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Hysteresis of tropical forests in the 21st century

Author

Listed:
  • Arie Staal

    (Stockholm University
    Utrecht University)

  • Ingo Fetzer

    (Stockholm University)

  • Lan Wang-Erlandsson

    (Stockholm University)

  • Joyce H. C. Bosmans

    (Radboud University)

  • Stefan C. Dekker

    (Utrecht University)

  • Egbert H. van Nes

    (Wageningen University)

  • Johan Rockström

    (Stockholm University
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Obbe A. Tuinenburg

    (Utrecht University)

Abstract

Tropical forests modify the conditions they depend on through feedbacks at different spatial scales. These feedbacks shape the hysteresis (history-dependence) of tropical forests, thus controlling their resilience to deforestation and response to climate change. Here, we determine the emergent hysteresis from local-scale tipping points and regional-scale forest-rainfall feedbacks across the tropics under the recent climate and a severe climate-change scenario. By integrating remote sensing, a global hydrological model, and detailed atmospheric moisture tracking simulations, we find that forest-rainfall feedback expands the geographic range of possible forest distributions, especially in the Amazon. The Amazon forest could partially recover from complete deforestation, but may lose that resilience later this century. The Congo forest currently lacks resilience, but is predicted to gain it under climate change, whereas forests in Australasia are resilient under both current and future climates. Our results show how tropical forests shape their own distributions and create the climatic conditions that enable them.

Suggested Citation

  • Arie Staal & Ingo Fetzer & Lan Wang-Erlandsson & Joyce H. C. Bosmans & Stefan C. Dekker & Egbert H. van Nes & Johan Rockström & Obbe A. Tuinenburg, 2020. "Hysteresis of tropical forests in the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-18728-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-18728-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Cavalcanti, Francisco & Helfand, Steven M. & Moreira, Ajax, 2024. "Climate Change, Drought, and Agricultural Production in Brazil," IAAE 2024 Conference, August 2-7, 2024, New Delhi, India 344267, International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE).
    2. Porro, Roberto & Porro, Noemi Sakiara Miyasaka, 2022. "State-led social and environmental policy failure in a Brazilian forest frontier: Sustainable Development Project in Anapu, Pará," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    3. Dirk Olonscheck & Andrew P. Schurer & Lucie Lücke & Gabriele C. Hegerl, 2021. "Large-scale emergence of regional changes in year-to-year temperature variability by the end of the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Felix J. Formanski & Marcel M. Pein & David D. Loschelder & John-Oliver Engler & Onno Husen & Johann M. Majer, 2022. "Tipping points ahead? How laypeople respond to linear versus nonlinear climate change predictions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 1-20, November.
    5. Jessica Stubenrauch & Beatrice Garske & Felix Ekardt & Katharina Hagemann, 2022. "European Forest Governance: Status Quo and Optimising Options with Regard to the Paris Climate Target," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-35, April.
    6. Broadmeadow, Samantha & Nisbet, Tom & Palmer, Robert & Webb, Louise & Short, Chris & Chivers, Charlotte-Anne & Hammond, John & Lukac, Martin & Miller, Anne & Gantlett, Richard & Clark, Joanna, 2023. "Incorporating technical and farmer knowledge to improve land use and management for natural flood management in lowland catchments," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    7. Ayad, Hicham & Hassoun, Salaheddine Sari & Abdelkader, Salim Bourchid & Sallam, Osama Azmi Abddel-Jalil, 2024. "Assessing deforestation in the Brazilian forests: An econometric inquiry into the load capacity curve for deforestation," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    8. Joana Castro Pereira & João Terrenas, 2022. "Towards a transformative governance of the Amazon," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(S3), pages 60-75, December.

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