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Vulnerability to a Currency Crisis: Lessons from the Asian Experience

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  • Prema‐chandra Athukorala
  • Peter G. Warr

Abstract

Are currency crises caused by manias and panics in financial markets, or by unsustainable deteriorations in domestic macroeconomic conditions? This question is explored in the context of the recent Asian currency crisis. The theoretical concept of vulnerability is used to identify three early‐warning indicators of susceptibility to a currency crisis: rapid accumulation of mobile capital; domestic lending booms; and overvalued exchange rates. It is shown that the crisis and noncrisis countries of Asia may be distinguished empirically, using these indicators, over the decade preceding the crisis. This exercise provides convincing evidence that the crisis emanated largely from domestic macroeconomic conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Prema‐chandra Athukorala & Peter G. Warr, 2002. "Vulnerability to a Currency Crisis: Lessons from the Asian Experience," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 33-57, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:25:y:2002:i:1:p:33-57
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9701.00419
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Warr, 2002. "Crisis Vulnerability," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 16(1), pages 36-47, May.
    2. Al-Abri, Almukhtar & Baghestani, Hamid, 2015. "Foreign investment and real exchange rate volatility in emerging Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 34-47.
    3. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Sisira Jayasuriya, 2015. "Victory in War and Defeat in Peace: Politics and Economics of Post-Conflict Sri Lanka," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 14(3), pages 22-54, Fall.
    4. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2008. "The Malaysian Capital Controls: A Success Story?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 7(1), pages 31-74, Winter.
    5. Safdar Ullah Khan & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2008. "An Analysis of Pakistan's Vulnerability to Crisis," SBP Working Paper Series 21, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    6. Menon, Jayant, 2009. "Macroeconomic management amid ethnic diversity: Fifty years of Malaysian experience," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 25-33, January.
    7. Shahid Hussain Javaid, 2009. "Dutch Disease Investigated: Empirical Evidence from Selected South-East Asian Economies," SBP Working Paper Series 31, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    8. Schröder, Marcel, 2017. "Mercantilism and China's hunger for international reserves," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 15-33.
    9. Juthathip Jongwanich, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes, Capital Account Opening and Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Thailand," Departmental Working Papers 2006-01, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    10. Puspa D. Amri & Thomas D. Willett, 2017. "Policy Inconsistencies and the Political Economy of Currency Crises," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-24, February.
    11. Wang, Xinghua & Lee, Zhengzheng & Wu, Shuang & Qin, Meng, 2023. "Exploring the vital role of geopolitics in the oil market: The case of Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    12. Walter, Stefanie, 2008. "A New Approach for Determining Exchange-Rate Level Preferences," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(3), pages 405-438, July.
    13. Mardi Dungey & Rene Fry & Vance L. Martin, 2006. "Correlation, Contagion, and Asian Evidence," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 5(2), pages 32-72, Spring/Su.
    14. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan & Lestano, 2010. "Financial crises in Asia: concordance by asset market or country?," Working Papers 10575, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 01 Nov 2010.
    15. Aswicahyono, Haryo & Bird, Kelly & Hill, Hal, 2009. "Making Economic Policy in Weak, Democratic, Post-crisis States: An Indonesian Case Study," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 354-370, February.
    16. Hal Hill, 2012. "The Best of Times and the Worst of Times: Indonesia and Economic Crises," Departmental Working Papers 2012-03, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    17. Safdar Ullah Khan & Omar Farooq Saqib, 2007. "An Analysis of Pakistan s Vulnerability to Economic Crisis," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 597-610.
    18. Prema‐Chandra Athukorala & Sarath Rajapatirana, 2003. "Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: A Comparative Study of Asia and Latin America," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 613-637, April.
    19. Hal Hill, 2018. "Southeast Asia in the global economy: a selective analytical survey," Departmental Working Papers 2018-12, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    20. Juthathip Jongwanich, 2008. "Real exchange rate overvaluation and currency crisis: evidence from Thailand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 373-382.
    21. Pemasiri J Gunawardana & Ramya Hewarathna, 2000. "The Asian Crisis and Australia-East Asia Trade Flows: A Modified Gravity Approach," Working Papers 2000.13, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    22. Thomas Lagoarde‐Segot & Brian M. Lucey, 2009. "Shift‐contagion Vulnerability in the MENA Stock Markets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(10), pages 1478-1497, October.
    23. Ross H McLeod, 2003. "Rethinking vulnerability to currency crises: Comments on Athukorala and Warr," Departmental Working Papers 2003-11, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.

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