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Globotics and macroeconomics: Globalisation and automation of the service sector

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  • Baldwin, Richard

Abstract

Globalisation affects the functioning of the macroeconomy. The macroeconomy’s functioning, in turn, conditions the conduct and impact of monetary policy. This is why globalisation matters for central banks. It is also why central bankers should pay attention to the evolution of globalisation. And evolve it has. This paper argues that the future of trade is trade in services – especially trade in intermediate services. Barriers are radically higher and falling radically faster for services versus goods, and, unlike farm and factory goods, there is no capacity constraint when it comes to the export of intermediate services from emerging markets. Undertaking the macroeconomic analysis for services trade that was done in the 2000s for goods trade, however, will require a substantial upgrading of the data available.

Suggested Citation

  • Baldwin, Richard, 2022. "Globotics and macroeconomics: Globalisation and automation of the service sector," CEPR Discussion Papers 17530, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17530
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    Cited by:

    1. Yunjong Eo & Luis Uzeda & Benjamin Wong, 2023. "Understanding trend inflation through the lens of the goods and services sectors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 751-766, August.
    2. Carluccio, Juan & Gautier, Erwan & Guilloux-Nefussi, Sophie, 2023. "Dissecting the impact of imports from low-wage countries on inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    3. Schmitz, Martin & Dietrich, Andreas & Brisson, Rémy, 2024. "The ECB’s enhanced effective exchange rates and harmonised competitiveness indicators: An updated weighting scheme including trade in services," Statistics Paper Series 49, European Central Bank.
    4. Golin, M. & Rauh, C., 2022. "The Impact of Fear of Automation," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2229, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Joshua P. Meltzer, 2024. "The Impact of Foundational AI on International Trade, Services and Supply Chains in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 19(1), pages 129-147, January.
    6. Ascari, Guido & Fosso, Luca, 2024. "The international dimension of trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    7. Lilia Patrignani, 2024. "Understanding digital trade," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 841, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Aiyar, Shekhar & Malacrino, Davide & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2024. "Investing in friends: The role of geopolitical alignment in FDI flows," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    9. Kym Anderson, 2022. "Structural transformation in growing open economies: Australia’s experience," Departmental Working Papers 2022-13, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Globotics; Services trade; Global inflation hypothesis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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