IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cii/cepiie/2020-q2-162-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Collateral damage: The Western sanctions on Russia and the evaluation of implications for Russia’s post-communist neighbourhood

Author

Listed:
  • Vugar Bayramov
  • Nabi Rustamli
  • Gulnara Abbas

Abstract

This paper reviews the Western sanctions on Russia and endeavours to evaluate the medium-term implications of these sanctions for post-communist neighbours of Russia. Growth spillovers are examined via VAR model. This model reveals that the Western sanctions against Russia have significant impact on Russia’s post-communist neighbours: the accumulated response of CIS GDP to a 1% shock to Russian GDP is -0.72, while the accumulated response of CEE GDP is -0.22. Export, remittance and FDI links of these countries with Russia are examined using panel regressions. Almost all CEE countries are less integrated with Russia compared to CIS countries. Oil and gas exporting CIS countries are not directly dependent on Russia. The remaining CIS countries are the most vulnerable group, and the remittance channel retains its importance for their economies. Costs of Western sanctions for the CIS countries can be minimised by integrating these implications to the design and implementation process of sanctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Vugar Bayramov & Nabi Rustamli & Gulnara Abbas, 2020. "Collateral damage: The Western sanctions on Russia and the evaluation of implications for Russia’s post-communist neighbourhood," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 162, pages 92-109.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2020-q2-162-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S211070171830297X
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Xinghua & Lee, Zhengzheng & Wu, Shuang & Qin, Meng, 2023. "Exploring the vital role of geopolitics in the oil market: The case of Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    2. Sedrakyan, Gohar Samvel, 2022. "Ukraine war-induced sanctions against Russia: Consequences on transition economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 863-885.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Western sanctions; Russia; CIS; CEE countries; Baltic states; Spillover channels;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepiie:2020-q2-162-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cepiifr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.