Economic growth and the forest development path: A theoretical re-assessment of the environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation

This paper reviews the literature of an unresolved question in environmental economics, the environmental Kuznets curve for deforestation (EKCd). It begins by summarizing the general EKC, the idea that economies draw on their environmental resources during initial growth but, with further growth above some level, their environmental decline attains a turning point. Most investigations of the EKCd are limited to approximately 25 years of FAO forest cover data and most feature sets of developing countries. These are short time series for a resource like forests and the paucity of evidence from developed countries is another weakness. Further discussion of two related concepts, the Forest Transition and a von-Thünen-based forest development pattern, shows a second EKC turning point for deforestation which (unlike environmental resources like, say, CO2) can recover with reforestation and addition to the forest base. Altogether, this background of experience recommends that future examinations of the unresolved EKCd reconsider, among others, the duration and thoroughness of the data, the extent of the cross-sectional international coverage, and the potential of a second turning point occurring for higher levels of development.