IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v486y2023ics0304380023002752.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling land use change prediction using multi-model fusion techniques: A case study in the Pearl River Delta, China

Author

Listed:
  • Song, Youcheng
  • Wang, Haijun
  • Peng, Xiaotao
  • Sun, Duan
  • Chen, Rui

Abstract

Cellular automata (CA) model has powerful spatial analysis capabilities and easy coupling with other models. However, the coupling based on single model and CA model is difficult to take into account both the accuracy of the model and the interpretation of the driving factors. Moreover, the "bottom-up" feature of the model makes it difficult to take into account the macro regulation. Based on this, we proposed a multi-model coupled multi-agent system (MAS), convolutional neural network (CNN) and cellular automata (CA) model for land use change simulation. Using the Pearl River Delta (PRD) as the study area, the simulation study was conducted from 2000 to 2010 as the test period and from 2010 to 2020 as the validation period, respectively. The results of the study are as follows: (1) Compared with the CNNCA model, the MAS-CNNCA model has improved accuracy validation in both the test period and the validation period, which indicates that the strong classifier composed of multiple agents as weak classifiers is more accurate in identifying the suitability of land use change. (2) The dual perspective consisting of macro-agent and micro-agent together is more profound for land use change mechanism exploration. (3) The coupling of simulation results and the geographic detector model can reveal the interactive relationship between drivers and land use change.

Suggested Citation

  • Song, Youcheng & Wang, Haijun & Peng, Xiaotao & Sun, Duan & Chen, Rui, 2023. "Modeling land use change prediction using multi-model fusion techniques: A case study in the Pearl River Delta, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:486:y:2023:i:c:s0304380023002752
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110545
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380023002752
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110545?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph Bakarji & Daniel O’Malley & Velimir V. Vesselinov, 2017. "Agent-Based Socio-Hydrological Hybrid Modeling for Water Resource Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(12), pages 3881-3898, September.
    2. Sadooghi, Seyed Ehsan & Taleai, Mohammad & Abolhasani, Somaie, 2022. "Simulation of urban growth scenarios using integration of multi-criteria analysis and game theory," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Xu, Hongtao & Song, Youcheng & Tian, Yi, 2022. "Simulation of land-use pattern evolution in hilly mountainous areas of North China: A case study in Jincheng," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    4. Chaopeng Hong & Jennifer A. Burney & Julia Pongratz & Julia E. M. S. Nabel & Nathaniel D. Mueller & Robert B. Jackson & Steven J. Davis, 2021. "Global and regional drivers of land-use emissions in 1961–2017," Nature, Nature, vol. 589(7843), pages 554-561, January.
    5. Zihao Zhang & Stefan Zohren & Stephen Roberts, 2018. "DeepLOB: Deep Convolutional Neural Networks for Limit Order Books," Papers 1808.03668, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2020.
    6. Timothy D. Searchinger & Stefan Wirsenius & Tim Beringer & Patrice Dumas, 2018. "Assessing the efficiency of changes in land use for mitigating climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 564(7735), pages 249-253, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Heng Liu & Lu Zhou & Diwei Tang, 2022. "Urban Expansion Simulation Coupled with Residential Location Selection and Land Acquisition Bargaining: A Case Study of Wuhan Urban Development Zone, Central China’s Hubei Province," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-20, December.
    2. Henrik B. Møller & Peter Sørensen & Jørgen E. Olesen & Søren O. Petersen & Tavs Nyord & Sven G. Sommer, 2022. "Agricultural Biogas Production—Climate and Environmental Impacts," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-24, February.
    3. Sophie Saget & Marcela Costa & David Styles & Mike Williams, 2021. "Does Circular Reuse of Chickpea Cooking Water to Produce Vegan Mayonnaise Reduce Environmental Impact Compared with Egg Mayonnaise?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-18, April.
    4. Xinbei Huang & Chengming Ye & Hongyu Tao & Junjie Zou & Yuzhan Zhou & Shufan Zheng, 2024. "Integrating Future Multi-Scenarios to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Ecological Restoration: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-19, July.
    5. Elena Tamburini & Mattias Gaglio & Giuseppe Castaldelli & Elisa Anna Fano, 2020. "Is Bioenergy Truly Sustainable When Land-Use-Change (LUC) Emissions Are Accounted for? The Case-Study of Biogas from Agricultural Biomass in Emilia-Romagna Region, Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-20, April.
    6. Maurer, Rainer, 2023. "Comparing the effect of different agricultural land-use systems on biodiversity," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Liudmila Tripolskaja & Asta Kazlauskaite-Jadzevice & Eugenija Baksiene & Almantas Razukas, 2022. "Changes in Organic Carbon in Mineral Topsoil of a Formerly Cultivated Arenosol under Different Land Uses in Lithuania," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-19, March.
    8. Hu Liao & Hu Li & Chen-Song Duan & Xin-Yuan Zhou & Qiu-Ping Luo & Xin-Li An & Yong-Guan Zhu & Jian-Qiang Su, 2022. "Response of soil viral communities to land use changes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    9. Debuschewitz, Emil & Sanders, Jürn, 2021. "Bewertung der Umweltwirkungen des ökologischen Landbaus im Kontext der kontroversen wissenschaftlichen Diskurse," 61st Annual Conference, Berlin, Germany, September 22-24, 2021 317076, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    10. Bellassen Valentin & Drut Marion & Antonioli Federico & Brečić Ružica & Donati Michele & Ferrer-Pérez Hugo & Gauvrit Lisa & Hoang Viet & Knutsen Steinnes Kamilla & Lilavanichakul Apichaya & Majewski E, 2021. "The Carbon and Land Footprint of Certified Food Products," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 113-126, December.
    11. Marian Gil & Mariusz Rudy & Paulina Duma-Kocan & Renata Stanisławczyk & Anna Krajewska & Dariusz Dziki & Waleed H. Hassoon, 2024. "Sustainability of Alternatives to Animal Protein Sources, a Comprehensive Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-27, September.
    12. Dupoux, Marion, 2019. "The land use change time-accounting failure," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Enrico Balugani & Beike Sumfleth & Stefan Majer & Diego Marazza & Daniela Thrän, 2022. "Bridging Modeling and Certification to Evaluate Low-ILUC-Risk Practices for Biobased Materials with a User-Friendly Tool," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, February.
    14. Ming Zhang & Xiaojie Liu & Dan Yan, 2023. "Land Use Conflicts Assessment in Xiamen, China under Multiple Scenarios," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-16, February.
    15. Jonathan E. Barnsley & Chanjief Chandrakumar & Carlos Gonzalez-Fischer & Paul E. Eme & Bridget E. P. Bourke & Nick W. Smith & Lakshmi A. Dave & Warren C. McNabb & Harry Clark & David J. Frame & John L, 2021. "Lifetime Climate Impacts of Diet Transitions: A Novel Climate Change Accounting Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    16. Adam C. Castonguay & Stephen Polasky & Matthew H. Holden & Mario Herrero & Daniel Mason-D’Croz & Cecile Godde & Jinfeng Chang & James Gerber & G. Bradd Witt & Edward T. Game & Brett A. Bryan & Brendan, 2023. "Navigating sustainability trade-offs in global beef production," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 6(3), pages 284-294, March.
    17. Dumas, Patrice & Wirsenius, Stefan & Searchinger, Tim & Andrieu, Nadine & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, 2022. "Options to achieve net-zero emissions from agriculture and land use changes in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 12385, Inter-American Development Bank.
    18. Lei Hua & Rong Ran & Mingjuan Xie & Tingrou Li, 2024. "The capacity of land carbon sinks in poverty-stricken areas in China continues to increase in the process of eradicating extreme poverty: evidence from a study of poverty-stricken counties on the Qing," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 17253-17280, July.
    19. Vangelis Bacoyannis & Vacslav Glukhov & Tom Jin & Jonathan Kochems & Doo Re Song, 2018. "Idiosyncrasies and challenges of data driven learning in electronic trading," Papers 1811.09549, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2018.
    20. Haoran Zhang & Limin Jiao & Cai Li & Zhongci Deng & Zhen Wang & Qiqi Jia & Xihong Lian & Yaolin Liu & Yuanchao Hu, 2024. "Global environmental impacts of food system from regional shock: Russia-Ukraine war as an example," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-13, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:486:y:2023:i:c:s0304380023002752. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.