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Managing lumpy demand for aircraft spare parts

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  • Regattieri, A.
  • Gamberi, M.
  • Gamberini, R.
  • Manzini, R.

Abstract

This paper deals with effective forecasting methods for typically lumpy demand for aircraft spare parts, and analyzes the behavior of forecasting techniques when dealing with lumpy demand. Twenty forecasting techniques are considered and tested and historical data from Alitalia are used to analyze and compare their performance. The results demonstrate that item lumpiness is the dominant parameter and show that demand forecasting for lumpy items is a complex problem; results from previous studies are not very accurate. The best approaches are found to be weighted moving averages, the Croston method, and exponentially weighted moving average models.

Suggested Citation

  • Regattieri, A. & Gamberi, M. & Gamberini, R. & Manzini, R., 2005. "Managing lumpy demand for aircraft spare parts," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 426-431.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:11:y:2005:i:6:p:426-431
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2005.06.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gu, Jingyao & Zhang, Guoqing & Li, Kevin W., 2015. "Efficient aircraft spare parts inventory management under demand uncertainty," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 101-109.
    2. Nenes, George & Panagiotidou, Sofia & Tagaras, George, 2010. "Inventory management of multiple items with irregular demand: A case study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 313-324, September.
    3. Binoy Debnath & Md Shihab Shakur & Fahmida Tanjum & M. Azizur Rahman & Ziaul Haq Adnan, 2022. "Impact of Additive Manufacturing on the Supply Chain of Aerospace Spare Parts Industry—A Review," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-25, April.
    4. Dinis, Duarte & Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana & Teixeira, Ângelo Palos, 2022. "Enhancing capacity planning through forecasting: An integrated tool for maintenance of complex product systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 178-192.
    5. Babai, Zied & Boylan, John E. & Kolassa, Stephan & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2016. "Supply chain forecasting: Theory, practice, their gap and the futureAuthor-Name: Syntetos, Aris A," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 1-26.
    6. Hu, Qiwei & Boylan, John E. & Chen, Huijing & Labib, Ashraf, 2018. "OR in spare parts management: A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(2), pages 395-414.
    7. Moon, Seongmin & Hicks, Christian & Simpson, Andrew, 2012. "The development of a hierarchical forecasting method for predicting spare parts demand in the South Korean Navy—A case study," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 794-802.
    8. Gutierrez, Rafael S. & Solis, Adriano O. & Mukhopadhyay, Somnath, 2008. "Lumpy demand forecasting using neural networks," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 409-420, February.
    9. Ito, Kodo & Mizutani, Satoshi & Nakagawa, Toshio, 2020. "Optimal inspection models with minimal repair," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    10. Pinçe, Çerağ & Turrini, Laura & Meissner, Joern, 2021. "Intermittent demand forecasting for spare parts: A Critical review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    11. Jože Martin Rožanec & Blaž Fortuna & Dunja Mladenić, 2022. "Reframing Demand Forecasting: A Two-Fold Approach for Lumpy and Intermittent Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-21, July.
    12. Turrini, Laura & Meissner, Joern, 2019. "Spare parts inventory management: New evidence from distribution fitting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 273(1), pages 118-130.
    13. Lowas, Albert F. & Ciarallo, Frank W., 2016. "Reliability and operations: Keys to lumpy aircraft spare parts demands," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 30-40.
    14. Lolli, F. & Gamberini, R. & Regattieri, A. & Balugani, E. & Gatos, T. & Gucci, S., 2017. "Single-hidden layer neural networks for forecasting intermittent demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(PA), pages 116-128.
    15. R H Teunter & L Duncan, 2009. "Forecasting intermittent demand: a comparative study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(3), pages 321-329, March.
    16. Regattieri, A. & Giazzi, A. & Gamberi, M. & Gamberini, R., 2015. "An innovative method to optimize the maintenance policies in an aircraft: General framework and case study," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 44, pages 8-20.
    17. Dinis, Duarte & Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana & Teixeira, Ângelo Palos, 2019. "A supporting framework for maintenance capacity planning and scheduling: Development and application in the aircraft MRO industry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 1-15.
    18. Syntetos, Aris A., 2007. "A note on managing lumpy demand for aircraft spare parts," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 166-167.
    19. Jae-Dong Kim & Tae-Hyeong Kim & Sung Won Han, 2023. "Demand Forecasting of Spare Parts Using Artificial Intelligence: A Case Study of K-X Tanks," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-10, January.

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