IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jlands/v9y2020i4p115-d343503.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling the Impact of Urbanization on Land-Use Change in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia: An Integrated Cellular Automata–Markov Chain Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Melaku Bogale Fitawok

    (Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium
    Department of Economics, Bahir Dar University, P.O. Box 3052, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia)

  • Ben Derudder

    (Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium)

  • Amare Sewnet Minale

    (Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, Bahir Dar University, P.O. Box 79, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia)

  • Steven Van Passel

    (Department of Engineering Management, University of Antwerp, B-2610 Wilrijk-Antwerp, Belgium)

  • Enyew Adgo

    (Department of Natural Resource Management, Bahir Dar University, P.O. Box 79, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia)

  • Jan Nyssen

    (Department of Geography, Ghent University, 9000 Gent, Belgium)

Abstract

The fast-paced urbanization of recent decades entails that many regions are facing seemingly uncontrolled land-use changes (LUCs) that go hand in hand with a range of environmental and socio-economic challenges. In this paper, we use an integrated cellular automata–Markov chain (CA–MC) model to analyze and predict the urban expansion of and its impact on LUC in the city of Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. To this end, the research marshals high-resolution Landsat images of 1991, 2002, 2011, and 2018. An analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method is then used to identify the biophysical and socioeconomic factors underlying the expansion in the research area. It is shown that, during the period of study, built-up areas are rapidly expanding in the face of an overall decline of the farmland and vegetation cover. Drawing on a model calibration for 2018, the research predicts the possible geographies of LUC in the Bahir Dar area for 2025, 2034, and 2045. It is predicted that the conversions of other land-use types into built-up areas will persist in the southern, southwestern, and northeastern areas of the sprawling city, which can mainly be traced back to the uneven geographies of road accessibility, proximity to the city center, and slope variables. We reflect on how our findings can be used to facilitate sustainable urban development and land-use policies in the Bahir Dar area.

Suggested Citation

  • Melaku Bogale Fitawok & Ben Derudder & Amare Sewnet Minale & Steven Van Passel & Enyew Adgo & Jan Nyssen, 2020. "Modeling the Impact of Urbanization on Land-Use Change in Bahir Dar City, Ethiopia: An Integrated Cellular Automata–Markov Chain Approach," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:9:y:2020:i:4:p:115-:d:343503
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/9/4/115/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/9/4/115/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xingjian Liu & Ben Derudder & Kang Wu, 2016. "Measuring Polycentric Urban Development in China: An Intercity Transportation Network Perspective," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(8), pages 1302-1315, August.
    2. Achamyeleh Gashu Adam, 2014. "Land Tenure in the Changing Peri-Urban Areas of Ethiopia: The Case of Bahir Dar City," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(6), pages 1970-1984, November.
    3. R White & G Engelen, 1993. "Cellular Automata and Fractal Urban Form: A Cellular Modelling Approach to the Evolution of Urban Land-Use Patterns," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 25(8), pages 1175-1199, August.
    4. Frank Schweitzer, 2006. "A growing urban problem," Nature, Nature, vol. 441(7095), pages 815-815, June.
    5. Guan, DongJie & Li, HaiFeng & Inohae, Takuro & Su, Weici & Nagaie, Tadashi & Hokao, Kazunori, 2011. "Modeling urban land use change by the integration of cellular automaton and Markov model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(20), pages 3761-3772.
    6. Han, Yu & Jia, Haifeng, 2017. "Simulating the spatial dynamics of urban growth with an integrated modeling approach: A case study of Foshan, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 353(C), pages 107-116.
    7. Meisam Jafari & Hamid Majedi & Seyed Masoud Monavari & Ali Asghar Alesheikh & Mirmasoud Kheirkhah Zarkesh, 2016. "Dynamic Simulation of Urban Expansion Based on Cellular Automata and Logistic Regression Model: Case Study of the Hyrcanian Region of Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-18, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yabo Zhao & Dixiang Xie & Xiwen Zhang & Shifa Ma, 2021. "Integrating Spatial Markov Chains and Geographically Weighted Regression-Based Cellular Automata to Simulate Urban Agglomeration Growth: A Case Study of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Getu, Kenu & Bhat, H Gangadhara, 2021. "Analysis of spatio-temporal dynamics of urban sprawl and growth pattern using geospatial technologies and landscape metrics in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    3. Andrew Allan & Ali Soltani & Mohammad Hamed Abdi & Melika Zarei, 2022. "Driving Forces behind Land Use and Land Cover Change: A Systematic and Bibliometric Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.
    4. Admasu, Wubante Fetene & Van Passel, Steven & Nyssen, Jan & Minale, Amare Sewnet & Tsegaye, Enyew Adgo, 2021. "Eliciting farmers’ preferences and willingness to pay for land use attributes in Northwest Ethiopia: A discrete choice experiment study," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    5. Sumbo, Dennis Kamaanaa & Anane, George Kwadwo & Inkoom, Daniel Kweku Baah, 2023. "‘Peri-urbanisation and loss of arable land’: Indigenes’ farmland access challenges and adaptation strategies in Kumasi and Wa, Ghana," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Alireza Mohammadi & Behzad Kiani & Hassan Mahmoudzadeh & Robert Bergquist, 2023. "Pedestrian Road Traffic Accidents in Metropolitan Areas: GIS-Based Prediction Modelling of Cases in Mashhad, Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-20, July.
    7. Wubante Fetene Admasu & Annelies Boerema & Jan Nyssen & Amare Sewnet Minale & Enyew Adgo Tsegaye & Steven Van Passel, 2020. "Uncovering Ecosystem Services of Expropriated Land: The Case of Urban Expansion in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-20, October.
    8. Markos Mathewos & Semaria Moga Lencha & Misgena Tsegaye, 2022. "Land Use and Land Cover Change Assessment and Future Predictions in the Matenchose Watershed, Rift Valley Basin, Using CA-Markov Simulation," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-28, September.
    9. Jin, Hong & Li, Heping & Lee, Jia & Sun, Weitong, 2023. "Simulation analysis of rural land use using rate of change driven by population and economic dynamics - A case study of Huangguashan village in Chongqing, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 475(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Michel Opelele Omeno & Ying Yu & Wenyi Fan & Tolerant Lubalega & Chen Chen & Claude Kachaka Sudi Kaiko, 2021. "Analysis of the Impact of Land-Use/Land-Cover Change on Land-Surface Temperature in the Villages within the Luki Biosphere Reserve," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-23, October.
    2. Yan Liu & Yongjiu Feng, 2016. "Simulating the Impact of Economic and Environmental Strategies on Future Urban Growth Scenarios in Ningbo, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-16, October.
    3. Xuesong Gao & Yu Liu & Lun Liu & Qiquan Li & Ouping Deng & Yali Wei & Jing Ling & Min Zeng, 2018. "Is Big Good or Bad?: Testing the Performance of Urban Growth Cellular Automata Simulation at Different Spatial Extents," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Chao Xu & Didit O Pribadi & Dagmar Haase & Stephan Pauleit, 2020. "Incorporating spatial autocorrelation and settlement type segregation to improve the performance of an urban growth model," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 47(7), pages 1184-1200, September.
    5. Chunliu Gao & Deqiang Cheng & Javed Iqbal & Shunyu Yao, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Change Analysis and Prediction of the Great Yellow River Region (GYRR) Land Cover and the Relationship Analysis with Mountain Hazards," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-24, January.
    6. Xiuyan Zhao & Changhong Miao, 2022. "Spatial-Temporal Changes and Simulation of Land Use in Metropolitan Areas: A Case of the Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-27, October.
    7. Anasua Chakraborty & Sujit Sikder & Hichem Omrani & Jacques Teller, 2022. "Cellular Automata in Modeling and Predicting Urban Densification: Revisiting the Literature since 1971," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, July.
    8. Parviz Azizi & Ali Soltani & Farokh Bagheri & Shahrzad Sharifi & Mehdi Mikaeili, 2022. "An Integrated Modelling Approach to Urban Growth and Land Use/Cover Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-26, October.
    9. Youjung Kim & Galen Newman & Burak Güneralp, 2020. "A Review of Driving Factors, Scenarios, and Topics in Urban Land Change Models," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-22, July.
    10. Sadooghi, Seyed Ehsan & Taleai, Mohammad & Abolhasani, Somaie, 2022. "Simulation of urban growth scenarios using integration of multi-criteria analysis and game theory," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    11. Kwok Hung Lau & Booi Hon Kam, 2005. "A Cellular Automata Model for Urban Land-Use Simulation," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 32(2), pages 247-263, April.
    12. Yang, Yuanyuan & Bao, Wenkai & Liu, Yansui, 2020. "Scenario simulation of land system change in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    13. Youjung Kim & Galen Newman, 2019. "Climate Change Preparedness: Comparing Future Urban Growth and Flood Risk in Amsterdam and Houston," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, February.
    14. José I Barredo & Luca Demicheli & Carlo Lavalle & Marjo Kasanko & Niall McCormick, 2004. "Modelling Future Urban Scenarios in Developing Countries: An Application Case Study in Lagos, Nigeria," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 31(1), pages 65-84, February.
    15. Caruso, Geoffrey & Peeters, Dominique & Cavailhes, Jean & Rounsevell, Mark, 2007. "Spatial configurations in a periurban city. A cellular automata-based microeconomic model," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 542-567, September.
    16. Yongwang Cao & Xiong He & Chunshan Zhou, 2023. "Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Population Migration under Different Population Agglomeration Patterns—A Case Study of Urban Agglomeration in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-25, April.
    17. Andrew Allan & Ali Soltani & Mohammad Hamed Abdi & Melika Zarei, 2022. "Driving Forces behind Land Use and Land Cover Change: A Systematic and Bibliometric Review," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-20, August.
    18. Xiaokun Su & Chenrouyu Zheng & Yefei Yang & Yafei Yang & Wen Zhao & Yue Yu, 2022. "Spatial Structure and Development Patterns of Urban Traffic Flow Network in Less Developed Areas: A Sustainable Development Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-18, July.
    19. Katarzyna Kocur-Bera & Anna Lyjak, 2021. "Analysis of Changes in Agricultural Use of Land After Poland’s Accession to the EU," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 517-533.
    20. C J Webster & F Wu, 1999. "Regulation, Land-Use Mix, and Urban Performance. Part 1: Theory," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 31(8), pages 1433-1442, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jlands:v:9:y:2020:i:4:p:115-:d:343503. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.