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Deforestation reduces rainfall and agricultural revenues in the Brazilian Amazon

Author

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  • Argemiro Teixeira Leite-Filho

    (Federal University of Minas Gerais)

  • Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho

    (Federal University of Minas Gerais)

  • Juliana Leroy Davis

    (Federal University of Minas Gerais)

  • Gabriel Medeiros Abrahão

    (Federal University of Viçosa)

  • Jan Börner

    (University of Bonn)

Abstract

It has been suggested that rainfall in the Amazon decreases if forest loss exceeds some threshold, but the specific value of this threshold remains uncertain. Here, we investigate the relationship between historical deforestation and rainfall at different geographical scales across the Southern Brazilian Amazon (SBA). We also assess impacts of deforestation policy scenarios on the region’s agriculture. Forest loss of up to 55–60% within 28 km grid cells enhances rainfall, but further deforestation reduces rainfall precipitously. This threshold is lower at larger scales (45–50% at 56 km and 25–30% at 112 km grid cells), while rainfall decreases linearly within 224 km grid cells. Widespread deforestation results in a hydrological and economic negative-sum game, because lower rainfall and agricultural productivity at larger scales outdo local gains. Under a weak governance scenario, SBA may lose 56% of its forests by 2050. Reducing deforestation prevents agricultural losses in SBA up to US$ 1 billion annually.

Suggested Citation

  • Argemiro Teixeira Leite-Filho & Britaldo Silveira Soares-Filho & Juliana Leroy Davis & Gabriel Medeiros Abrahão & Jan Börner, 2021. "Deforestation reduces rainfall and agricultural revenues in the Brazilian Amazon," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-7, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:12:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-021-22840-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-22840-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Batista, Fabiana de Souza & Duku, Confidence & Hein, Lars, 2023. "Deforestation-induced changes in rainfall decrease soybean-maize yields in Brazil," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 486(C).
    2. Sonno, Tommaso & Zufacchi, Davide, 2022. "Epidemics and rapacity of multinational companies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 117802, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Flach, Rafaela & Abrahão, Gabriel & Bryant, Benjamin & Scarabello, Marluce & Soterroni, Aline C. & Ramos, Fernando M. & Valin, Hugo & Obersteiner, Michael & Cohn, Avery S., 2021. "Conserving the Cerrado and Amazon biomes of Brazil protects the soy economy from damaging warming," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. van der Hoff, Richard & Nascimento, Nathália & Fabrício-Neto, Ailton & Jaramillo-Giraldo, Carolina & Ambrosio, Geanderson & Arieira, Julia & Afonso Nobre, Carlos & Rajão, Raoni, 2022. "Policy-oriented ecosystem services research on tropical forests in South America: A systematic literature review," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    5. Araujo, Rafael, 2024. "The value of tropical forests to hydropower," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    6. Yue Li & Paulo M. Brando & Douglas C. Morton & David M. Lawrence & Hui Yang & James T. Randerson, 2022. "Deforestation-induced climate change reduces carbon storage in remaining tropical forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    7. Ayad, Hicham & Hassoun, Salaheddine Sari & Abdelkader, Salim Bourchid & Sallam, Osama Azmi Abddel-Jalil, 2024. "Assessing deforestation in the Brazilian forests: An econometric inquiry into the load capacity curve for deforestation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).

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