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Assessing deforestation in the Brazilian forests: An econometric inquiry into the load capacity curve for deforestation

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  • Ayad, Hicham
  • Hassoun, Salaheddine Sari
  • Abdelkader, Salim Bourchid
  • Sallam, Osama Azmi Abddel-Jalil

Abstract

Deforestation represents one of the main factors contributing to the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. In the Brazilian Amazon, deforestation remains a towering problem and has reached intolerable proportions. In the last fifty years, Brazil's Amazon has lost about a fifth of its forest cover—almost 300,000 mile2. This includes at least 5110 mile2 lost in 2021. In the light of this statement, we aim to investigate deforestation in Brazilian forests during the period of 1970 to 2019 using an innovative approach called the Load Capacity Curve for Deforestation (LCCd). We also seek to explore the effects of the total population, human capital, trade openness, GDP, GDP squared, non-renewable and renewable energy use on forest sustainability as measured by the forest production load capacity factor. The findings indicate that energy use, population growth, and trade openness have negative effects on forest sustainability, while human capital has a positive influence. However, the use of renewable energy has an insignificant impact. Additionally, long-term estimates point to support for the LCCd hypothesis. These outcomes demonstrate how crucial it is for Brazilian policymakers to maintain the sustainability of the country's forests and preserve their biocapacity.

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  • Ayad, Hicham & Hassoun, Salaheddine Sari & Abdelkader, Salim Bourchid & Sallam, Osama Azmi Abddel-Jalil, 2024. "Assessing deforestation in the Brazilian forests: An econometric inquiry into the load capacity curve for deforestation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:159:y:2024:i:c:s1389934123002307
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103135
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