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Probabilistic models for the erosion rate in embankments and reliability analysis of earth dams

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  • Andreini, Marco
  • Gardoni, Paolo
  • Pagliara, Stefano
  • Sassu, Mauro

Abstract

Probabilistic models for the concentrated leak erosion of earthen water retaining structures are presented. The models predict the values of the critical shear stress, the coefficient of erosion and the pipe radius enlargement, starting from other measurable soil properties and the geometrical dimensions of the embankment. The models account for both the non-cohesive and cohesive contributions to the erosion behavior. A Bayesian approach is used for the treatment of the unknown parameters. An importance sampling simulation is adopted to calibrate the models and estimate the posterior distribution of the unknown model parameters using laboratory and in situ experimental data. The new proposed probabilistic model for the pipe radius is then used to develop fragility curves that capture the pipe enlargement as a function of time for a given earth dam.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreini, Marco & Gardoni, Paolo & Pagliara, Stefano & Sassu, Mauro, 2019. "Probabilistic models for the erosion rate in embankments and reliability analysis of earth dams," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 142-155.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:181:y:2019:i:c:p:142-155
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.09.023
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    1. Yang, Zhenlin, 2006. "A modified family of power transformations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 14-19, July.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Bhardwaj, U. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Bayesian framework for reliability prediction of subsea processing systems accounting for influencing factors uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
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    5. Rajabzadeh, Vida & Hekmatzadeh, Ali Akbar & Tabatabaie Shourijeh, Piltan & Torabi Haghighi, Ali, 2023. "Introducing a probabilistic framework to measure dam overtopping risk for dams benefiting from dual spillways," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    6. Gangolu, Jaswanth & Kumar, Ajay & Bhuyan, Kasturi & Sharma, Hrishikesh, 2022. "Probabilistic demand models and performance-based fragility estimates for concrete protective structures subjected to missile impact," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    7. Rose, Rodrigo L. & Mugi, Sohan R. & Saleh, Joseph Homer, 2023. "Accident investigation and lessons not learned: AcciMap analysis of successive tailings dam collapses in Brazil," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    8. Saraygord Afshari, Sajad & Enayatollahi, Fatemeh & Xu, Xiangyang & Liang, Xihui, 2022. "Machine learning-based methods in structural reliability analysis: A review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).

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