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Bayesian prediction of earthquake network based on space–time influence domain

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Ya
  • Zhao, Hai
  • He, Xuan
  • Pei, Fan-Dong
  • Li, Guang-Guang

Abstract

Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to analyze the conditional dependencies among different events, which are expressed by conditional probability. Scientists have already investigated the seismic activities by using BNs. Recently, earthquake network is used as a novel methodology to analyze the relationships among the earthquake events. In this paper, we propose a way to predict earthquake from a new perspective. The BN is constructed after processing, which is derived from the earthquake network based on space–time influence domain. And then, the BN parameters are learnt by using the cases which are designed from the seismic data in the period between 00:00:00 on January 1, 1992 and 00:00:00 on January 1, 2012. At last, predictions are done for the data in the period between 00:00:00 on January 1, 2012 and 00:00:00 on January 1, 2015 combining the BN with the parameters. The results show that the success rate of the prediction including delayed prediction is about 65%. It is also discovered that the predictions for some nodes have high rate of accuracy under investigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Ya & Zhao, Hai & He, Xuan & Pei, Fan-Dong & Li, Guang-Guang, 2016. "Bayesian prediction of earthquake network based on space–time influence domain," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 445(C), pages 138-149.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:445:y:2016:i:c:p:138-149
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2015.11.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Silvia Salini & Ron Kenett, 2009. "Bayesian networks of customer satisfaction survey data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(11), pages 1177-1189.
    2. He, Xuan & Zhao, Hai & Cai, Wei & Li, Guang-Guang & Pei, Fan-Dong, 2015. "Analyzing the structure of earthquake network by k-core decomposition," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 421(C), pages 34-43.
    3. Abe, Sumiyoshi & Suzuki, Norikazu, 2004. "Small-world structure of earthquake network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(1), pages 357-362.
    4. He, Xuan & Zhao, Hai & Cai, Wei & Liu, Zheng & Si, Shuai-Zong, 2014. "Earthquake networks based on space–time influence domain," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 407(C), pages 175-184.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xu, Yanjie & Ren, Tao & Liu, Yiyang & Li, Zhe, 2018. "Earthquake prediction based on community division," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 969-974.

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