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Forecasting annual electricity consumption in China by employing a conformable fractional grey model in opposite direction

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  • Xie, Wanli
  • Wu, Wen-Ze
  • Liu, Chong
  • Zhao, Jingjie

Abstract

Electric power makes a significant contribution to economic development. Predicting annual electricity consumption is becoming increasingly crucial for electric power utility planning and economic development. To address this problem, a novel conformable fractional grey model in opposite direction is presented to predict annual electricity consumption in China. Firstly, the computational formulas for the novel model are deduced by grey modelling method and the effectiveness of the novel model is proved by matrix perturbation theory. Secondly, the optimal parameters are determined by quantum inspired evolutionary algorithm. Thirdly, two empirical examples are taken to validate the prediction accuracy of the novel model. Finally, the proposed model is applied to predict electricity consumption of Beijing, Fujian and Shandong. The results show that the novel model is superior to other six competitive models. Besides, electricity consumption of these regions in next five years are predicted, which can well serve a benchmark research and provide a relatively reliable reference for economic and electric sectors.

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  • Xie, Wanli & Wu, Wen-Ze & Liu, Chong & Zhao, Jingjie, 2020. "Forecasting annual electricity consumption in China by employing a conformable fractional grey model in opposite direction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:202:y:2020:i:c:s0360544220307891
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2020.117682
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    5. Liu, Chong & Wu, Wen-Ze & Xie, Wanli & Zhang, Jun, 2020. "Application of a novel fractional grey prediction model with time power term to predict the electricity consumption of India and China," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    6. Wu, Wen-Ze & Pang, Haodan & Zheng, Chengli & Xie, Wanli & Liu, Chong, 2021. "Predictive analysis of quarterly electricity consumption via a novel seasonal fractional nonhomogeneous discrete grey model: A case of Hubei in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    7. Zhao, Zhenyu & Zhang, Yao & Yang, Yujia & Yuan, Shuguang, 2022. "Load forecasting via Grey Model-Least Squares Support Vector Machine model and spatial-temporal distribution of electric consumption intensity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    8. Gu, Haolei & Wu, Lifeng, 2024. "Pulse fractional grey model application in forecasting global carbon emission," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    9. Zhou, Wenhao & Li, Hailin & Zhang, Zhiwei, 2022. "A novel seasonal fractional grey model for predicting electricity demand: A case study of Zhejiang in China," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 128-147.
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    11. Xiong, Pingping & Li, Kailing & Shu, Hui & Wang, Junjie, 2021. "Forecast of natural gas consumption in the Asia-Pacific region using a fractional-order incomplete gamma grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    12. Weijie Zhou & Huihui Tao & Jiaxin Chang & Huimin Jiang & Li Chen, 2023. "Forecasting Chinese Electricity Consumption Based on Grey Seasonal Model with New Information Priority," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    13. Meira, Erick & Cyrino Oliveira, Fernando Luiz & de Menezes, Lilian M., 2021. "Point and interval forecasting of electricity supply via pruned ensembles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    14. He, Jing & Mao, Shuhua & Kang, Yuxiao, 2023. "Augmented fractional accumulation grey model and its application: Class ratio and restore error perspectives," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 220-247.
    15. Changrui Deng & Xiaoyuan Zhang & Yanmei Huang & Yukun Bao, 2021. "Equipping Seasonal Exponential Smoothing Models with Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm for Electricity Consumption Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-14, July.
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