IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v181y2019icp142-155.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probabilistic models for the erosion rate in embankments and reliability analysis of earth dams

Author

Listed:
  • Andreini, Marco
  • Gardoni, Paolo
  • Pagliara, Stefano
  • Sassu, Mauro

Abstract

Probabilistic models for the concentrated leak erosion of earthen water retaining structures are presented. The models predict the values of the critical shear stress, the coefficient of erosion and the pipe radius enlargement, starting from other measurable soil properties and the geometrical dimensions of the embankment. The models account for both the non-cohesive and cohesive contributions to the erosion behavior. A Bayesian approach is used for the treatment of the unknown parameters. An importance sampling simulation is adopted to calibrate the models and estimate the posterior distribution of the unknown model parameters using laboratory and in situ experimental data. The new proposed probabilistic model for the pipe radius is then used to develop fragility curves that capture the pipe enlargement as a function of time for a given earth dam.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreini, Marco & Gardoni, Paolo & Pagliara, Stefano & Sassu, Mauro, 2019. "Probabilistic models for the erosion rate in embankments and reliability analysis of earth dams," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 142-155.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:181:y:2019:i:c:p:142-155
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.09.023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832017310670
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2018.09.023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yang, Zhenlin, 2006. "A modified family of power transformations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 14-19, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pei, Liang & Chen, Chen & He, Kun & Lu, Xiang, 2022. "System reliability of a gravity dam-foundation system using Bayesian networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PB).
    2. Dao, Uyen & Sajid, Zaman & Khan, Faisal & Zhang, Yahui & Tran, Trung, 2023. "Modeling and analysis of internal corrosion induced failure of oil and gas pipelines," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    3. Bhardwaj, U. & Teixeira, A.P. & Guedes Soares, C., 2022. "Bayesian framework for reliability prediction of subsea processing systems accounting for influencing factors uncertainty," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    4. Bhuyan, Kasturi & Sharma, Hrishikesh, 2022. "Reliability analysis & performance-based code calibration for slabs/walls of protective structures subject to air blast loading," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    5. Rajabzadeh, Vida & Hekmatzadeh, Ali Akbar & Tabatabaie Shourijeh, Piltan & Torabi Haghighi, Ali, 2023. "Introducing a probabilistic framework to measure dam overtopping risk for dams benefiting from dual spillways," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    6. Gangolu, Jaswanth & Kumar, Ajay & Bhuyan, Kasturi & Sharma, Hrishikesh, 2022. "Probabilistic demand models and performance-based fragility estimates for concrete protective structures subjected to missile impact," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    7. Rose, Rodrigo L. & Mugi, Sohan R. & Saleh, Joseph Homer, 2023. "Accident investigation and lessons not learned: AcciMap analysis of successive tailings dam collapses in Brazil," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    8. Saraygord Afshari, Sajad & Enayatollahi, Fatemeh & Xu, Xiangyang & Liang, Xihui, 2022. "Machine learning-based methods in structural reliability analysis: A review," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    9. Zhang, Hua & Li, Zongkun & Ge, Wei & Zhang, Yadong & Wang, Te & Sun, Heqiang & Jiao, Yutie, 2024. "An extended Bayesian network model for calculating dam failure probability based on fuzzy sets and dynamic evidential reasoning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Patricia Dörr & Jan Pablo Burgard, 2019. "Data-driven transformations and survey-weighting for linear mixed models," Research Papers in Economics 2019-16, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    2. Planas, Christophe & Rossi, Alessandro, 2018. "The slice sampler and centrally symmetric distributions," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2018-11, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    3. Walter, Paul & Groß, Markus & Schmid, Timo & Tzavidis, Nikos, 2017. "Estimation of linear and non-linear indicators using interval censored income data," Discussion Papers 2017/22, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    4. Huapeng Li & Yukun Liu & Riquan Zhang, 2019. "Small area estimation under transformed nested-error regression models," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 1397-1418, August.
    5. Silvia L. P. Ferrari & Giovana Fumes, 2017. "Box–Cox symmetric distributions and applications to nutritional data," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 101(3), pages 321-344, July.
    6. Rojas-Perilla, Natalia & Pannier, Sören & Schmid, Timo & Tzavidis, Nikos, 2017. "Data-driven transformations in small area estimation," Discussion Papers 2017/30, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    7. Y. K. Tse & Z. L. Yang, 2004. "Tests of Functional Form and Heteroscedasticity," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 424, Econometric Society.
    8. Shonosuke Sugasawa & Tatsuya Kubokawa, 2015. "Box-Cox Transformed Linear Mixed Models for Positive-Valued and Clustered Data," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-957, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    9. Shonosuke Sugasawa & Tatsuya Kubokawa, 2014. "Estimation and Prediction Intervals in Transformed Linear Mixed Models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-929, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    10. Christopher Withers & Saralees Nadarajah, 2014. "Simple alternatives for Box–Cox transformations," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 77(2), pages 297-315, February.
    11. Kawakubo, Yuki & Kobayashi, Genya, 2023. "Small area estimation of general finite-population parameters based on grouped data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    12. Shonosuke Sugasawa & Tatsuya Kubokawa, 2013. " Parametric Transformed Fay-Herriot Model for Small Area Estimation ," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-911, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    13. Liangjun Su & Zhenlin Yang, 2008. "Asymptotics and Bootstrap for Transformed Panel Data Regressions," Development Economics Working Papers 22477, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    14. Sugasawa, Shonosuke & Kubokawa, Tatsuya, 2015. "Parametric transformed Fay–Herriot model for small area estimation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 295-311.
    15. Kakizawa, Yoshihide, 2022. "Multivariate elliptical-based Birnbaum–Saunders kernel density estimation for nonnegative data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    16. Natalia Rojas‐Perilla & Sören Pannier & Timo Schmid & Nikos Tzavidis, 2020. "Data‐driven transformations in small area estimation," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 183(1), pages 121-148, January.
    17. Sugasawa, Shonosuke & Kubokawa, Tatsuya, 2017. "Transforming response values in small area prediction," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 47-60.
    18. Atkinson, Anthony C. & Riani, Marco & Corbellini, Aldo, 2021. "The box-cox transformation: review and extensions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103537, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Hosoya, Yuzo & Terasaka, Takahiro, 2009. "Inference on transformed stationary time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(2), pages 129-139, August.
    20. Kakizawa, Yoshihide, 2021. "A class of Birnbaum–Saunders type kernel density estimators for nonnegative data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:181:y:2019:i:c:p:142-155. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.