IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdm/wpaper/2014-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Generalized Diffusion Indexes of Mexican State and Sectorial Economic Activity

Author

Listed:
  • Guerrero Santiago
  • Martínez-Ovando Juan Carlos

Abstract

In this research we develop generalized diffusion indexes for the Mexican state and sectorial economic activity. These indexes summarize the dynamics of the local cycles in a way that they are consistent with the aggregate economic activity. The proposed index includes three dimensions of the local dynamic activity: i) the variation of local cycles (positive or negative), ii) the magnitude of these variations and iii) the weight of local components (states and/or sectors) on the aggregate economic activity. The main contribution of these indexes is that they admit sub-aggregations of regions and/or sectors that are more precise and informative than their counterparts. We show two applications. In the first one, we develop the generalized diffusion index for the Mexican economy using state economic coincident indexes. In the second one, we create a diffusion index of the state and sectorial economic activity using the State Quarterly Indicator of Economic activity (ITAEE by its Spanish acronym) produced by INEGI.

Suggested Citation

  • Guerrero Santiago & Martínez-Ovando Juan Carlos, 2014. "Generalized Diffusion Indexes of Mexican State and Sectorial Economic Activity," Working Papers 2014-16, Banco de México.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2014-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-prensa/documentos-de-investigacion-del-banco-de-mexico/%7B8451B28A-E6D8-CF85-3F82-0EE0B5B0BA6F%7D.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1961. "Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor61-1.
    2. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1961. "The Diffusion of Business Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, pages 261-281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1961. "Introductory pages to "Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, pages -35--15, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Bujosa-Brun, Marcos, 2000. "Forecasting OECD industrial turning points using unobserved components models with business survey data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 207-227.
    5. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1961. "Introduction to "Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, pages -13--1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Geoffrey H. Moore, 1961. "Appendices to "Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, pages 669-767, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guerrero Santiago & Martínez-Ovando Juan Carlos, 2015. "A note on the diffusion of business cycles," Working Papers 2015-01, Banco de México.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew Filardo & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Marek Raczko, 2018. "Measuring financial cycle time," BIS Working Papers 755, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Matthew Jaremski & David C. Wheelock, 2022. "Interbank Networks and the Interregional Transmission of Financial Crises: Evidence from the Panic of 1907," Working Papers 2022-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Sep 2023.
    3. Ilse Mintz, 1974. "Dating United States Growth Cycles," NBER Chapters, in: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 1, Number 1, pages 1-113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Michael W. McCracken & Serena Ng, 2016. "FRED-MD: A Monthly Database for Macroeconomic Research," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 574-589, October.
    5. Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young, 2020. "Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-05, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    6. Dierkes, Meinolf, 1977. "Die Analyse von Zeitreihen und Longitudinalstudien," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 111-169.
    7. Mayer, Thomas, 1977. "A Comparison of Unemployment Rates Prior to the Great Depression and in the Postwar Period," Working Papers 229117, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    8. Yao, Vincent W. & Sloboda, Brian W., 2005. "Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector," Journal of the Transportation Research Forum, Transportation Research Forum, vol. 44(2).
    9. Makoto Muto & Tamotsu Onozaki & Yoshitaka Saiki, 2023. "Regional Synchronization during Economic Contraction: The Case of the U.S. and Japan," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(30), pages 3472-3486, June.
    10. Yao, Vincent W. & Solboda, Brian, 2005. "Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector," 46th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Washington, D.C., March 6-8, 2005 208159, Transportation Research Forum.
    11. Xun Zhang & Guihuan Zheng & Wei Shang & Shangying Xu & Xiaoguang Yang & Kin Keung Lai & Shou-Yang Wang, 2009. "An Integrated Decision Support Framework For Macroeconomic Policy Making Based On Early Warning Theories," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(02), pages 335-359.
    12. Marcel, Mario., 1990. "Leading indicators for employment forecasting in developing countries," ILO Working Papers 992788013402676, International Labour Organization.
    13. Enrique A. López-Enciso, 2017. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 986, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Raquel Nadal Cesar Gonçalves, 2022. "Nowcasting Brazilian GDP with Electronic Payments Data," Working Papers Series 564, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    15. Geoffrey H. Moore & Victor Zarnowitz, 1986. "Appendix A: The Development and Role of the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Chronologies," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 735-780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. repec:ilo:ilowps:278801 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Grossman, Peter Z., 2000. "Determinants of share price movements in emerging equity markets:: Some evidence from america's past," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 355-374.
    18. Guerrero Santiago & Martínez-Ovando Juan Carlos, 2015. "A note on the diffusion of business cycles," Working Papers 2015-01, Banco de México.
    19. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    20. Epstein, Philip, 1998. "American business cycles since World War II: historical behaviour and statistical representation," Economic History Working Papers 22405, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    21. Javier J. Pérez & Jesús Rodríguez López & Carlos Usabiaga, 2002. "Análisis Dinámico de la Relación entre Ciclo Económico y Ciclo del Desempleo en Andalucía en Comparación con el Resto de España," Economic Working Papers at Centro de Estudios Andaluces E2002/07, Centro de Estudios Andaluces.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Diffusion index; Coincident indexes; Economic cycles; Monitoring;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2014-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Subgerencia de desarrollo de sistemas (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bangvmx.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.