IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/trapol/v125y2022icp267-288.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Safety evaluation of urban rail transit operation considering uncertainty and risk preference: A case study in China

Author

Listed:
  • Chai, Naijie
  • Zhou, Wenliang
  • Hu, Xinlei

Abstract

Safety evaluation of urban rail transit (URT) operation can not only have a great impact on passenger travel options, but is also related to planning of urban development. The evaluation results of URT operational safety are important for transit operators and passengers. In this study, we develop an integrated multi-stage evaluation framework to assess URT operation from the perspective of safety, which considers information uncertainty of key influence factors (KIFs), and risk preference of decision-makers (DMs). Firstly, to identify and select KIFs, this study makes systematic analysis of impacts on URT operational safety from five aspects: passengers, management, equipment, environment, and disaster respectively. Vensim software is used to build a stock flow model based on system dynamics method, and a two-level index system for assessing URT operational safety is established. Secondly, DMs’ weights are specified based on interval valued triangular fuzzy (IVTF)-TOPSIS method, and IVTF-AHP-entropy is introduced to determine the combined weight of each indicator. Thirdly, an S-shaped utility function under IVTF environment is developed to get the ranking order of research objects, and operational safety levels are determined based on cloud model. Finally, Changsha subway network is selected as a case study to test our proposed evaluation framework, and some related suggestions for operators and managers have been put forward in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Chai, Naijie & Zhou, Wenliang & Hu, Xinlei, 2022. "Safety evaluation of urban rail transit operation considering uncertainty and risk preference: A case study in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 267-288.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:125:y:2022:i:c:p:267-288
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.05.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X22001275
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.tranpol.2022.05.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Khakzad, Nima & Khan, Faisal & Amyotte, Paul, 2011. "Safety analysis in process facilities: Comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 96(8), pages 925-932.
    2. Beugin, J. & Renaux, D. & Cauffriez, L., 2007. "A SIL quantification approach based on an operating situation model for safety evaluation in complex guided transportation systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 92(12), pages 1686-1700.
    3. Enrico Zio & Piero Baraldi & Irina C. Popescu, 2008. "A Fuzzy Decision Tree for Fault Classification," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(1), pages 49-67, February.
    4. Dong, Yinghui & Zheng, Harry, 2020. "Optimal investment with S-shaped utility and trading and Value at Risk constraints: An application to defined contribution pension plan," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 281(2), pages 341-356.
    5. Kuo, Ming-Shin, 2011. "A novel interval-valued fuzzy MCDM method for improving airlines’ service quality in Chinese cross-strait airlines," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1177-1193.
    6. Abbas, Khaled A. & Bell, Michael G. H., 1994. "System dynamics applicability to transportation modeling," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 373-390, September.
    7. Mumtaz Karatas, 2017. "Multiattribute Decision Making Using Multiperiod Probabilistic Weighted Fuzzy Axiomatic Design," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(4), pages 318-334, July.
    8. Wu, Yunna & Wang, Jing & Ji, Shaoyu & Song, Zixin, 2020. "Renewable energy investment risk assessment for nations along China’s Belt & Road Initiative: An ANP-cloud model method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    9. Cox, John C. & Huang, Chi-fu, 1989. "Optimal consumption and portfolio policies when asset prices follow a diffusion process," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 33-83, October.
    10. Michael Greenberg & Paul Lioy & Birnur Ozbas & Nancy Mantell & Sastry Isukapalli & Michael Lahr & Tayfur Altiok & Joseph Bober & Clifton Lacy & Karen Lowrie & Henry Mayer & Jennifer Rovito, 2013. "Passenger Rail Security, Planning, and Resilience: Application of Network, Plume, and Economic Simulation Models as Decision Support Tools," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(11), pages 1969-1986, November.
    11. R. D. Banker & A. Charnes & W. W. Cooper, 1984. "Some Models for Estimating Technical and Scale Inefficiencies in Data Envelopment Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(9), pages 1078-1092, September.
    12. Ho, Hui-Ping & Chang, Ching-Ter & Ku, Cheng-Yuan, 2015. "House selection via the internet by considering homebuyers’ risk attitudes with S-shaped utility functions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 241(1), pages 188-201.
    13. Charnes, A. & Cooper, W. W. & Rhodes, E., 1978. "Measuring the efficiency of decision making units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 2(6), pages 429-444, November.
    14. Elżbieta Kasperska & Elwira Mateja-Losa & Rafał Marjasz, 2013. "Sensitivity Analysis and Optimization for Selected Supply Chain Management Issues in the Company – Using System Dynamics and Vensim," Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management and Innovation, Fundacja Upowszechniająca Wiedzę i Naukę "Cognitione", vol. 9(2), pages 29-44.
    15. Terje Aven, 2012. "Foundational Issues in Risk Assessment and Risk Management," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 32(10), pages 1647-1656, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Meng, Yangyang & Zhao, Xiaofei & Liu, Jianzhong & Qi, Qingjie & Zhou, Wei, 2023. "Data-driven complexity analysis of weighted Shenzhen Metro network based on urban massive mobility in the rush hours," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 610(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhou, Na & Wu, Qiaosheng & Hu, Xiangping & Xu, Deyi & Wang, Xiaolin, 2020. "Evaluation of Chinese natural gas investment along the Belt and Road Initiative using super slacks-based measurement of efficiency method," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Franz R. Hahn, 2007. "Determinants of Bank Efficiency in Europe. Assessing Bank Performance Across Markets," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 31499, April.
    3. Alperovych, Yan & Hübner, Georges & Lobet, Fabrice, 2015. "How does governmental versus private venture capital backing affect a firm's efficiency? Evidence from Belgium," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 508-525.
    4. Wang, Zhao-Hua & Zeng, Hua-Lin & Wei, Yi-Ming & Zhang, Yi-Xiang, 2012. "Regional total factor energy efficiency: An empirical analysis of industrial sector in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 115-123.
    5. Azarnoosh Kafi & Behrouz Daneshian & Mohsen Rostamy-Malkhalifeh, 2021. "Forecasting the confidence interval of efficiency in fuzzy DEA," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 31(1), pages 41-59.
    6. Ruiqing Yuan & Xiangyang Xu & Yanli Wang & Jiayi Lu & Ying Long, 2024. "Evaluating Carbon-Emission Efficiency in China’s Construction Industry: An SBM-Model Analysis of Interprovincial Building Heating," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-16, March.
    7. Costa, Marcelo Azevedo & Lopes, Ana Lúcia Miranda & de Pinho Matos, Giordano Bruno Braz, 2015. "Statistical evaluation of Data Envelopment Analysis versus COLS Cobb–Douglas benchmarking models for the 2011 Brazilian tariff revision," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 47-60.
    8. Ahmad, Usman, 2011. "Financial Reforms and Banking Efficiency: Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 34220, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ashrafi, Ali & Seow, Hsin-Vonn & Lee, Lai Soon & Lee, Chew Ging, 2013. "The efficiency of the hotel industry in Singapore," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 31-34.
    10. Büschken, Joachim, 2009. "When does data envelopment analysis outperform a naïve efficiency measurement model?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 647-657, January.
    11. António Afonso & Ana Patricia Montes & José M. Domínguez, 2024. "Measuring Tax Burden Efficiency in OECD Countries: An International Comparison," CESifo Working Paper Series 11333, CESifo.
    12. Jahangoshai Rezaee, Mustafa & Jozmaleki, Mehrdad & Valipour, Mahsa, 2018. "Integrating dynamic fuzzy C-means, data envelopment analysis and artificial neural network to online prediction performance of companies in stock exchange," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 489(C), pages 78-93.
    13. Suhyeon Han & Shinyoung Park & Sejin An & Wonjun Choi & Mina Lee, 2023. "Research on Analyzing the Efficiency of R&D Projects for Climate Change Response Using DEA–Malmquist," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-23, May.
    14. Chenini Hajer & Jarboui Anis, 2018. "Analysis of the Impact of Governance on Bank Performance: Case of Commercial Tunisian Banks," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 9(3), pages 871-895, September.
    15. Zanella, Andreia & Camanho, Ana S. & Dias, Teresa G., 2015. "Undesirable outputs and weighting schemes in composite indicators based on data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 245(2), pages 517-530.
    16. Ravelojaona, Paola, 2019. "On constant elasticity of substitution – Constant elasticity of transformation Directional Distance Functions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 272(2), pages 780-791.
    17. Hu, Jin-Li & Wang, Shih-Chuan & Yeh, Fang-Yu, 2006. "Total-factor water efficiency of regions in China," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 217-230, December.
    18. Adler, Nicole & Friedman, Lea & Sinuany-Stern, Zilla, 2002. "Review of ranking methods in the data envelopment analysis context," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 249-265, July.
    19. Keh, Hean Tat & Chu, Singfat, 2003. "Retail productivity and scale economies at the firm level: a DEA approach," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 75-82, April.
    20. Peter Fernandes Wanke & Rebecca de Mattos, 2014. "Capacity Issues and Efficiency Drivers in Brazilian Bulk Terminals," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 11(5), pages 72-98, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:trapol:v:125:y:2022:i:c:p:267-288. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/30473/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.