IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v85y2023ipbs0301420723006207.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploring the vital role of geopolitics in the oil market: The case of Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Xinghua
  • Lee, Zhengzheng
  • Wu, Shuang
  • Qin, Meng

Abstract

Investigating the essential role of geopolitics in the oil market is significant for investors to optimize their portfolios. This paper takes Russian geopolitics into consideration and innovatively conducts the sub-sample test to explore the time-dependent interaction between oil price (OP) and Russian geopolitical risk (RGR). The outcomes refer to that RGR could positively and adversely affect OP. The positive effects point out that high RGR might boost the oil market, resulting in an increase in OP. However, this opinion can not be evidenced by the adverse influences, which mainly due to the apolitical factors. In turn, there exist positive impacts of OP on RGR, suggesting that high OP might deteriorate the geopolitical circumstance in Russia, and the oil market could be considered as an indicative factor to grasp RGR more comprehensively. In the context of increasingly complex geopolitics in Russia, investors could benefit from the oil market to reduce potential losses and gain profits from their investment. Besides, Russian government could predict RGR on the basis of OP to protect the health of their citizens and national security.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Xinghua & Lee, Zhengzheng & Wu, Shuang & Qin, Meng, 2023. "Exploring the vital role of geopolitics in the oil market: The case of Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:85:y:2023:i:pb:s0301420723006207
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103909
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420723006207
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.103909?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Qureshi, Anum & Rizwan, Muhammad Suhail & Ahmad, Ghufran & Ashraf, Dawood, 2022. "Russia–Ukraine war and systemic risk: Who is taking the heat?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Small sample properties of forecasts from autoregressive models under structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 183-217.
    3. EPURE Tiberius Danut & GRUESCU Ramona & BRAILOIU Liviu, 2010. "Global Economic Crisis," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 46-49, May.
    4. Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Mehl, Arnaud, 2021. "Does a big bazooka matter? Quantitative easing policies and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 489-506.
    5. Karras, Georgios, 2013. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy with or without Quantitative Easing: Empirical evidence for the US," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9.
    6. Hassan Anjum, 2019. "Estimating volatility transmission between oil prices and the US Dollar exchange rate under structural breaks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(4), pages 750-763, October.
    7. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Snarska, Małgorzata, 2021. "The role of oil price uncertainty shocks on oil-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    8. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Al-Faryan, Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh, 2022. "Does oil connect differently with prominent assets during war? Analysis of intra-day data during the Russia-Ukraine saga," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Raheem, Ibrahim D., 2017. "Asymmetry and break effects of oil price -macroeconomic fundamentals dynamics: The trade effect channel," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 12-25.
    10. Qadan, Mahmoud & Nama, Hazar, 2018. "Investor sentiment and the price of oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 42-58.
    11. Medel, Carlos, 2015. "Producers, Politicians, Warriors, and Forecasters: Who's Who in the Oil Market?," MPRA Paper 65298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Qian, Lihua & Zeng, Qing & Li, Tao, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and oil price volatility: Evidence from Markov-switching model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 29-38.
    13. Bakirtas, Tahsin & Akpolat, Ahmet Gökçe, 2020. "The relationship between crude oil exports, crude oil prices and military expenditures in some OPEC countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    14. Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Financial implications of fourth industrial revolution: Can bitcoin improve prospects of energy investment?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    15. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    16. Tahmassebi, Hossein, 1986. "The impact of the Iran-Iraq war on the world oil market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 409-411.
    17. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    18. Chen, Yu-Lun & Mo, Wan-Shin & Chang, Ya-Kai, 2022. "Investor sentiment spillover effect and market quality in crude oil futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 177-193.
    19. Hou, Keqiang & Mountain, Dean C. & Wu, Ting, 2016. "Oil price shocks and their transmission mechanism in an oil-exporting economy: A VAR analysis informed by a DSGE model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 21-49.
    20. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Luciano Zunino & Osvaldo A. Rosso, 2016. "Crude Oil Market And Geopolitical Events: An Analysis Based On Information-Theory-Based Quantifiers," Fuzzy Economic Review, International Association for Fuzzy-set Management and Economy (SIGEF), vol. 21(1), pages 41-51, May.
    21. Meng Qin & Lian-Hong Qiu & Ran Tao & Muhammad Umar & Chi-Wei Su & Wen Jiao, 2020. "The inevitable role of El Niño: a fresh insight into the oil market," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 1943-1962, January.
    22. Liu, Yang & Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang, 2021. "The impact of geopolitical uncertainty on energy volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    23. Shigeyuki Hamori, 2000. "The transmission mechanism of business cycles among Germany, Japan, the UK and the USA," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 405-410.
    24. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Blockchain: A carbon-neutral facilitator or an environmental destroyer?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 604-615.
    25. Chen, Zhonglu & Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Is investor sentiment stronger than VIX and uncertainty indices in predicting energy volatility?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    26. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_003 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Vugar Bayramov & Nabi Rustamli & Gulnara Abbas, 2020. "Collateral damage: The Western sanctions on Russia and the evaluation of implications for Russia’s post-communist neighbourhood," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 162, pages 92-109.
    28. Padma Desai, 2006. "Why Is Russian GDP Growth Slowing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 342-347, May.
    29. McLeod, Roger C.D. & Haughton, Andre Yone, 2018. "The value of the US dollar and its impact on oil prices: Evidence from a non-linear asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 61-69.
    30. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Ulbricht, Dirk & Fidrmuc, Jarko, 2016. "Between the hammer and the anvil: The impact of economic sanctions and oil prices on Russia’s ruble," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 295-308.
    31. Ivanovski, Kris & Hailemariam, Abebe, 2022. "Time-varying geopolitical risk and oil prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 206-221.
    32. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Wohar, Mark E., 2019. "What are the categories of geopolitical risks that could drive oil prices higher? Acts or threats?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    33. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    34. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Arslanturk, Yalcin, 2010. "Economic growth and energy consumption causal nexus viewed through a bootstrap rolling window," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1398-1410, November.
    35. Li, Yingli & Huang, Jianbai & Gao, Wang & Zhang, Hongwei, 2021. "Analyzing the time-frequency connectedness among oil, gold prices and BRICS geopolitical risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    36. Mironova, Vera & Whitt, Sam, 2021. "Conflict and parochialism among combatants and civilians: Evidence from Ukraine," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    37. A. Slaibi & D. Chapman & H. Daouk, 2010. "A geopolitical theory of oil price behaviour: an econometric evaluation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(22), pages 2783-2800.
    38. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Pirtea, Marilen Gabriel & Dumitrescu Peculea, Adelina, 2023. "The essential role of Russian geopolitics: A fresh perception into the gold market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    39. Ghazi Shukur & Panagiotis Mantalos, 2000. "A simple investigation of the Granger-causality test in integrated-cointegrated VAR systems," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(8), pages 1021-1031.
    40. John Russell, 2007. "Chechnya: Russia's ‘war on terror’ or ‘war terror’?," Europe-Asia Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(1), pages 163-168.
    41. Prema‐chandra Athukorala & Peter G. Warr, 2002. "Vulnerability to a Currency Crisis: Lessons from the Asian Experience," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 33-57, January.
    42. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran, 2021. "BitCoin: A new basket for eggs?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 896-907.
    43. Maghyereh, Aktham & Awartani, Basel & Abdoh, Hussein, 2020. "The effects of investor emotions sentiments on crude oil returns: A time and frequency dynamics analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 110-124.
    44. Lyall, Jason, 2010. "Are Coethnics More Effective Counterinsurgents? Evidence from the Second Chechen War," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 104(1), pages 1-20, February.
    45. Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Forecasting crude oil price volatility out-of-sample using news-based geopolitical risk index: What forms of nonlinearity help improve forecast accuracy the most?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    46. Monge, Manuel & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Pérez de Gracia, Fernando, 2017. "Crude oil price behaviour before and after military conflicts and geopolitical events," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 79-91.
    47. Bayramov, Vugar & Rustamli, Nabi & Abbas, Gulnara, 2020. "Collateral damage: The Western sanctions on Russia and the evaluation of implications for Russia’s post-communist neighbourhood," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 92-109.
    48. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Hao, Lin-Na & Tao, Ran, 2020. "The stability of U.S. economic policy: Does it really matter for oil price?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    49. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Ozdemir, 2013. "The export-output growth nexus in Japan: a bootstrap rolling window approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 639-660, April.
    50. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Is factionalism a push for gold price?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    51. Mironov, V.V. & Petronevich, A.V., 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 3/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Xiuqi & Meng, Xiangyu & Su, Chi Wei, 2024. "The security of energy import: Do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk really matter?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 377-388.
    2. Qin, Meng & Hu, Wei & Qi, Xinzhou & Chang, Tsangyao, 2024. "Do the benefits outweigh the disadvantages? Exploring the role of artificial intelligence in renewable energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    3. Zhong, Yufei & Chen, Xuesheng & Wang, Zhixian & Lin, Regina Fang-Ying, 2024. "The nexus among artificial intelligence, supply chain and energy sustainability: A time-varying analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. He, Zhifang & Sun, Hao, 2024. "The time-varying and asymmetric impacts of oil price shocks on geopolitical risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 942-957.
    5. Xu, Shuanglei & Deng, Youyi & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Geopolitical Conflict and Risk and the EU Energy Trading: A Dynamic Evolutionary Networks Analysis," Working Papers 14-2024, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    6. Kong, Fanna & Gao, Zhuoqiong & Oprean-Stan, Camelia, 2023. "Green bond in China: An effective hedge against global supply chain pressure?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Su, Chi Wei & Shao, Xuefeng & Jia, Zhijie & Nepal, Rabindra & Umar, Muhammad & Qin, Meng, 2023. "The rise of green energy metal: Could lithium threaten the status of oil?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    2. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Pirtea, Marilen Gabriel & Dumitrescu Peculea, Adelina, 2023. "The essential role of Russian geopolitics: A fresh perception into the gold market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    3. Qin, Meng & Su, Yun Hsuan & Zhao, Zhengtang & Mirza, Nawazish, 2023. "The politics of climate: Does factionalism impede U.S. carbon neutrality?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 954-966.
    4. Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Does oil price really matter for the wage arrears in Russia?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    5. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Dan & Mirza, Nawazish & Zhong, Yifan & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "The impact of consumer confidence on oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    6. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Umar, Muhammad, 2023. "Blockchain: A carbon-neutral facilitator or an environmental destroyer?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 604-615.
    7. Kong, Fanna & Gao, Zhuoqiong & Oprean-Stan, Camelia, 2023. "Green bond in China: An effective hedge against global supply chain pressure?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Sun, Yanpeng & Song, Yuru & Long, Chi & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "How to improve global environmental governance? Lessons learned from climate risk and climate policy uncertainty," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1666-1676.
    9. Qin, Meng & Hu, Wei & Qi, Xinzhou & Chang, Tsangyao, 2024. "Do the benefits outweigh the disadvantages? Exploring the role of artificial intelligence in renewable energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    10. Wang, Kai-Hua & Wen, Cui-Ping & Liu, Hong-Wen & Liu, Lu, 2023. "Promotion or hindrance? Exploring the bidirectional causality between geopolitical risk and green bonds from an energy perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    11. Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Financial implications of fourth industrial revolution: Can bitcoin improve prospects of energy investment?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    12. Wang, Kai-Hua & Liu, Lu & Li, Xin & Oana-Ramona, Lobonţ, 2022. "Do oil price shocks drive unemployment? Evidence from Russia and Canada," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    13. Sun, Yanpeng & Mirza, Nawazish & Qadeer, Abdul & Hsueh, Hsin-Pei, 2021. "Connectedness between oil and agricultural commodity prices during tranquil and volatile period. Is crude oil a victim indeed?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    14. Kai-Hua Wang & Jia-Min Kan & Cui-Feng Jiang & Chi-Wei Su, 2022. "Is Geopolitical Risk Powerful Enough to Affect Carbon Dioxide Emissions? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-16, June.
    15. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Is factionalism a push for gold price?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    16. Su, Chi-Wei & Qin, Meng & Tao, Ran & Shao, Xue-Feng & Albu, Lucian Liviu & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Can Bitcoin hedge the risks of geopolitical events?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    17. Sun, Ting-Ting & Su, Chi-Wei & Mirza, Nawazish & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "How does trade policy uncertainty affect agriculture commodity prices?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    18. Yingying Xu & Zhi‐Xin Liu & Chi‐Wei Su & Jaime Ortiz, 2019. "Gold and inflation: Expected inflation effect or carrying cost effect?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 380-398, December.
    19. Liu, Tie-Ying & Su, Chi-Wei, 2021. "Is transportation improving urbanization in China?," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran, 2021. "BitCoin: A new basket for eggs?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 896-907.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; Russian geopolitics; Causality; Non-constant;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:85:y:2023:i:pb:s0301420723006207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.