IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/jecsur/v37y2023i4p1061-1089.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do higher public debt levels reduce economic growth?

Author

Listed:
  • Philipp Heimberger

Abstract

While the effect of higher public debt levels on economic growth has received much attention, the literature partly points to contradictory results. This paper applies meta‐regression methods to 816 estimates from 47 primary studies. The unweighted mean of the reported results suggests that a 10 percentage points increase in public‐debt‐to‐GDP is associated with a decline in annual growth rates by 0.14 percentage points, with a 95% confidence interval from 0.09 to 0.19 percentage points. However, we cannot reject a zero effect after correcting for publication bias. Furthermore, the meta‐regression analysis shows that tackling endogeneity between public debt and growth leads to less adverse effects of public debt. In testing for nonlinear effects, our results do not point to a uniform public‐debt‐to‐GDP threshold beyond which growth slows. Threshold estimates are sensitive to data and econometric choices. These findings imply a lack of evidence of a consistently negative growth effect of higher public‐debt‐to‐GDP. The main policy implication is that there should be caution with regard to “one‐size‐fits‐all” fiscal policy prescriptions in dealing with higher public debt levels.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Heimberger, 2023. "Do higher public debt levels reduce economic growth?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1061-1089, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:37:y:2023:i:4:p:1061-1089
    DOI: 10.1111/joes.12536
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/joes.12536
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/joes.12536?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Taisuke Imai & Tom A Rutter & Colin F Camerer, 2021. "Meta-Analysis of Present-Bias Estimation using Convex Time Budgets," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(636), pages 1788-1814.
    2. Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2014. "Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(2), pages 257-279.
    3. John P. A. Ioannidis & T. D. Stanley & Hristos Doucouliagos, 2017. "The Power of Bias in Economics Research," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(605), pages 236-265, October.
    4. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Growth and productivity: The role of government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 384-407.
    5. Balẳ Égert, 2015. "The 90% public debt threshold: the rise and fall of a stylized fact," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3756-3770, July.
    6. Atish R. Ghosh & Jun I. Kim & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2013. "Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 4-30, February.
    7. Petra Valickova & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2015. "Financial Development And Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 506-526, July.
    8. Proaño, Christian R. & Schoder, Christian & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial stress, sovereign debt and economic activity in industrialized countries: Evidence from dynamic threshold regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 17-37.
    9. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    10. Balázs Égert, 2015. "Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-238.
    11. Zigraiova, Diana & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2021. "How puzzling is the forward premium puzzle? A meta-analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    12. Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Damiano Sandri & John Simon, 2014. "Debt and Growth: Is There a Magic Threshold?," IMF Working Papers 2014/034, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Philipp Rother, 2014. "Fiscal sustainability using growth-maximizing debt targets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 638-647, February.
    14. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2015. "Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 45-58.
    15. Fatás, Antonio & Summers, Lawrence H., 2018. "The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 238-250.
    16. Gechert, Sebastian & Heimberger, Philipp, 2022. "Do corporate tax cuts boost economic growth?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    17. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
    18. Furukawa, Chishio, 2019. "Publication Bias under Aggregation Frictions: Theory, Evidence, and a New Correction Method," EconStor Preprints 194798, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    19. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    20. Eberhardt, Markus, 2019. "Nonlinearities In The Relationship Between Debt And Growth: (No) Evidence From Over Two Centuries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(4), pages 1563-1585, June.
    21. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1392-1405.
    22. Teles, Vladimir K. & Cesar Mussolini, Caio, 2014. "Public debt and the limits of fiscal policy to increase economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-15.
    23. Bajzik, Josef & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Schwarz, Jiri, 2020. "Estimating the Armington elasticity: The importance of study design and publication bias," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    24. Isaiah Andrews & Maximilian Kasy, 2019. "Identification of and Correction for Publication Bias," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2766-2794, August.
    25. Andrew Bell & Ron Johnston & Kelvyn Jones, 2015. "Stylised fact or situated messiness? The diverse effects of increasing debt on national economic growth," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 449-472.
    26. Blyth, Mark, 2013. "Austerity: The History of a Dangerous Idea," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199828302.
    27. El Mostafa Bentour, 2021. "On the public debt and growth threshold: one size does not necessarily fit all," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(11), pages 1280-1299, March.
    28. Suzanne J. Konzelmann, 2014. "The political economics of austerity," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 38(4), pages 701-741.
    29. Yang, Lixiong & Su, Jen-Je, 2018. "Debt and growth: Is there a constant tipping point?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 133-143.
    30. Schclarek, Alfredo, 2004. "Debt and Economic Growth in Developing and Industrial Countries," Working Papers 2005:34, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    31. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
    32. Nur Hayati Abd Rahman & Shafinar Ismail & Abdul Rahim Ridzuan, 2019. "How does public debt affect economic growth? A systematic review," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1701339-170, January.
    33. David Moher & Alessandro Liberati & Jennifer Tetzlaff & Douglas G Altman & The PRISMA Group, 2009. "Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses: The PRISMA Statement," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 6(7), pages 1-6, July.
    34. Mohammed Ziaur Rehman & Nasir Ali & Najeeb Muhammad Nasir, 2015. "Financial Development, Savings and Economic Growth: Evidence from Bahrain Using VAR," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(2), pages 112-123, April.
    35. Steven M Fazzari & Piero Ferri & Anna Maria Variato, 2020. "Demand-led growth and accommodating supply," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(3), pages 583-605.
    36. Arčabić Vladimir & Tica Josip & Lee Junsoo & Sonora Robert J., 2018. "Public debt and economic growth conundrum: nonlinearity and inter-temporal relationship," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-20, February.
    37. Sebastian Gechert, 2022. "Reconsidering macroeconomic policy prescriptions with meta-analysis [Statistical nonsignificance in empirical economics]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 576-590.
    38. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
    39. T. D. Stanley, 2005. "Beyond Publication Bias," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 309-345, July.
    40. J. Bradford DeLong & Lawrence H. Summers, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 233-297.
    41. Alfred Greiner, 2013. "Debt and growth: Is there a non-monotonic relation?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 340-347.
    42. Cochrane, John H., 2011. "Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 2-30, January.
    43. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana, 2011. "Estimating vertical spillovers from FDI: Why results vary and what the true effect is," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 234-244.
    44. Chris Doucouliagos & T.D. Stanley, 2013. "Are All Economic Facts Greatly Exaggerated? Theory Competition And Selectivity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(2), pages 316-339, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giraldo, Carlos & Giraldo, Iader & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Uribe, Jorge M., 2025. "R&D Investment and Financial Stability," Documentos de trabajo 21327, FLAR.
    2. McCartney, Gerry & Hill O'Connor, Clementine & Laughlin, Sue & Robertson, Tony & Bunse, Lukas & Crighton, Matthew & McLeod, Aileen & Cochrane, Phoebe & Stuart, Francis & Black, Iain & McMaster, Robert, 2025. "Evidence review to support the development of a Wellbeing Economy strategy in Scotland," Working Paper Series 01/2025, Post-Growth Economics Network (PEN).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Philipp Heimberger, 2021. "Do Higher Public Debt Levels Reduce Economic Growth?," wiiw Working Papers 211, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    2. İbrahim Özmen & Mihai Mutascu, 2024. "Public Debt and Growth: New Insights," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 8706-8736, June.
    3. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil & Luo, Yun, 2018. "Revisiting the bi-directional causality between debt and growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-74.
    4. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2017. "Heterogeneity in the debt-growth nexus: Evidence from EMU countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 470-486.
    5. Attard, Juergen, 2019. "Public Debt and Economic Growth nexus: A Dynamic Panel ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 96023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Nikolaos Antonakakis, 2014. "Sovereign Debt and Economic Growth Revisited: The Role of (Non-)Sustainable Debt Thresholds," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp187, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    7. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    8. Ikonen, Pasi, 2017. "Financial depth, debt, and growth," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number e51, July.
    9. Panizza, Ugo & Fatás, Antonio & Ghosh, Atish R. & ,, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," CEPR Discussion Papers 13735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Bitar, Nicholas & Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2018. "Were Reinhart and Rogoff right?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 614-620.
    11. Michael Chletsos & Andreas Sintos, 2023. "Financial development and income inequality: A meta‐analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1090-1119, September.
    12. Zixi Liu, 2015. "Do debt and growth dance together? A DSGE model of a small open economy with sovereign debt," Working Papers 2015.05, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    13. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2015. "“Short-run and long-run effects of public debt on economic performance: Evidence from EMU countries”," IREA Working Papers 201522, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Sep 2015.
    14. Kassouri, Yacouba & Altıntaş, Halil & Alancioğlu, Erdal & Kacou, Kacou Yves Thierry, 2021. "New insights on the debt-growth nexus: A combination of the interactive fixed effects and panel threshold approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 40-55.
    15. Roberto Tamborini & Matteo Tomaselli, 2020. "When does public debt impair economic growth? A literature review in search of a theory," DEM Working Papers 2020/7, Department of Economics and Management.
    16. Roberto Tamborini, 2024. "Good Debt or Bad Debt?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11503, CESifo.
    17. Jindrich Matousek & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova, 2022. "Individual discount rates: a meta-analysis of experimental evidence," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(1), pages 318-358, February.
    18. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran & Kamiar Mohaddes, 2020. "Identifying Global and National Output and Fiscal Policy Shocks Using a GVAR," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of Cheng Hsiao, volume 41, pages 143-189, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    19. Irsova, Zuzana & Doucouliagos, Hristos & Havranek, Tomas & Stanley, T. D., 2023. "Meta-Analysis of Social Science Research: A Practitioner’s Guide," EconStor Preprints 273719, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    20. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 92, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:37:y:2023:i:4:p:1061-1089. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0950-0804 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.