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Forecasting OECD industrial turning points using unobserved components models with business survey data

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  • Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio
  • Bujosa-Brun, Marcos

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  • Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Bujosa-Brun, Marcos, 2000. "Forecasting OECD industrial turning points using unobserved components models with business survey data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 207-227.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:16:y:2000:i:2:p:207-227
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    1. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Queralt, Ricardo A., 1998. "Can univariate models forecast turning points in seasonal economic time series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 433-446, December.
    2. Hanssens, Dominique M & Vanden Abeele, Pierre M, 1987. "A Time-Series Study of the Formation and Predictive Performance of EEC Production Survey Expectations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 507-519, October.
    3. Oller, Lars-Erik & Tallbom, Christer, 1996. "Smooth and timely business cycle indicators for noisy Swedish data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 389-402, September.
    4. Hess, Gregory D & Iwata, Shigeru, 1997. "Measuring and Comparing Business-Cycle Features," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 432-444, October.
    5. Canova, Fabio, 1994. "Detrending and turning points," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 614-623, April.
    6. Andrews, Rick L, 1994. "Forecasting Performance of Structural Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 129-133, January.
    7. Eduardo Morales & Antoni Espasa & María Luisa Rojo, 1992. "Univariate methods for the analysis of the industrial sector in Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 16(1), pages 127-149, January.
    8. Zellner, Arnold & Hong, Chansik & Min, Chung-ki, 1991. "Forecasting turning points in international output growth rates using Bayesian exponentially weighted autoregression, time-varying parameter, and pooling techniques," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 275-304.
    9. García-Ferrer Antonio & Queralt Ricardo A., 1998. "Using Long-, Medium-, and Short-Term Trends to Forecast Turning Points in the Business Cycle: Some International Evidence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-29, July.
    10. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
    11. Fildes, Robert, 1992. "The evaluation of extrapolative forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 81-98, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Javier J. Pérez & Jesús Rodríguez López & Teresa Leal, 2002. "Pautas cíclicas de la economía andaluza en el período 1984-2001: un análisis comparado," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/18, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    2. Bujosa, Marcos & Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Young, Peter C., 2007. "Linear dynamic harmonic regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 999-1024, October.
    3. Javier J. Pérez & Jesús Rodríguez López & Carlos Usabiaga, 2002. "Análisis Dinámico de la Relación entre Ciclo Económico y Ciclo del Desempleo en Andalucía en Comparación con el Resto de España," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/07, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.
    4. Lucie Povolná & Michaela Jánská & Marta Žambochová, 2022. "Estimates of Future Industrial Development in the Context of Company Size," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(3), pages 312-340.
    5. Bruno, Giancarlo & Lupi, Claudio, 2003. "Forecasting Euro-Area Industrial Production Using (Mostly) Business Surveys Data," MPRA Paper 42332, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bruno, Giancarlo & Otranto, Edoardo, 2008. "Models to date the business cycle: The Italian case," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 899-911, September.
    7. Bengoechea, Pilar & Camacho, Maximo & Perez-Quiros, Gabriel, 2006. "A useful tool for forecasting the Euro-area business cycle phases," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 735-749.
    8. Marcos Bujosa & Antonio García‐Ferrer & Aránzazu de Juan & Antonio Martín‐Arroyo, 2020. "Evaluating early warning and coincident indicators of business cycles using smooth trends," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, January.
    9. Candy Mei Fung Tang & Brian King & Stephen Pratt, 2017. "Predicting hotel occupancies with public data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 1096-1113, August.
    10. de Bondt, Gabe J. & Dieden, Heinz C. & Muzikarova, Sona & Vincze, Istvan, 2014. "Modelling industrial new orders," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-54.
    11. Giancarlo Bruno & Edoardo Otranto, 2003. "Dating the Italian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Procedures," Econometrics 0312003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Camila Figueroa S. & Michael Pedersen, 2019. "Extracting information on economic activity from business and consumer surveys in an emerging economy (Chile)," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 22(3), pages 098-131, December.
    13. Nada Kulendran & Kevin K.F. Wong, 2009. "Predicting Quarterly Hong Kong Tourism Demand Growth Rates, Directional Changes and Turning Points with Composite Leading Indicators," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 307-322, June.
    14. Michela Nardo, 2003. "The Quantification of Qualitative Survey Data: A Critical Assessment," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(5), pages 645-668, December.
    15. Máximo Camacho & Gonzalo Palmieri, 2021. "Evaluating the OECD’s main economic indicators at anticipating recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 80-93, January.
    16. Guerrero Santiago & Martínez-Ovando Juan Carlos, 2014. "Generalized Diffusion Indexes of Mexican State and Sectorial Economic Activity," Working Papers 2014-16, Banco de México.
    17. de Bondt, Gabe & Dieden, Heinz Christian & Muzikarova, Sona & Vincze, Istvan, 2013. "Introducing the ECB indicator on euro area industrial new orders," Occasional Paper Series 149, European Central Bank.
    18. de Bondt, Gabe & Dieden, Heinz Christian & Muzikarova, Sona & Vincze, Istvan, 2014. "Modelling industrial new orders for the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 6, European Central Bank.
    19. Gabe de Bondt & Heinz C. Dieden & Sona Muzikarova & Istvan Vincze, 2013. "Modeling Euro Area Industrial New Orders," EcoMod2013 5663, EcoMod.
    20. Antonis A Michis, 2011. "Denoised least squars forecasting of GDP changes using indexes of consumer and business sentiment," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Proceedings of the IFC Conference on "Initiatives to address data gaps revealed by the financial crisis", Basel, 25-26 August 2010, volume 34, pages 383-392, Bank for International Settlements.
    21. Bruno, Giancarlo, 2009. "Non-linear relation between industrial production and business surveys data," MPRA Paper 42337, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. de Bondt, Gabe & Dieden, Heinz Christian & Muzikarova, Sona & Vincze, Istvan, 2013. "Introducing the ECB indicator on euro area industrial new orders," Occasional Paper Series 149, European Central Bank.
    23. Marcos Bujosa & Antonio García Ferrer & Peter Young, 2002. "An ARMA Representation of Unobserved Component Models under Generalized Random Walk Specifications: New Algorithms and Examples," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0204, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.

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