Can univariate models forecast turning points in seasonal economic time series?
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1995. "Lag Order and Critical Values of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 277-280, July.
- Andrews, Rick L, 1994. "Forecasting Performance of Structural Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(1), pages 129-133, January.
- Eduardo Morales & Antoni Espasa & María Luisa Rojo, 1992. "Univariate methods for the analysis of the industrial sector in Spain," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 16(1), pages 127-149, January.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stoc93-1, January.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W. (ed.), 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226774886, January.
- Harvey, A C & Todd, P H J, 1983. "Forecasting Economic Time Series with Structural and Box-Jenkins Models: A Case Study," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(4), pages 299-307, October.
- Meese, Richard A & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 933-948, September.
- Harvey, A C & Todd, P H J, 1983. "Forecasting Economic Time Series with Structural and Box-Jenkins Models: A Case Study: Response," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(4), pages 313-315, October.
- Meese, R. & Rogoff, K., 1988. "Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Ralation Over The Modern Floating-Rate Period," Working papers 368, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Kugiumtzis, Dimitris & Tsimpiris, Alkiviadis, 2010. "Measures of Analysis of Time Series (MATS): A MATLAB Toolkit for Computation of Multiple Measures on Time Series Data Bases," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i05).
- Antonio García‐ferrer & Aránzazu De Juan & Pilar Poncela, 2007. "The relationship between road traffic accidents and real economic activity in spain: common cycles and health issues," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 603-626, June.
- Candy Mei Fung Tang & Nada Kulendran, 2011. "A Composite Leading Indicator for the Hotel Industry," Tourism Economics, , vol. 17(3), pages 549-563, June.
- Nada Kulendran & Kevin K.F. Wong, 2009. "Predicting Quarterly Hong Kong Tourism Demand Growth Rates, Directional Changes and Turning Points with Composite Leading Indicators," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(2), pages 307-322, June.
- Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Bujosa-Brun, Marcos, 2000. "Forecasting OECD industrial turning points using unobserved components models with business survey data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 207-227.
- Cano Guervós, R. & Chica Olmo, J. & Hermoso Gutiérrez, J.A., 1999. "Metodología para la zonificación de una ciudad," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 13, pages 23-49, Diciembre.
- repec:jss:jstsof:33:i05 is not listed on IDEAS
- Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Queralt, Ricardo & Blazquez, Cristina, 2001. "A growth cycle characterisation and forecasting of the Spanish economy: 1970-1998," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 517-532.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- McCracken,M.W. & West,K.D., 2001. "Inference about predictive ability," Working papers 14, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Chan Guk Huh, 1998. "Forecasting industrial production using models with business cycle asymmetry," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 29-41.
- Thury, Gerhard & Witt, Stephen F., 1998. "Forecasting industrial production using structural time series models," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 751-767, December.
- Siklos, Pierre L, 2000.
"Inflation Targets and the Yield Curve: New Zealand and Australia versus the US,"
International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 15-32, February.
- Pierre Siklos, 1999. "Inflation Targets and the Yield Curve: New Zealand and Australia vs. the US," Research Paper Series 25, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Walter Labys, 2005. "Commodity Price Fluctuations: A Century of Analysis," Working Papers Working Paper 2005-01, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
- repec:rri:wpaper:200501 is not listed on IDEAS
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn, 1999. "Are Macroeconomic Forecasts Informative? Cointegration Evidence from the ASA-NBER Surveys," NBER Working Papers 6926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Quah, Danny, 1994.
"One business cycle and one trend from (many,) many disaggregates,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 605-614, April.
- Quah, D., 1993. "One Business Cycle and One Trend From(Many) Many Disaggregates," Papers 550, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
- Quah, Danny, 1994. "One Business Cycle and One Trend from (Many) Many Disaggregates," CEPR Discussion Papers 873, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- DAVID E. ALLEN & MICHAEL McALEER & ROBERT J. POWELL & ABHAY K. SINGH, 2018.
"Non-Parametric Multiple Change Point Analysis Of The Global Financial Crisis,"
Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 1-23, June.
- David E Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J Powell & Abhay K Singh, 2013. "Nonparametric Multiple Change Point Analysis of the Global Financial Crisis," KIER Working Papers 866, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
- David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2013. "Nonparametric Multiple Change Point Analysis of the Global Financial Crisis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-072/III, Tinbergen Institute.
- David E. Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J. Powell & Abhay K. Singh, 2013. "Nonparametric Multiple Change Point Analysis of the Global Financial Crisis," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-17, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
- Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Tae-Hwy Lee & Canlin Li, 2018.
"Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation,"
Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-27, August.
- Tae-Hwy Lee & Eric Hillebrand & Huiyu Huang & Canlin Li, 2018. "Using the Entire Yield Curve in Forecasting Output and Inflation," Working Papers 201903, University of California at Riverside, Department of Economics.
- Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003.
"Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Papers 2002-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Working Paper Series 82, European Central Bank.
- Hendry, David F & Michael P. Clements, 2002. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 99, Royal Economic Society.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements & Department of Economics & University of Warwick, 2001. "Economic Forecasting: Some Lessons from Recent Research," Economics Series Working Papers 78, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Shiller & Stefano Athanasoulis, 1995.
"World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting International Risk Sharing Opportunities,"
NBER Working Papers
5095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Shiller & Stefano G. Athanasoulis, 1997. "World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting International Risk Sharing Opportunities," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1097, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Athanasoulis, S. & Shiller, R.J., 1995. "World Income Components: Measuring and Exploting International Risk Sharing Opportunities," Papers 725, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
- Robert Shiller, 2004. "World Income Components: Measuring And Exploiting International Risk Sharing Opportunities," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm151, Yale School of Management.
- van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998.
"Exchange Rates and Oil Prices,"
Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
- Robert A. Amano & Simon van Norden, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," International Finance 9509001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Matteo Pelagatti & Emilio Colombo, 2012. "Unpuzzling the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Working Papers 221, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2012.
- Tsai, Bi-Huei & Chang, Chih-Jen & Chang, Chun-Hsien, 2016. "Elucidating the consumption and CO2 emissions of fossil fuels and low-carbon energy in the United States using Lotka–Volterra models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 416-424.
- Kartono, Agus & Solekha, Siti & Sumaryada, Tony & Irmansyah,, 2021. "Foreign currency exchange rate prediction using non-linear Schrödinger equations with economic fundamental parameters," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
- Franses, P.H. & McAleer, M., 1995.
"Testing Nested and Non-Nested Periodically Integrated Autoregressive Models,"
Papers
9510, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
- Franses, P.H. & McAleer, M., 1995. "Testing Nested and Non-Nested Periodically Integrated Autoregressive Models," Other publications TiSEM f6ea7d00-daeb-413b-a279-e, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
- Franses, P.H. & McAleer, M., 1995. "Testing Nested and Non-Nested Periodically Integrated Autoregressive Models," Discussion Paper 1995-10, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Victor Zarnowitz, 1997. "Business Cycles Observed and Assessed: Why and How They Matter," NBER Working Papers 6230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sirichand, Kavita & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2015.
"Examining real interest parity: Which component reverts quickest and in which regime?,"
International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 72-83.
- Kavita Sirichand & Andrew Vivian & Mark E.Wohar, 2014. "Examining real interest parity: which component reverts quickest and in which regime?," Discussion Paper Series 2014_05, Department of Economics, Loughborough University, revised Jul 2014.
- Barbara Rossi, 2013.
"Exchange Rate Predictability,"
Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
- Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Working Papers 690, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange rate predictability," Economics Working Papers 1369, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 9575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mark Weder, 2006.
"A heliocentric journey into Germany's Great Depression,"
Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 288-316, April.
- Weder, Mark, 2003. "A Heliocentric Journey into Germany´s Great Depression," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,50, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Mark Weder, 2005. "A Heliocentric Journey into Germany's Great Depression," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2005-13, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
- Weder, Mark, 2004. "A Heliocentric Journey into Germany's Great Depression," CEPR Discussion Papers 4191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mark Weder, 2005. "A Heliocentric Journey into Germany's Great Depression," Economic History 0510002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mark Weder, 2004. "A Heliocentric Journey into Germany's Great Depression," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 53, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:14:y:1998:i:4:p:433-446. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.