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Unemployment shocks for individuals on the margin: Exploring recidivism effects

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  • Siwach, Garima

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of unemployment on the likelihood of returning to criminal activity for a sample of individuals with criminal records who are actively seeking employment. I use administrative data from the New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services, Department of Labor, and Department of Health, to track unemployment and arrest outcomes for this sample between 2008 and 2014. To identify the unemployment–arrest relationship, I use industry-specific variation in unemployment trends caused by the recession in 2008–2009, along with individual fixed effects to control for time-constant individual heterogeneity. The 2SLS estimates suggest that increased unemployment has large effects on rearrests for individuals with criminal records who are now active in the labor market, with substantial heterogeneity by race and sex. The results suggest larger estimates than those typically found in literature, indicating that targeting employment programs at those “on the margin” could substantially reduce rearrest rates for such individuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Siwach, Garima, 2018. "Unemployment shocks for individuals on the margin: Exploring recidivism effects," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 231-244.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:52:y:2018:i:c:p:231-244
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2018.02.001
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    4. Georges Bresson & Guy Lacroix & Mohammad Arshad Rahman, 2021. "Bayesian panel quantile regression for binary outcomes with correlated random effects: an application on crime recidivism in Canada," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(1), pages 227-259, January.
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    7. Joshua M. Congdon-Hohman, 2018. "The persistent labor market effects of a criminal conviction and �Ban the Box� reforms," Working Papers 1808, College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics.
    8. Zanella, Giulio, 2020. "Prison Work and Convict Rehabilitation," IZA Discussion Papers 13446, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; Crime; Arrests; Recession; Healthcare industry; Recidivism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J48 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Particular Labor Markets; Public Policy
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • K31 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Labor Law
    • K40 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - General

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