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What is the Contribution of Mexican Immigration to U.S. Crime Rates? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in Mexico

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  • Aaron Chalfin

Abstract

This paper identifies a causal effect of Mexican immigration on crime using an instrument that leverages temporal variation in rainfall in different regions in Mexico as well as persistence in regional Mexico–U.S. migration networks. The intuition behind the instrument is that deviations in Mexican weather patterns isolate quasi-random variation in the assignment of Mexican immigrants to U.S. cities. My findings indicate that Mexican immigration is associated with no appreciable change in the rates of either violent or property crimes in U.S. cities.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Chalfin, 2014. "What is the Contribution of Mexican Immigration to U.S. Crime Rates? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in Mexico," American Law and Economics Review, American Law and Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 220-268.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:amlawe:v:16:y:2014:i:1:p:220-268.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/aler/aht019
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    Cited by:

    1. Eva-Maria Egger, 2022. "Internal Migration and Crime in Brazil," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71(1), pages 223-259.
    2. Monica Langella & Alan Manning, 2019. "Diversity and Neighbourhood Satisfaction," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(624), pages 3219-3255.
    3. Knight, Brian & Tribin, Ana, 2023. "Immigration and violent crime: Evidence from the Colombia-Venezuela Border," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    4. Ismael Gálvez-Iniesta & José L. Groizard, 2021. "Undocumented Migration and Electoral Support: Evidence From Spain," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(4), pages 196-209.
    5. Francesco Fasani, 2018. "Immigrant crime and legal status: evidence from repeated amnesty programs," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(4), pages 887-914.
    6. Mariani, Fabio & Mercier, Marion, 2021. "Immigration and crime: The role of self-selection and institutions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 538-564.
    7. Nelly Exbrayat & Victor Stephane, 2024. "Does Urbanization Cause Crime? Evidence from Rural-Urban Migration in South Africa," Working Papers 2401, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    8. Bucheli, José R. & Fontenla, Matías & Waddell, Benjamin James, 2019. "Return migration and violence," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 113-124.
    9. Zhang, Yinjuejie & Palma, Marco & Xu, Zhicheng, 2016. "Effects of the Alabama HB 56 Immigration Law on Crime: A Synthetic Control Approach," 2016 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2016, San Antonio, Texas 229780, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    10. Mehmood, Shafaqat & Ahmad, Zahid & Khan, Ather Azim, 2016. "Dynamic relationships between tourist arrivals, immigrants, and crimes in the United States," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 383-392.
    11. Diane Charlton & Alexander James & Brock Smith, 2022. "Seasonal agricultural activity and crime," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(2), pages 530-549, March.
    12. Lilik Sugiharti & Rudi Purwono & Miguel Angel Esquivias & Hilda Rohmawati, 2023. "The Nexus between Crime Rates, Poverty, and Income Inequality: A Case Study of Indonesia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-15, February.
    13. Huang, Yue & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2019. "Immigration and Crimes against Natives: The 2015 Refugee Crisis in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 12469, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Ajzenman, Nicolas & Dominguez-Rivera, Patricio & Undurraga, Raimundo, 2021. "Immigration, Crime, and Crime (Mis)Perceptions," IZA Discussion Papers 14087, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Estelle, Sarah M. & Phillips, David C., 2018. "Smart sentencing guidelines: The effect of marginal policy changes on recidivism," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 270-293.
    16. Billy, Alexander & Packard, Michael, 2022. "Crime and the Mariel Boatlift," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. Aaron Chalfin, 2015. "The Long-Run Effect of Mexican Immigration on Crime in US Cities: Evidence from Variation in Mexican Fertility Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 220-225, May.
    18. Rita Maghularia & Silke Uebelmesser, 2019. "Do Immigrants Affect Crime? Evidence from Panel Data for Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 7696, CESifo.
    19. Maghularia, Rita & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2023. "Do immigrants affect crime? Evidence for Germany," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 486-512.
    20. Thomas J. Miles & Adam B. Cox, 2014. "Does Immigration Enforcement Reduce Crime? Evidence from Secure Communities," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 57(4), pages 937-973.

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