Coupling agent-based, cellular automata and logistic regression into a hybrid urban expansion model (HUEM)

Several methods for modeling urban expansion are available. Most of them are based on a statistical, a cellular automaton (CA) and/or an agent-based (AB) approach. Statistical and CA approaches are based on the implicit assumption that people's behavior is not likely to change over the considered time horizon. Such assumption limits the ability to simulate long-term predictions as people’s behavior changes over time. An approach to consider people’s behavior is the use of an AB system, in which the decision-making process of agents needs to be parameterized. Most existing studies, which make use of empirical data to define the agents' decision-making criteria, rely on intensive data collection efforts. The considerable data requirements limit the AB-system's ability to model a large study area, as the number of agents for which data on decision-making criteria is required, increases with the size of the study area. This paper presents a hybrid urban expansion model (HUEM) that integrates logistic regression (Logit), CA and AB approaches to simulate future urban development. A key feature of HUEM lies in its ability to address various people behaviors that are variable over time through AB relying on a sample approach that combines Logit and CA. Three agent sets are defined; developer agents, farmer agents and planning permission authority agent. The agents’ decision-making process is parameterized using CA and Logit models. The interactions of the agents are simulated through a series of rules. To assess HUEM performance, it is calibrated for Wallonia (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between 1990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated map and the actual 2000 land-use map. Furthermore, the performance of HUEM is compared to a number of typical spatial urban expansion models, i.e. Logit model, CA model and CA-Logit to assess the added-value of HUEM. The comparison shows the performance of HUEM is better than other models in terms of allocation ability.