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Is factionalism a push for gold price?

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  • Qin, Meng
  • Su, Chi-Wei
  • Tao, Ran
  • Umar, Muhammad

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of factionalism in pushing for gold price (GP) from the perspective of the U.S. partisan conflicts (PCI). We examine the Granger causality between these two variables through the full- and sub-sample rolling-window bootstrap tests, the time-varying relationship between PCI and GP can be observed. There are positive influences from PCI to GP, which indicates that factionalism can be considered as a push for the price of gold. This result is supported by the inter-temporal capital asset pricing model, which underlines that GP will change in the same direction as PCI. Conversely, the negative effects from GP to PCI highlight that gold market can be viewed as a tool to predict the U.S. political conditions. In the context of more serious factionalism in U.S., the interaction mechanism between partisan conflicts and gold price can provide insights for the investors to adjust investment decisions and maintain wealth, and for governments to increase the public confidence and stabilize the civil strife.

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  • Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "Is factionalism a push for gold price?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:67:y:2020:i:c:s030142071930604x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101679
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Partisan conflicts; Gold price; Granger causality; Time-varying;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • N42 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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