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The Impact of Sovereign Debt on Growth: An Empirical Study on GIIPS versus JUUSD Countries

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  • Haytham Y.M. Ewaida

Abstract

This study aims at concluding the general debt impact on economic growth for two different groups of countries during the period (1993-2013). Results showed negative impact of public debt on economic growth on short and long terms. Impact percentage differs according to countries and interpretive variables that interpret the relationship.Negative impact of debt starts from levels between 60-90% of gross domestic product on long term; its impact becomes bigger on long and short terms when percentage is higher than 90% of gross domestic product, whereas raise of public debt by 10% leads into decreasing economic growth by 1-2% in average.Results showed that the variables which affect the economic growth the most are savings/ investment, population growth, long and short terms of nominal interest rate, current account balance, private credit, inflation, Government budget primary balance, and debt service. Study results also revealed that banking crisis and double crisis are the most negatively reflecting crisis on the economic growth.

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  • Haytham Y.M. Ewaida, 2017. "The Impact of Sovereign Debt on Growth: An Empirical Study on GIIPS versus JUUSD Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2A), pages 607-633.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:journl:v:xx:y:2017:i:2a:p:607-633
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    2. Talknice Saungweme & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Does Public Debt Impact Economic Growth in Zambia? An Ardl-Bounds Testing Approach," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(4), pages 53-73, October-D.
    3. Nikolaos Filippakis & Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos, 2021. "Public Debt and Economic Growth: A Review of Contemporary Literature," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 19(1), pages 33-50.
    4. Nur Hayati Abd Rahman & Shafinar Ismail & Eeng Ahman & Aas Nurasyiah & Neni Sri Wulandari, 2021. "The effect of regulatory performance on economic growth," Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Issues, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 8(3), pages 604-617, March.
    5. Ioana Manuela Mîndrican, 2020. "Sovereign debt crisis management by the European Central Bank," Journal of Financial Studies, Institute of Financial Studies, vol. 9(5), pages 124-133, November.
    6. Saungweme, Talknice & Odhiambo, Nicholas M, 2019. "Relative impact of domestic and foreign public debt on economic growth in South Africa," Working Papers 25664, University of South Africa, Department of Economics.
    7. Abdul Jalil, 2020. "Debt Sustainability: Economic Growth is the Panacea," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2020:19, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt; Economic growth; Deflation; Fiscal policy; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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