IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v301y2024ics0360544224014920.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An extended Bayesian network model for calculating dam failure probability based on fuzzy sets and dynamic evidential reasoning

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Hua
  • Li, Zongkun
  • Ge, Wei
  • Zhang, Yadong
  • Wang, Te
  • Sun, Heqiang
  • Jiao, Yutie

Abstract

Effective risk analysis is crucial for ensuring the safe operation of hydropower dams. Existing methods typically rely solely on subjective or objective data. The subjectivity of expert opinions and insufficient objective data affect the reliability of results. To reduce subjectivity in the risk analysis process and enhance the utilization of subjective and objective data, this study proposes an extended Bayesian network (BN) model for calculating the dam failure probability based on fuzzy sets (FSs) and dynamic evidential reasoning. To address the fuzziness and uncertainty of expert opinions, a Gaussian FS was introduced to transform expert opinions into fuzzy numbers. Additionally, a dynamic evidential reasoning approach was proposed to combine subjective and objective data, considering their differences, subjectivity, and potential conflicts. To maintain consistency in the fuzzification and defuzzification processes, an improved Onisawa formula was proposed. Finally, the BN was employed for probability prediction and sensitivity analyses. The model was applied to the Z hydropower dam in China. The results showed that the failure probability was 5.2 × 10−4, and the main controllable risk factors were identified. A comparative analysis was conducted and the results showed that the proposed method had a better ability to handle uncertainty, reduce subjectivity, and mitigate conflicts.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Hua & Li, Zongkun & Ge, Wei & Zhang, Yadong & Wang, Te & Sun, Heqiang & Jiao, Yutie, 2024. "An extended Bayesian network model for calculating dam failure probability based on fuzzy sets and dynamic evidential reasoning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:301:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224014920
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.131719
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544224014920
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2024.131719?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khakzad, Nima & Khan, Faisal & Amyotte, Paul, 2011. "Safety analysis in process facilities: Comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 925-932.
    2. Wang, Nanxi & Wu, Min & Yuen, Kum Fai, 2023. "Assessment of port resilience using Bayesian network: A study of strategies to enhance readiness and response capacities," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    3. Shang, Yizi & Lu, Shibao & Ye, Yuntao & Liu, Ronghua & Shang, Ling & Liu, Chunna & Meng, Xianyong & Li, Xiaofei & Fan, Qixiang, 2018. "China’ energy-water nexus: Hydropower generation potential of joint operation of the Three Gorges and Qingjiang cascade reservoirs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 14-32.
    4. Deveci, Muhammet & Cali, Umit & Kucuksari, Sadik & Erdogan, Nuh, 2020. "Interval type-2 fuzzy sets based multi-criteria decision-making model for offshore wind farm development in Ireland," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    5. Andreini, Marco & Gardoni, Paolo & Pagliara, Stefano & Sassu, Mauro, 2019. "Probabilistic models for the erosion rate in embankments and reliability analysis of earth dams," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 142-155.
    6. Aven, T. & Nøkland, T.E., 2010. "On the use of uncertainty importance measures in reliability and risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 127-133.
    7. Hexiang Zhang & Wei Ge & Yadong Zhang & Zongkun Li & Wei Li & Junyu Zhu & Wenqi Wang, 2023. "Risk Management Decision of Reservoir Dams Based on the Improved Life Quality Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1223-1239, February.
    8. Yang, Jian-Bo, 2001. "Rule and utility based evidential reasoning approach for multiattribute decision analysis under uncertainties," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 31-61, May.
    9. Wei Ge & Zongkun Li & Wei Li & Meimei Wu & Juanjuan Li & Yipeng Pan, 2020. "Risk evaluation of dam-break environmental impacts based on the set pair analysis and cloud model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1641-1653, November.
    10. Yan, Peiliang & Fan, Weijun & Zhang, Rongchun, 2023. "Predicting the NOx emissions of low heat value gas rich-quench-lean combustor via three integrated learning algorithms with Bayesian optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 273(C).
    11. Edgardo M. Latrubesse & Eugenio Y. Arima & Thomas Dunne & Edward Park & Victor R. Baker & Fernando M. d’Horta & Charles Wight & Florian Wittmann & Jansen Zuanon & Paul A. Baker & Camila C. Ribas & Ric, 2017. "Damming the rivers of the Amazon basin," Nature, Nature, vol. 546(7658), pages 363-369, June.
    12. Khalil Ardeshirtanha & Ahmad Sharafati, 2020. "Assessment of Water Supply Dam Failure Risk: Development of New Stochastic Failure Modes and Effects Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(5), pages 1827-1841, March.
    13. Zhong, Ruida & Zhao, Tongtiegang & Chen, Xiaohong, 2021. "Evaluating the tradeoff between hydropower benefit and ecological interest under climate change: How will the water-energy-ecosystem nexus evolve in the upper Mekong basin?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    14. He, Renfei & Zhang, Limao & Tiong, Robert L.K., 2023. "Flood risk assessment and mitigation for metro stations: An evidential-reasoning-based optimality approach considering uncertainty of subjective parameters," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    15. Wang, Te & Li, Zongkun & Ge, Wei & Zhang, Hua & Zhang, Yadong & Sun, Heqiang & Jiao, Yutie, 2023. "Risk consequence assessment of dam breach in cascade reservoirs considering risk transmission and superposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wang, Te & Li, Zongkun & Ge, Wei & Zhang, Hua & Zhang, Yadong & Sun, Heqiang & Jiao, Yutie, 2023. "Risk consequence assessment of dam breach in cascade reservoirs considering risk transmission and superposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    2. Bodda, Saran Srikanth & Gupta, Abhinav & Dinh, Nam, 2020. "Enhancement of risk informed validation framework for external hazard scenario," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    3. Rajabzadeh, Vida & Hekmatzadeh, Ali Akbar & Tabatabaie Shourijeh, Piltan & Torabi Haghighi, Ali, 2023. "Introducing a probabilistic framework to measure dam overtopping risk for dams benefiting from dual spillways," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    4. Te Wang & Zongkun Li & Wei Ge & Yadong Zhang & Yutie Jiao & Hua Zhang & Heqiang Sun & Pieter Gelder, 2023. "Risk assessment methods of cascade reservoir dams: a review and reflection," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(2), pages 1601-1622, January.
    5. Hexiang Zhang & Wei Ge & Yadong Zhang & Zongkun Li & Wei Li & Junyu Zhu & Wenqi Wang, 2023. "Risk Management Decision of Reservoir Dams Based on the Improved Life Quality Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1223-1239, February.
    6. Bhardwaj, U. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Bayesian framework for reliability prediction of subsea processing systems accounting for influencing factors uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    7. Zhang, Haoyuan & Marsh, D. William R, 2021. "Managing infrastructure asset: Bayesian networks for inspection and maintenance decisions reasoning and planning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    8. Chai, Naijie & Zhou, Wenliang & Hu, Xinlei, 2022. "Safety evaluation of urban rail transit operation considering uncertainty and risk preference: A case study in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 267-288.
    9. Liu, Xinglei & Liu, Jun & Ren, Kezheng & Liu, Xiaoming & Liu, Jiacheng, 2022. "An integrated fuzzy multi-energy transaction evaluation approach for energy internet markets considering judgement credibility and variable rough precision," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    10. Wu, Xingli & Liao, Huchang, 2021. "Modeling personalized cognition of customers in online shopping," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Park, Jae-Hyun, 2017. "Time-dependent reliability of wireless networks with dependent failures," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 47-61.
    12. Liu, Hailiang & Brown, Tom & Andresen, Gorm Bruun & Schlachtberger, David P. & Greiner, Martin, 2019. "The role of hydro power, storage and transmission in the decarbonization of the Chinese power system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 1308-1321.
    13. Hongyan Dui & Xinyue Wang & Haohao Zhou, 2023. "Redundancy-Based Resilience Optimization of Multi-Component Systems," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-16, July.
    14. J-B Yang & D-L Xu & X Xie & A K Maddulapalli, 2011. "Multicriteria evidential reasoning decision modelling and analysis—prioritizing voices of customer," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(9), pages 1638-1654, September.
    15. Yuzgec, Ugur & Dokur, Emrah & Balci, Mehmet, 2024. "A novel hybrid model based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Echo State Network for wind power forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 300(C).
    16. Pengxia Zhao & Tie Li & Biao Wang & Ming Li & Yu Wang & Xiahui Guo & Yue Yu, 2022. "The Scenario Construction and Evolution Method of Casualties in Liquid Ammonia Leakage Based on Bayesian Network," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-22, December.
    17. Li, Mei & Liu, Zixian & Li, Xiaopeng & Liu, Yiliu, 2019. "Dynamic risk assessment in healthcare based on Bayesian approach," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 327-334.
    18. Hassan, Shamsu & Wang, Jin & Kontovas, Christos & Bashir, Musa, 2022. "An assessment of causes and failure likelihood of cross-country pipelines under uncertainty using bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    19. Catrinu, M.D. & Nordgård, D.E., 2011. "Integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(6), pages 663-670.
    20. Fu, Chao & Yang, Shanlin, 2011. "An attribute weight based feedback model for multiple attributive group decision analysis problems with group consensus requirements in evidential reasoning context," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 179-189, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:301:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224014920. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.