IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v43y2018icp118-128.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sluggish private investment in Japan’s Lost Decade: Mixed frequency vector autoregression approach

Author

Listed:
  • Motegi, Kaiji
  • Sadahiro, Akira

Abstract

It is well known that sluggish private investment plagued the Japanese macroeconomy during the Lost Decade. Previous empirical papers have not reached a clear consensus on what caused the investment slowdown. This paper sheds new light on this issue by fitting a mixed frequency vector autoregressive model to monthly stock prices, quarterly bank loans, firm profit, and private investment. Monthly stock prices explain as much as 50.7% of the long-run forecast error variance of investment. We also reveal a spiral of declining stock prices, profit, and investment. Finally, the stagnation of bank loans is a consequence of declined stock prices, and the former is not a cause of declined investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Motegi, Kaiji & Sadahiro, Akira, 2018. "Sluggish private investment in Japan’s Lost Decade: Mixed frequency vector autoregression approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 118-128.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:43:y:2018:i:c:p:118-128
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2017.10.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940817301894
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2017.10.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters, in: Paolo Onofri (ed.), The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Kazuo Ogawa, 2003. "Financial Distress and Corporate Investment: The Japanese Case in the 90s," ISER Discussion Paper 0584, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    3. Michael W. McCracken & Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2021. "Real-Time Forecasting and Scenario Analysis Using a Large Mixed-Frequency Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(71), pages 1-41, December.
    4. Andrea Silvestrini & David Veredas, 2008. "Temporal Aggregation Of Univariate And Multivariate Time Series Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 458-497, July.
    5. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2006. "Predicting volatility: getting the most out of return data sampled at different frequencies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 59-95.
    6. Ito, Takatoshi & Sasaki, Yuri Nagataki, 2002. "Impacts of the Basle Capital Standard on Japanese Banks' Behavior," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 372-397, September.
    7. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 206-235, January.
    8. Gibson, Michael S, 1995. "Can Bank Health Affect Investment? Evidence from Japan," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 281-308, July.
    9. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-1384, December.
    10. Horiuchi, Akiyoshi & Shimizu, Katsutoshi, 1998. "The deterioration of bank balance sheets in Japan: Risk-taking and recapitalization," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(1-2), pages 1-26, May.
    11. Gibson, Michael S., 1997. "More Evidence on the Link between Bank Health and Investment in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 296-310, September.
    12. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain & Smeekes, Stephan, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality in large mixed-frequency VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 418-432.
    13. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    14. Motonishi, Taizo & Yoshikawa, Hiroshi, 1999. "Causes of the Long Stagnation of Japan during the 1990s: Financial or Real?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 181-200, September.
    15. Hirokazu Mizobata, 2015. "Hiring, investments, and financial distress: evidence from a Panel VAR analysis of Japanese firms," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(4), pages 2558-2566.
    16. Ghysels, Eric & Hill, Jonathan B. & Motegi, Kaiji, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 207-230.
    17. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2004. "The MIDAS Touch: Mixed Data Sampling Regression Models," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt9mf223rs, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    18. Andreou, Elena & Ghysels, Eric & Kourtellos, Andros, 2010. "Regression models with mixed sampling frequencies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(2), pages 246-261, October.
    19. Anderson, Brian D.O. & Deistler, Manfred & Felsenstein, Elisabeth & Funovits, Bernd & Koelbl, Lukas & Zamani, Mohsen, 2016. "Multivariate Ar Systems And Mixed Frequency Data: G-Identifiability And Estimation," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(4), pages 793-826, August.
    20. Ghysels, Eric, 2016. "Macroeconomics and the reality of mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 294-314.
    21. Woo, David, 2003. "In Search of "Capital Crunch": Supply Factors behind the Credit Slowdown in Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(6), pages 1019-1038, December.
    22. Hirokazu Mizobata, 2014. "What determines the Japanese firm investments: real or financial?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 303-311, January.
    23. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ouyang, Ruolan & Chen, Xiang & Fang, Yi & Zhao, Yang, 2022. "Systemic risk of commodity markets: A dynamic factor copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Han Liu & Ying Liu & Yonglian Wang, 2021. "Exploring the influence of economic policy uncertainty on the relationship between tourism and economic growth with an MF-VAR model," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 1081-1100, August.
    3. Petre Caraiani & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2022. "Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on Housing Prices in the United States: The Role of Sentiment," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 241-261, July.
    4. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Geopolitical risk and crude oil security: A Chinese perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    5. Chang, Tsangyao & Hsu, Chen-Min & Chen, Sheng-Tung & Wang, Mei-Chih & Wu, Cheng-Feng, 2023. "Revisiting economic growth and CO2 emissions nexus in Taiwan using a mixed-frequency VAR model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 319-342.
    6. Chi-Wei Su & Yuru Song & Hsu-Ling Chang & Weike Zhang & Meng Qin, 2023. "Could Cryptocurrency Policy Uncertainty Facilitate U.S. Carbon Neutrality?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-15, May.
    7. Feng-Li Lin & Mei-Chih Wang, 2019. "Does economic growth cause military expenditure to go up? Using MF-VAR model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(6), pages 3097-3117, November.
    8. Hu, Jinyan & Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi Wei & Umar, Muhammad, 2022. "Oil price, green innovation and institutional pressure: A China's perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Campos-González, Jorge & Balcombe, Kelvin, 2024. "The race between education and technology in Chile and its impact on the skill premium," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Yasuyuki Sawada & Michio Suzuki, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Covered Interest Parity in the Post GFC Period: Evidence from the Australian Dollar and the NZ Dollar," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1033, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    2. Götz, Thomas B. & Hecq, Alain & Smeekes, Stephan, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality in large mixed-frequency VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(2), pages 418-432.
    3. Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Takahashi, Koji, 2018. "The real effects of bank-driven termination of relationships: Evidence from loan-level matched data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 46-65.
    4. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Yasuyuki Sawada & Michio Suzuki, 2016. "The Effect of Bank Recapitalization Policy on Corporate Investment: Evidence from a Banking Crisis in Japan," CARF F-Series CARF-F-399, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    5. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Sawada, Yasuyuki & Suzuki, Michio, 2024. "The effect of bank recapitalization policy on credit allocation, investment, and productivity: Evidence from a banking crisis in Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    6. Thomas B. Götz & Alain W. Hecq, 2019. "Granger Causality Testing in Mixed‐Frequency VARs with Possibly (Co)Integrated Processes," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(6), pages 914-935, November.
    7. Ogawa, Kazuo, 2007. "Debt, R&D investment and technological progress: A panel study of Japanese manufacturing firms' behavior during the 1990s," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 403-423, December.
    8. Nuttanan Wichitaksorn, 2020. "Analyzing and Forecasting Thai Macroeconomic Data using Mixed-Frequency Approach," PIER Discussion Papers 146, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Yasuyuki Sawada & Kazumitsu Nawata & Masako Ii & Mark J. Lee, 2011. "Did the Financial Crisis in Japan Affect Household Welfare Seriously?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(2‐3), pages 297-324, March.
    10. Ghysels, Eric & Hill, Jonathan B. & Motegi, Kaiji, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 207-230.
    11. Wichitaksorn, Nuttanan, 2022. "Analyzing and forecasting Thai macroeconomic data using mixed-frequency approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Khalaf, Lynda & Kichian, Maral & Saunders, Charles J. & Voia, Marcel, 2021. "Dynamic panels with MIDAS covariates: Nonlinearity, estimation and fit," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 589-605.
    13. Alain Hecq & Marie Ternes & Ines Wilms, 2023. "Hierarchical Regularizers for Reverse Unrestricted Mixed Data Sampling Regressions," Papers 2301.10592, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    14. Kazuo Ogawa, 2004. "Debt, R&D Investment and Technological Progress: A Panel Study of Japanese Manufacturing Firms in the 90s," ISER Discussion Paper 0607, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    15. Inoue, Hitoshi & Nakashima, Kiyotaka & Takahashi, Koji, 2018. "The Emergence of A Parallel World: The Misperception Problem for Bank Balance Sheet Risk and Lending Behavior," MPRA Paper 89088, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kentaro Imai, 2013. "A Panel Study of Zombie SMEs in Japan: Identification, Borrowing and Investment Behavior," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-16-Rev., Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics, revised Sep 2014.
    17. Akiyoshi, Fumio & Kobayashi, Keiichiro, 2010. "Banking crisis and productivity of borrowing firms: Evidence from Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 141-150, August.
    18. Feng-Li Lin & Mei-Chih Wang, 2019. "Does economic growth cause military expenditure to go up? Using MF-VAR model," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(6), pages 3097-3117, November.
    19. Chi-Wei Su & Yuru Song & Hsu-Ling Chang & Weike Zhang & Meng Qin, 2023. "Could Cryptocurrency Policy Uncertainty Facilitate U.S. Carbon Neutrality?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-15, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Japan’s Lost Decade; Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS); Mixed frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR); Private investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:43:y:2018:i:c:p:118-128. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.