IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/lauspo/v120y2022ics0264837722002940.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulation of urban growth scenarios using integration of multi-criteria analysis and game theory

Author

Listed:
  • Sadooghi, Seyed Ehsan
  • Taleai, Mohammad
  • Abolhasani, Somaie

Abstract

Urban growth is a dynamic and evolutionary spatial and social process. Urban development can be considered as a function of strategic behavior of the involved agents, which is affected by various factors such as land use interactions, density of population, economic situation, etc. This study presents an integrated model of cellular automata, multi-criteria analysis, game-theory and agent-based methods for land-use planning and simulation of urban development scenarios based on growth and distribution of the population. This model quantifies and simulates the land-use interactions concerning regulations and guidelines of the master plan. In the proposed approach, the suitability of developed land-use types is evaluated by using the multi-criteria analysis. Land-use changes are defined as an outcome of the interaction between two types of decision-makers (agents): Land Developer and Municipality. Game theory is used to simulate and quantify the strategic behavior of these two agents. The optimal decision between the agents is obtained using the backward induction process. The proposed model was implemented in the region of Roozieh in the city of Semnan. Six scenarios were simulated based on the Semnan’s approved master plan and considering the stochastic perturbation. The outcome of each scenario was evaluated based on the spatial equity factors. The results demonstrated the ability of the model to simulate the consequence of urban land-use development plans based on the regulations and guidelines of the master plan, especially for the balanced distribution of services concerning existing demand in their undersupply regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sadooghi, Seyed Ehsan & Taleai, Mohammad & Abolhasani, Somaie, 2022. "Simulation of urban growth scenarios using integration of multi-criteria analysis and game theory," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:120:y:2022:i:c:s0264837722002940
    DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106267
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837722002940
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.landusepol.2022.106267?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. R White & G Engelen, 1993. "Cellular Automata and Fractal Urban Form: A Cellular Modelling Approach to the Evolution of Urban Land-Use Patterns," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 25(8), pages 1175-1199, August.
    2. Mustafa, Ahmed & Cools, Mario & Saadi, Ismaïl & Teller, Jacques, 2017. "Coupling agent-based, cellular automata and logistic regression into a hybrid urban expansion model (HUEM)," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 529-540.
    3. Kelly,Anthony, 2003. "Decision Making Using Game Theory," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521814621, September.
    4. Xie, Hualin & Jin, Shengtian, 2019. "Evolutionary Game Analysis of Fallow Farmland Behaviors of Different Types of Farmers and Local Governments," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    5. Xie, Hualin & Wang, Wei & Zhang, Xinmin, 2018. "Evolutionary game and simulation of management strategies of fallow cultivated land: A case study in Hunan province, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 86-97.
    6. Meisam Jafari & Hamid Majedi & Seyed Masoud Monavari & Ali Asghar Alesheikh & Mirmasoud Kheirkhah Zarkesh, 2016. "Dynamic Simulation of Urban Expansion Based on Cellular Automata and Logistic Regression Model: Case Study of the Hyrcanian Region of Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-18, August.
    7. Kose, Erkan & Erbas, Mehmet & Ersen, Erkan, 2017. "An integrated approach based on game theory and geographical information systems to solve decision problems," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 308(C), pages 105-114.
    8. Yanhua Yuan & Jiangang Xu & Zhenbo Wang, 2017. "Spatial Equity Measure on Urban Ecological Space Layout Based on Accessibility of Socially Vulnerable Groups—A Case Study of Changting, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-20, August.
    9. Gomes, Eduardo & Abrantes, Patrícia & Banos, Arnaud & Rocha, Jorge, 2019. "Modelling future land use scenarios based on farmers’ intentions and a cellular automata approach," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 142-154.
    10. de Freitas, Marcos Wellausen Dias & Muñoz, Pablo & dos Santos, João Roberto & Alves, Diógenes Salas, 2018. "Land use and cover change modelling and scenarios in the Upper Uruguay Basin (Brazil)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 384(C), pages 128-144.
    11. Yilun Liu & Yueming Hu & Shaoqiu Long & Luo Liu & Xiaoping Liu, 2017. "Analysis of the Effectiveness of Urban Land-Use-Change Models Based on the Measurement of Spatio-Temporal, Dynamic Urban Growth: A Cellular Automata Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-15, May.
    12. Aumann, Robert J., 1997. "Rationality and Bounded Rationality," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 21(1-2), pages 2-14, October.
    13. Dani Broitman & Daniel Czamanski, 2012. "Cities in Competition, Characteristic Time, and Leapfrogging Developers," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 39(6), pages 1105-1118, December.
    14. Gray, Rob, 2002. "The social accounting project and Accounting Organizations and Society Privileging engagement, imaginings, new accountings and pragmatism over critique?," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 687-708, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Men, Dan & Pan, Jinghu, 2023. "Ecological network identification and connectivity robustness evaluation in the Yellow River Basin under a multi-scenario simulation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 482(C).
    2. Heng Liu & Lu Zhou & Diwei Tang, 2022. "Urban Expansion Simulation Coupled with Residential Location Selection and Land Acquisition Bargaining: A Case Study of Wuhan Urban Development Zone, Central China’s Hubei Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-20, December.
    3. Song, Youcheng & Wang, Haijun & Peng, Xiaotao & Sun, Duan & Chen, Rui, 2023. "Modeling land use change prediction using multi-model fusion techniques: A case study in the Pearl River Delta, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qianru Chen & Hualin Xie & Qunli Zhai, 2022. "Management Policy of Farmers’ Cultivated Land Abandonment Behavior Based on Evolutionary Game and Simulation Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Xie, Hualin & Huang, Yingqian & Choi, Yongrok & Shi, Jiaying, 2021. "Evaluating the sustainable intensification of cultivated land use based on emergy analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    3. Yun Teng & Peiwen Lin, 2022. "Research on Behavioral Decision-Making of Subjects on Cultivated Land Conservation under the Goal of Carbon Neutrality," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-25, September.
    4. Jin, Gui & Chen, Kun & Wang, Pei & Guo, Baishu & Dong, Yin & Yang, Jun, 2019. "Trade-offs in land-use competition and sustainable land development in the North China Plain," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 36-46.
    5. Yan Liu & Yongjiu Feng, 2016. "Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-16, October.
    6. He, Yafen & Xie, Hualin & Peng, Chaozhong, 2020. "Analyzing the behavioural mechanism of farmland abandonment in the hilly mountainous areas in China from the perspective of farming household diversity," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Hualin Xie & Yanwei Zhang & Yongrok Choi & Fengqin Li, 2020. "A Scientometrics Review on Land Ecosystem Service Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-23, April.
    8. Melaku Bogale Fitawok & Ben Derudder & Amare Sewnet Minale & Steven Van Passel & Enyew Adgo & Jan Nyssen, 2020. "Modeling the Impact of Urbanization on Land-Use Change in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia: An Integrated Cellular Automata–Markov Chain Approach," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, April.
    9. Tiangui Lv & Hualin Xie & Hua Lu & Xinmin Zhang & Lei Yang, 2019. "A Game Theory-Based Approach for Exploring Water Resource Exploitation Behavior in the Poyang Lake Basin, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-14, November.
    10. Anasua Chakraborty & Sujit Sikder & Hichem Omrani & Jacques Teller, 2022. "Cellular Automata in Modeling and Predicting Urban Densification: Revisiting the Literature since 1971," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, July.
    11. Yanwei Zhang & Xinhai Lu & Yucheng Zou & Tiangui Lv, 2022. "Nudging Strategies for Arable Land Protection Behavior in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-20, October.
    12. Jinyao Lin & Tongli Chen & Qiazi Han, 2018. "Simulating and Predicting the Impacts of Light Rail Transit Systems on Urban Land Use by Using Cellular Automata: A Case Study of Dongguan, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-16, April.
    13. José I Barredo & Luca Demicheli & Carlo Lavalle & Marjo Kasanko & Niall McCormick, 2004. "Modelling Future Urban Scenarios in Developing Countries: An Application Case Study in Lagos, Nigeria," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 31(1), pages 65-84, February.
    14. Blackburn, Nivea & Brown, Judy & Dillard, Jesse & Hooper, Val, 2014. "A dialogical framing of AIS–SEA design," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 83-101.
    15. Caruso, Geoffrey & Peeters, Dominique & Cavailhes, Jean & Rounsevell, Mark, 2007. "Spatial configurations in a periurban city. A cellular automata-based microeconomic model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 542-567, September.
    16. Yoram Halevy & Vincent Feltkamp, 2005. "A Bayesian Approach to Uncertainty Aversion," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(2), pages 449-466.
    17. Xu, Tingting & Gao, Jay & Li, Yuhua, 2019. "Machine learning-assisted evaluation of land use policies and plans in a rapidly urbanizing district in Chongqing, China," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    18. Karen Maas & Kellie Liket, 2011. "Talk the Walk: Measuring the Impact of Strategic Philanthropy," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 100(3), pages 445-464, May.
    19. Xia, Min & Zhang, Yanyuan & Zhang, Zihong & Liu, Jingjie & Ou, Weixin & Zou, Wei, 2020. "Modeling agricultural land use change in a rapid urbanizing town: Linking the decisions of government, peasant households and enterprises," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    20. C J Webster & F Wu, 1999. "Regulation, Land-Use Mix, and Urban Performance. Part 1: Theory," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 31(8), pages 1433-1442, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:120:y:2022:i:c:s0264837722002940. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joice Jiang (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/land-use-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.