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The long-term consequences of external debt: Revisiting the evidence and inspecting the mechanism using panel VARs

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  • Qureshi, Irfan
  • Liaqat, Zara

Abstract

We estimate a panel vector autoregression model to examine the relationship between external debt and economic growth. We use a large dataset based on 123 countries, classified according to income levels over the period 1990–2015. While total external debt appears to have a negative effect on growth rate overall, it is positively associated with income growth in the lower- and upper-middle income countries. Further disaggregating external debt into its components reveals that public external debt negatively affects economic growth across all income categories of countries, whereas the impact of private external debt is not statistically significant. We do not detect a common threshold level in the relationship between public debt and economic growth across countries. Savings and investment are the primary channels through which external debt impacts economic growth. These results are robust to various model specifications, additional controls, and identifying restrictions.

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  • Qureshi, Irfan & Liaqat, Zara, 2020. "The long-term consequences of external debt: Revisiting the evidence and inspecting the mechanism using panel VARs," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:63:y:2020:i:c:s0164070419302332
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2019.103184
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    2. Virtue U. Ekhosuehi, 2021. "Optimal control of external debt for a developing economy," OPSEARCH, Springer;Operational Research Society of India, vol. 58(4), pages 889-905, December.
    3. Kacou, Kacou Yves Thierry & Kassouri, Yacouba & Evrard, Talnan Hongwopena & Altuntaş, Mehmet, 2022. "Trade openness, export structure, and labor productivity in developing countries: Evidence from panel VAR approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 194-205.
    4. Fengsheng Chien & Ka Yin Chau & Talla M. Aldeehani & Pham Quang Huy & Luc Phan Tan & Muhammad Mohsin, 2022. "Does external debt as a new determinants of fiscal policy influence sustainable economic growth: implications after COVID-19," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1717-1737, August.
    5. Adewale Samuel Hassan, 2022. "Does Country Risk Influence Foreign Direct Investment Inflows? A Case of the Visegrád Four," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-22, September.
    6. Helder Ferreira de Mendonça & Ytallo Brito, 2021. "The link between public debt and investment: an empirical assessment from emerging markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(50), pages 5864-5876, October.
    7. Taner Turan & Halit Yanıkkaya, 2021. "External debt, growth and investment for developing countries: some evidence for the debt overhang hypothesis," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(3), pages 319-341, September.
    8. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil & Alancioğlu, Erdal & Kacou, Kacou Yves Thierry, 2021. "New insights on the debt-growth nexus: A combination of the interactive fixed effects and panel threshold approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 40-55.
    9. Rima Aloulou & Maha Kalai & Kamel Helali, 2023. "The symmetric and asymmetric impacts of external debt on economic growth in Tunisia: evidence from linear and nonlinear ARDL models," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(7), pages 1-28, July.
    10. Adewale Hassan & Daniel Meyer, 2021. "Exploring the Channels of Transmission between External Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-16, April.
    11. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Bambe, Bao-We-Wal & Combes, Jean-Louis & Edoh, Eyah Denise, 2024. "Original sin: Fiscal rules and government debt in foreign currency in developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    12. Hiep Ngoc Luu & Nguyen Hanh Luu & Huong Thi Thu Phung, 2024. "Would external debts promote sustainable development in emerging and low‐income countries?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 1110-1128, March.
    13. Yung‐ho Chiu & Kuei‐Ying Huang & Tai‐Yu Lin & Tzu‐Han Chang, 2022. "Government debt and fiscal execution efficiency," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(1), pages 111-128, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    External debt; Public debt; Private debt; Debt threshold; Economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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