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Crude Oil Market And Geopolitical Events: An Analysis Based On Information-Theory-Based Quantifiers

Author

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  • Aurelio F. Bariviera

    (Department of Business Management, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Spain)

  • Luciano Zunino

    (Centro de Investigaciones Ópticas (CONICET La Plata-CIC), Argentina
    Departamento de Ciencias Básicas, Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional de la Plata, Argentina.)

  • Osvaldo A. Rosso

    (Instituto de Física, Universidad Federal de Alagoas, Brazil
    Instituto Tecnológico de Buenos Aires (ITBA), Argentina
    Complex Systems Group, Universidad de los Andes, Chile)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the informational efficiency of oil market during the last three decades, and examines changes in informational efficiency with major geopolitical events, such as terrorist attacks, financial crisis and other important events. The series under study is the daily prices of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) in USD/BBL, commonly used as a benchmark in oil pricing. The analysis is performed using information-theory-derived quantifiers, namely permutation entropy and permutation statistical complexity. These metrics allow capturing the hidden structure in the market dynamics, and allow discriminating different degrees of informational efficiency. We find that some geopolitical events impact on the underlying dynamical structure of the market.

Suggested Citation

  • Aurelio F. Bariviera & Luciano Zunino & Osvaldo A. Rosso, 2016. "Crude Oil Market And Geopolitical Events: An Analysis Based On Information-Theory-Based Quantifiers," Fuzzy Economic Review, International Association for Fuzzy-set Management and Economy (SIGEF), vol. 21(1), pages 41-51, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:fzy:fuzeco:v:21:y:2016:i:1:p:41-51
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Xinghua & Lee, Zhengzheng & Wu, Shuang & Qin, Meng, 2023. "Exploring the vital role of geopolitics in the oil market: The case of Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    2. Argyroudis, George S. & Siokis, Fotios M., 2019. "Spillover effects of Great Recession on Hong-Kong’s Real Estate Market: An analysis based on Causality Plane and Tsallis Curves of Complexity–Entropy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 576-586.
    3. Parker, Edgar, 2017. "The Entropic Linkage between Equity and Bond Market Dynamics," MPRA Paper 80036, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2019. "Does geopolitical risk strengthen or depress oil prices and financial liquidity? Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    5. Li, Sufang & Tu, Dalun & Zeng, Yan & Gong, Chenggang & Yuan, Di, 2022. "Does geopolitical risk matter in crude oil and stock markets? Evidence from disaggregated data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    6. Anis Hoayek & Hassan Hamie & Hans Auer, 2020. "Modeling the Price Stability and Predictability of Post Liberalized Gas Markets Using the Theory of Information," Post-Print emse-03604655, HAL.
    7. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "A review of resource curse burden on inflation in Venezuela," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    8. Monge, Manuel & Romero Rojo, María Fátima & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko, 2023. "The impact of geopolitical risk on the behavior of oil prices and freight rates," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    9. Korotin, Vladimir & Dolgonosov, Maxim & Popov, Victor & Korotina, Olesya & Korolkova, Inna, 2019. "The Ukrainian crisis, economic sanctions, oil shock and commodity currency: Analysis based on EMD approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 156-168.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    econophysics; permutation entropy; permutation statistical complexity; WTI; informational efficiency; geopolitical events;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other

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