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Sources of intermittent demand for aircraft spare parts within airline operations

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  • Ghobbar, A.A
  • Friend, C.H

Abstract

Owing to the sporadic nature of demand for aircraft maintenance repair parts, airline operators perceive difficulties in parts demand forecasting. In this paper we investigate the sources of demand lumpiness, as a function of flying hours, that may affect the parts demand rate. Experimental results of demand lumpiness, measured by the square coefficient of variation (CV2) and the average inter-demand interval (ADI), are examined and clarified through statistical analysis. The general linear model approach is used to explain the variation attributable to the various experimental factors and their interactions. Actual historical data for hard-time and condition-monitoring components from an airlines operator are used. This study shows that aircraft utilization rate can be a major source of lumpiness since it increases and decreases the square coefficient of variation and the average inter-demand interval respectively for the observed demand. This assumes a strictly linear relationship between demand and flying hours/landings.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghobbar, A.A & Friend, C.H, 2002. "Sources of intermittent demand for aircraft spare parts within airline operations," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 221-231.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:8:y:2002:i:4:p:221-231
    DOI: 10.1016/S0969-6997(01)00054-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bartezzaghi, Emilio & Verganti, Roberto & Zotteri, Giulio, 1999. "A simulation framework for forecasting uncertain lumpy demand," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1-3), pages 499-510, March.
    2. Christer, A. H. & Wang, W., 1995. "A simple condition monitoring model for a direct monitoring process," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 258-269, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gu, Jingyao & Zhang, Guoqing & Li, Kevin W., 2015. "Efficient aircraft spare parts inventory management under demand uncertainty," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 101-109.
    2. Nenes, George & Panagiotidou, Sofia & Tagaras, George, 2010. "Inventory management of multiple items with irregular demand: A case study," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(2), pages 313-324, September.
    3. Teunter, Ruud H. & Syntetos, Aris A. & Zied Babai, M., 2011. "Intermittent demand: Linking forecasting to inventory obsolescence," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(3), pages 606-615, November.
    4. Babai, Zied & Boylan, John E. & Kolassa, Stephan & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2016. "Supply chain forecasting: Theory, practice, their gap and the futureAuthor-Name: Syntetos, Aris A," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(1), pages 1-26.
    5. Moon, Seongmin & Hicks, Christian & Simpson, Andrew, 2012. "The development of a hierarchical forecasting method for predicting spare parts demand in the South Korean Navy—A case study," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 794-802.
    6. R Fildes & K Nikolopoulos & S F Crone & A A Syntetos, 2008. "Forecasting and operational research: a review," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(9), pages 1150-1172, September.
    7. Gutierrez, Rafael S. & Solis, Adriano O. & Mukhopadhyay, Somnath, 2008. "Lumpy demand forecasting using neural networks," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 409-420, February.
    8. Fabian Taigel & Anselme K. Tueno & Richard Pibernik, 2018. "Privacy-preserving condition-based forecasting using machine learning," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 88(5), pages 563-592, July.
    9. Aysun Kapucugil Ikiz & Gizem Halil Utma, 2023. "Combined Forecasts of Intermittent Demand for Stock-keeping Units (SKUs)," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 1-31, June.
    10. Pinçe, Çerağ & Turrini, Laura & Meissner, Joern, 2021. "Intermittent demand forecasting for spare parts: A Critical review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    11. Van der Auweraer, Sarah & Boute, Robert N. & Syntetos, Aris A., 2019. "Forecasting spare part demand with installed base information: A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 181-196.
    12. Yongquan, Sun & Xi, Chen & He, Ren & Yingchao, Jin & Quanwu, Liu, 2016. "Ordering decision-making methods on spare parts for a new aircraft fleet based on a two-sample prediction," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 40-50.
    13. Regattieri, A. & Gamberi, M. & Gamberini, R. & Manzini, R., 2005. "Managing lumpy demand for aircraft spare parts," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(6), pages 426-431.
    14. Dhanisetty, V.S. Viswanath & Verhagen, W.J.C. & Curran, Richard, 2018. "Multi-criteria weighted decision making for operational maintenance processes," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 152-164.
    15. Costantino, Francesco & Di Gravio, Giulio & Patriarca, Riccardo & Petrella, Lea, 2018. "Spare parts management for irregular demand items," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 57-66.
    16. A A Syntetos & M Z Babai & Y Dallery & R Teunter, 2009. "Periodic control of intermittent demand items: theory and empirical analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(5), pages 611-618, May.
    17. Regattieri, A. & Giazzi, A. & Gamberi, M. & Gamberini, R., 2015. "An innovative method to optimize the maintenance policies in an aircraft: General framework and case study," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 44, pages 8-20.
    18. Dinis, Duarte & Barbosa-Póvoa, Ana & Teixeira, Ângelo Palos, 2019. "A supporting framework for maintenance capacity planning and scheduling: Development and application in the aircraft MRO industry," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 1-15.
    19. Syntetos, Aris A., 2007. "A note on managing lumpy demand for aircraft spare parts," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 166-167.

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