uncertainty," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 363-395, August.
    15. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2004. "Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 300-316, March.
    16. Natalia Ramondo & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2013. "Trade, Multinational Production, and the Gains from Openness," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(2), pages 273-322.
    17. Benguria, Felipe & Choi, Jaerim & Swenson, Deborah L. & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2022. "Anxiety or pain? The impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Chinese firms in the trade war," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Giancarlo Corsetti & Banu Demir & Beata Javorcik, 2024. "Trading around Geopolitics," Economics Series Working Papers 1052, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    19. Aiyar, Shekhar & Malacrino, Davide & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2024. "Investing in friends: The role of geopolitical alignment in FDI flows," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    20. Aaron Flaaen & Ali Hortaçsu & Felix Tintelnot, 2020. "The Production Relocation and Price Effects of US Trade Policy: The Case of Washing Machines," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(7), pages 2103-2127, July.
    21. Bruce Blonigen, 2005. "A Review of the Empirical Literature on FDI Determinants," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 33(4), pages 383-403, December.
    22. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    23. Mary Amiti & Stephen J. Redding & David E. Weinstein, 2019. "The Impact of the 2018 Tariffs on Prices and Welfare," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 187-210, Fall.
    24. Natalia Ramondo & Andrés Rodríguez-Clare & Felix Tintelnot, 2015. "Multinational Production: Data and Stylized Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 530-536, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jerónimo Carballo & Ignacio Marra de Artiñano & Christian Volpe Martincus, 2021. "Information Frictions, Investment Promotion, and Multinational Production: Firm-Level Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 9043, CESifo.
    2. Yuko Imura, 2023. "Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Production Networks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 77-116, December.
    3. Mariam Camarero & Laura Montolio & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Determinants of FDI for Spanish regions: evidence using stock data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2779-2820, December.
    4. Bahar, Dany, 2020. "The hardships of long distance relationships: time zone proximity and the location of MNC's knowledge-intensive activities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    5. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "A micro-macro model of foreign direct investment: knowledge-based gravity forces, self-selection and third-country effects," MPRA Paper 115542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Okubo, Toshihiro & Watabe, Yuta, 2023. "Networked FDI and third-country intra-firm trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 591-606.
    7. Kox, Henk L.M., 2022. "Explaining foreign direct investment patterns: a testable micro-macro gravity model for FDI," MPRA Paper 115273, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Guo, Guangyuan & Hu, Dongmin & Wang, Huanhuan & Zhang, Zhiqiang, 2024. "Adapting to trade friction: The supply chain dynamics of Chinese suppliers," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Pablo Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi Goldberg & Patrick Kennedy & Amit Khandelwal & Daria Taglioni, 2024. "The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 295-312, June.
    10. Lukas Boer & Lukas Menkhoff & Malte Rieth, 2023. "The multifaceted impact of US trade policy on financial markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 388-406, April.
    11. Conconi, Paola & Sapir, André & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2016. "The internationalization process of firms: From exports to FDI," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 16-30.
    12. Karin Mayr-Dorn & Gaia Narciso & Duc Anh Dang & Hien Phan, 2023. "Trade diversion and labor market adjustment: Vietnam and the U.S.-China trade war," Economics working papers 2023-04, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    13. Ruohan Wu & Mario J. Miranda, 2023. "Dynamic impacts of intermittent trade conflicts," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 681-701, March.
    14. Maria Borga & Perla Ibarlucea Flores & Monika Sztajerowska, 2020. "Drivers of divestment decisions of multinational enterprises - A cross-country firm-level perspective," OECD Working Papers on International Investment 2019/03, OECD Publishing.
    15. Laura Alfaro & Maggie Xiaoyang Chen, 2018. "Transportation cost and the geography of foreign investment," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 12, pages 369-406, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Laura Alfaro & Maggie X. Chen, 2016. "Location Fundamentals, Agglomeration Economies, and the Geography of Multinational Firms," Working Papers 2016-18, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    17. Carballo, Jerónimo & Marra de Artiñano, Ignacio & Sztajerowska, Monika & Volpe Martincus, Christian, 2023. "How Do Investment Promotion Policies Affect Sustainability?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 13306, Inter-American Development Bank.
    18. Ma, Hong & Ning, Jingxin & Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy), 2021. "An eye for an eye? The trade and price effects of China's retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    19. Pol Antràs & Davin Chor, 2021. "Global Value Chains," NBER Working Papers 28549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Mariscal, Asier, 2021. "Global ownership patterns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multinational Firms; Foreign Direct Investment; Trade Policy; Tariffs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:not:notgep:2024-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Hilary Hughes (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cgnotuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.