IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/joecas/v10y2013i1p1-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetric effects of monetary policy with or without Quantitative Easing: Empirical evidence for the US

Author

Listed:
  • Karras, Georgios

Abstract

Several rounds of Quantitative Easing since the financial crisis of 2008 have resulted in very large expansions in the monetary base of the US and other economies. This paper asks whether the effects of Quantitative Easing are subject to the asymmetries that have been established for more conventional monetary policies. Using US quarterly data from the 1950–2011 period, monetary base shocks and their effects on real GDP and industrial production are estimated. First, the paperʼs findings strongly support sign asymmetry: with or without Quantitative Easing, monetary base contractions have larger effects than monetary base expansions (the effects of which are often statistically insignificant). This characterizes both permanent and temporary (four-year) shocks to the monetary base. Second, there is also evidence of size asymmetry: the effectiveness of monetary base shocks declines with their size. Size asymmetry is found for both positive and negative monetary base shocks, but it appears to be stronger for negative shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Karras, Georgios, 2013. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy with or without Quantitative Easing: Empirical evidence for the US," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:10:y:2013:i:1:p:1-9
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeca.2013.04.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1703494913000029
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeca.2013.04.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 22-51, February.
    2. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 341-370, February.
    3. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Piti Disyatat, 2010. "Central bank tools and liquidity shortages," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Aug), pages 29-42.
    4. Barro, Robert J, 1977. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 101-115, March.
    5. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2011. "The central-bank balance sheet as an instrument of monetarypolicy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 54-79, January.
    6. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1982. "Does Anticipated Aggregate Demand Policy Matter? Further Econometric Results," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 788-802, September.
    7. Nelson, Edward, 2013. "Friedman's monetary economics in practice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 59-83.
    8. George Kapetanios & Haroon Mumtaz & Ibrahim Stevens & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Assessing the Economy‐wide Effects of Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 316-347, November.
    9. Alan S. Blinder, 2010. "Quantitative easing: entrance and exit strategies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Nov), pages 465-480.
    10. James Peery Cover, 1992. "Asymmetric Effects of Positive and Negative Money-Supply Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1261-1282.
    11. Marianne Sensier & Denise R. Osborn & Nadir Öcal, 2002. "Asymmetric Interest Rate Effects for the UK Real Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 315-339, September.
    12. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Are the Output Effects of Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Sample of European Countries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 267-278, May.
    13. Barro, Robert J, 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 549-580, August.
    14. repec:bla:jecsur:v:18:y:2004:i::p:409-426 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2011. "The Financial Market Effects of the Federal Reserve's Large-Scale Asset Purchases," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 3-43, March.
    16. Anna Florio, 2004. "The Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 409-426, July.
    17. Lo, Ming Chien & Piger, Jeremy, 2005. "Is the Response of Output to Monetary Policy Asymmetric? Evidence from a Regime-Switching Coefficients Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 865-886, October.
    18. Bruinshoofd, Allard & Candelon, Bertrand, 2005. "Nonlinear monetary policy in Europe: fact or myth?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 399-403, March.
    19. repec:bla:obuest:v:64:y:2002:i:4:p:315-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Convex aggregate supply or "pushing on a string"?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-619.
    21. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2010. "The Lessons from the Banking Panics in the United States in the 1930s for the Financial Crisis of 2007-2008," NBER Working Papers 16365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Alan S. Blinder, 2010. "Quantitative easing: entrance and exit strategies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Nov), pages 465-480.
    23. Morten O. Ravn & Martin Sola, 2004. "Asymmetric effects of monetary policy in the United States," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Sep), pages 41-60.
    24. Richard G. Anderson & Charles S. Gascon & Yang Liu, 2010. "Doubling your monetary base and surviving: some international experience," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Nov), pages 481-506.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pei-Fen Chen & Jhih-Hong Zeng & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Diversification–Profitability Linkage in Banking: Evidences from Emerging Market Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 576-597, December.
    2. Calvin He, 2021. "Monetary Policy, Equity Markets and the Information Effect," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-04, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Wang, Xinghua & Lee, Zhengzheng & Wu, Shuang & Qin, Meng, 2023. "Exploring the vital role of geopolitics in the oil market: The case of Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    4. Bitros, George C., 2021. "Destabilizing asymmetries in central banking: With some enlightenment from money in classical Athens," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    5. Alexandros Kontonikas & Charles Nolan & Zivile Zekaite & Michael Lamla, 2019. "Treasuries variance decomposition and the impact of monetary policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 1506-1519, October.
    6. Laine, Olli-Matti & Pihlajamaa, Matias, 2023. "Asymmetric effects of conventional and unconventional monetary policy when rates are low," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 3/2023, Bank of Finland.
    7. Imran Shah & Francesca Schmidt-Fischer & Issam Malki, 2018. "The portfolio balance channel: an analysis on the impact of quantitative easing on the US stock market," Department of Economics Working Papers 74/18, University of Bath, Department of Economics.
    8. Nguyen, Hoai Thi Thanh & Tram, Huong Thi Xuan & Nguyen, Linh Thi Thuy, 2023. "Interest rates and systemic risk:Evidence from the Vietnamese economy," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    9. Alexandros Kontonikas & Charles Nolan & Zivile Zekaite, 2015. "Always and Everywhere Inflation? Treasuries Variance Decomposition and the Impact of Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2015_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    10. Shah, Imran Hussain & Schmidt-Fischer, Francesca & Malki, Issam & Hatfield, Richard, 2019. "A structural break approach to analysing the impact of the QE portfolio balance channel on the US stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 204-220.
    11. Tzu-Kuang Hsu & Chin-Chang Tsai, 2017. "Explore the Impact of the Trading Value, The Oil Price and Quantitative Easing Policy on the Taiwan and Korea Stock Market Return with Quantile Regression," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(1), pages 15-26, January.
    12. Martin Bruns & Michele Piffer, 2021. "Monetary policy shocks over the business cycle: Extending the Smooth Transition framework," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-07, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
    13. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Transmission of US and EU Economic Policy Uncertainty Shock to Asian Economies in Bad and Good Times," IZA Discussion Papers 13274, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Stockwell, Thomas, 2023. "Should models of monetary policy asymmetry include interaction terms?," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    15. Lau, Wee-Yeap & Yip, Tien-Ming, 2020. "How do monetary transmission channels influence inflation in the short and long run? Evidence from the QQE regime in Japan," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    16. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zakir, Nadia & Malik, Wasim Shahid, 2013. "Are the effects of monetary policy on output asymmetric in Pakistan?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1-9.
    2. Bitros, George C., 2021. "Destabilizing asymmetries in central banking: With some enlightenment from money in classical Athens," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    3. Zakaria Babutsidze, 2012. "Asymmetric (S,s) Pricing: Implications for Monetary Policy," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 177-204.
    4. Olanrewaju, Akanbi Michael & Temitope, Dada James, 2018. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Industrial Output in Nigeria: A Dynamic Effect," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 6(1), January.
    5. Randall E. Parker & Philip Rothman, 2004. "An Examination of the Asymmetric Effects of Money Supply Shocks in the Pre--World War I and Interwar Periods," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(1), pages 88-100, January.
    6. Zare , Roohollah, 2015. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy and Business Cycles in Iran using Markov-switching Models," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 10(4), pages 125-142, October.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9l564lcia3 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Karras, Georgios & Stokes, Houston H., 1999. "Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Evidence from prices, consumption, and investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 713-727.
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9l564lcia3 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Karras, Georgios, 1996. "Why are the effects of money-supply shocks asymmetric? Convex aggregate supply or "pushing on a string"?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 605-619.
    11. Karras, Georgios, 1999. "Openness and the effects of monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 13-26, January.
    12. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2017. "Financial Depth and the Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(6), pages 1195-1218, December.
    13. Babutsidze, Zakaria, 2006. "(S,s) Pricing: Does the Heterogeneity Wipe Out the Asymmetry on Micro Level?," MERIT Working Papers 2006-033, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    14. Ali F. Darrat, 1985. "Does Anticipated Fiscal Policy Matter? The Italian Evidence," Public Finance Review, , vol. 13(3), pages 339-352, July.
    15. Richard Robinson & Marwan El Nasser, 2013. "Decomposing US Money Supply Changes since the Financial Crisis," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 1(2), pages 1-13, June.
    16. Jackson, Laura E. & Owyang, Michael T. & Soques, Daniel, 2018. "Nonlinearities, smoothing and countercyclical monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 136-154.
    17. Edoardo GAFFEO & Ivan PETRELLA & Damjan PFAJFAR & Emiliano SANTORO, 2010. "Reference-dependent preferences and the transmission of monetary policy," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces10.28, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    18. Cerqueira, Vinícius Dos Santos & Ribeiro, Márcio Bruno & Martinez, Thiago Sevilhano, 2014. "Propagação Assimétrica de Choques Monetários na Economia Brasileira: Evidências com base em um modelo vetorial não-linear de transição suave," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(1), April.
    19. Régis Barnichon & Christian Matthes, 2014. "Gaussian Mixture Approximations of Impulse Responses and the Nonlinear Effects of Monetary Shocks," Working Paper 16-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    20. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    21. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    22. Paul Oslington, 2012. "General Equilibrium: Theory and Evidence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 88(282), pages 446-448, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joecas:v:10:y:2013:i:1:p:1-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/the-journal-of-economic-asymmetries/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.