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Does a big bazooka matter? Quantitative easing policies and exchange rates

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  • Dedola, Luca
  • Georgiadis, Georgios
  • Gräb, Johannes
  • Mehl, Arnaud

Abstract

What does quantitative easing (QE) really mean for the exchange rate? This article explains how the relevant effects can be estimated using a statistical methodology derived from theory. The results suggest that QE has large and persistent effects on the USD/EUR exchange rate, mainly through shifts in exchange rate risk and short-term interest rates between the two currencies. Changes in expectations about the future monetary policy stance, reflecting the “signalling channel” of monetary policy, also affect how the USD/EUR exchange rate responds to QE. JEL Classification: F41

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  • Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Mehl, Arnaud, 2020. "Does a big bazooka matter? Quantitative easing policies and exchange rates," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 76.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbrbu:2020:0076:
    Note: 80922
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    8. Grabowski, Wojciech & Janus, Jakub & Stawasz-Grabowska, Ewa, 2023. "The COVID-19 pandemic and financial markets in Central Europe: Macroeconomic measures and international policy spillovers," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    9. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Nenova, Tsvetelina, 2022. "A tale of two global monetary policies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    10. Gnewuch, Matthias, 2022. "Spillover effects of sovereign debt-based quantitative easing in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    11. Inda Mulaahmetović, 2022. "Quantitative Easing and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(3), pages 79-98.
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    14. Mitsuru Katagiri & Koji Takahashi, 2017. "Do Term Premiums Matter? Transmission via Exchange Rate Dynamics," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    15. Cortes, Gustavo S. & Gao, George P. & Silva, Felipe B.G. & Song, Zhaogang, 2022. "Unconventional monetary policy and disaster risk: Evidence from the subprime and COVID–19 crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    16. Dedola, Luca & Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Mehl, Arnaud, 2021. "Does a big bazooka matter? Quantitative easing policies and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 489-506.
    17. Sleibi, Yacoub & Casalin, Fabrizio & Fazio, Giorgio, 2023. "Unconventional monetary policies and credit co-movement in the Eurozone," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
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    19. Katagiri, Mitsuru & Takahashi, Koji, 2023. "Do term premiums matter? Transmission via exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    20. Kim, Daehwan & Nilsen, Jeffrey, 2023. "A Gordon growth formula for wealth-income ratios and its implications on cross-country differences," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    QE dynamic effects; Signalling channels of QE; UIP and CIP deviations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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