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Outcome Bias in Self-evaluations: Quasi-experimental Field Evidence of Swiss Driving License Exams

Author

Listed:
  • Pascal Flurin Meier

    (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich)

  • Raphael Flepp

    (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich)

  • Philippe Meier

    (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich)

  • Egon Franck

    (Department of Business Administration, University of Zurich)

Abstract

Employing a quasi-experimental field setting, we examine whether people are outcome biased when self-evaluating their past decisions. Using data from Swiss driving license exams, we find that candidates who narrowly passed the theoretical driving exam are significantly less likely to pass the subsequent practical driving exam – which is taken several months after the theoretical exam – relative to those who failed narrowly. The candidates who passed the theoretical exam in their first attempt received more objections in momentary, on-the-spot kinds of decisions, consistent with the idea that worse preparation is the underlying behavioral difference.

Suggested Citation

  • Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Philippe Meier & Egon Franck, 2022. "Outcome Bias in Self-evaluations: Quasi-experimental Field Evidence of Swiss Driving License Exams," Working Papers 392, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    • Handle: RePEc:zrh:wpaper:392
    as

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    File URL: http://repec.business.uzh.ch/RePEc/zrh/wpaper/392_IBW_full.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Max H. Farrell & Rocío Titiunik, 2019. "Regression Discontinuity Designs Using Covariates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(3), pages 442-451, July.
    2. Raphael Flepp & Pascal Flurin Meier, 2024. "Struck by Luck: Noisy Capability Cues and CEO Dismissal," Working Papers 389, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    3. Lars Lefgren & Brennan Platt & Joseph Price, 2015. "Sticking with What (Barely) Worked: A Test of Outcome Bias," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(5), pages 1121-1136, May.
    4. Matias D. Cattaneo & Nicolas Idrobo & Rocio Titiunik, 2019. "A Practical Introduction to Regression Discontinuity Designs: Foundations," Papers 1911.09511, arXiv.org.
    5. Matias D. Cattaneo & Roc ́ıo Titiunik & Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare, 2016. "Inference in regression discontinuity designs under local randomization," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 16(2), pages 331-367, June.
    6. Romain Gauriot & Lionel Page, 2019. "Fooled by Performance Randomness: Overrewarding Luck," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 101(4), pages 658-666, October.
    7. Burt S. Barnow & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocío Titiunik & Gonzalo Vazquez‐Bare, 2017. "Comparing Inference Approaches for RD Designs: A Reexamination of the Effect of Head Start on Child Mortality," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(3), pages 643-681, June.
    8. Matias Cattaneo & Sebastian Calonico & Rocio Titiunik, 2015. "Robust Inference in Regression-Discontinuity Designs," 2015 Stata Conference 16, Stata Users Group.
    9. Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "The Performance Effects Of Wise And Unwise Managerial Dismissals," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 59(1), pages 186-198, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2022. "Are Expectations Misled by Chance? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Financial Analysts," Working Papers 396, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    2. Meier, Pascal Flurin & Flepp, Raphael & Franck, Egon, 2023. "Replication: Do coaches stick with what barely worked? Evidence of outcome bias in sports," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Outcome bias; Self-evaluation; Behavioral economics; Judgment; Regression discontinuity design;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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