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Effect of electricity policy uncertainty and carbon emission prices on electricity demand in China based on mixed-frequency data models

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  • Lu, Wanbo
  • Liu, Qibo
  • Wang, Jie

Abstract

This paper first constructs the electricity policy uncertainty (EPU) in China with textual methods and analyses the effect of the EPU and carbon emission prices (CEPs) on the total electricity demand. This paper also forecasts the demand for electricity in China with three mixed-frequency data models. The results show that the EPU index efficiently captures the uncertainty of China's electricity policy. The effects of EPU and CEPs on electricity demand are significant, and incorporating them into the forecasting model will improve the accuracy and timeliness. Moreover, compared with the ARMA model and LSTM neural networks, mixed-frequency data models perform better in electricity demand forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu, Wanbo & Liu, Qibo & Wang, Jie, 2024. "Effect of electricity policy uncertainty and carbon emission prices on electricity demand in China based on mixed-frequency data models," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:juipol:v:91:y:2024:i:c:s0957178724001188
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2024.101825
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