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Reliability and operations: Keys to lumpy aircraft spare parts demands

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  • Lowas, Albert F.
  • Ciarallo, Frank W.

Abstract

This study provides unique new insights into the reasons for lumpy aircraft spare parts demands, and identifies opportunities to improve the regularity of aircraft spares demands. The study develops its unique insights into aircraft spare parts demands by considering the typical failure probability distribution (Weibull Distribution) for aircraft spare parts. The study identifies the range of Weibull model parameters that explain typical aircraft part failure rates, and uses these parameters to perform a Monte Carlo simulation of notional aircraft components in typical aircraft fleet sizes and operations. Each notional component is repeatedly used to failure and replaced, providing a simulated spare part demand rate. The data is evaluated to uncover patterns that allow a deeper understanding of how reliability and operational input factors impact the spare part demand characteristics. The study finds that the aircraft fleet size has the greatest impact on the lumpiness of aircraft spare parts demands. The study also recommends other measures that fleet managers may take to reduce the lumpiness of their spares demands.

Suggested Citation

  • Lowas, Albert F. & Ciarallo, Frank W., 2016. "Reliability and operations: Keys to lumpy aircraft spare parts demands," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 30-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:50:y:2016:i:c:p:30-40
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2015.09.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Regattieri, A. & Gamberi, M. & Gamberini, R. & Manzini, R., 2005. "Managing lumpy demand for aircraft spare parts," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 426-431.
    2. Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2013. "Intermittent demand forecasts with neural networks," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 198-206.
    3. Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2014. "On intermittent demand model optimisation and selection," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 180-190.
    4. Syntetos, Aris A. & Boylan, John E., 2010. "On the variance of intermittent demand estimates," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 546-555, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Binoy Debnath & Md Shihab Shakur & Fahmida Tanjum & M. Azizur Rahman & Ziaul Haq Adnan, 2022. "Impact of Additive Manufacturing on the Supply Chain of Aerospace Spare Parts Industry—A Review," Logistics, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-25, April.
    2. Dinis, Duarte & Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana & Teixeira, Ângelo Palos, 2019. "A supporting framework for maintenance capacity planning and scheduling: Development and application in the aircraft MRO industry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 1-15.
    3. Jože Martin Rožanec & Blaž Fortuna & Dunja Mladenić, 2022. "Reframing Demand Forecasting: A Two-Fold Approach for Lumpy and Intermittent Demand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-21, July.
    4. Costantino, Francesco & Di Gravio, Giulio & Patriarca, Riccardo & Petrella, Lea, 2018. "Spare parts management for irregular demand items," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 57-66.

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