IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v282y2023ics0360544223016687.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-term power load forecasting for combined heat and power using CNN-LSTM enhanced by attention mechanism

Author

Listed:
  • Wan, Anping
  • Chang, Qing
  • AL-Bukhaiti, Khalil
  • He, Jiabo

Abstract

This study proposes a new approach for short-term power load forecasting using a combination of convolutional neural networks (CNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), and attention mechanisms to address the issue of information loss due to excessively long input time series data. The objective is to enhance the accuracy of short-term power load prediction, which is crucial for efficient energy management. The study analyzes the relationship between the target load and the collected parameters, identifying the most influential factors using Pearson correlation coefficient analysis. A one-dimensional CNN layer is utilized to extract high-dimensional features from the input data, followed by an LSTM layer that captures temporal correlations within the historical sequences. Finally, an attention mechanism is introduced to optimize the weight of the LSTM output, enhance the influence of key information, and optimize the overall prediction model. The performance of the proposed model is evaluated using two benchmark models based on mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute error (MAE) metrics. The results show that the CNN-LSTM-A model outperforms the traditional LSTM model regarding power load prediction accuracy for two thermal power units, with an improvement of 7.3% and 5.7%, respectively, indicating superior performance. Therefore, this study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed CNN-LSTM-A model for short-term power load forecasting, which has potential applications in the energy industry. In conclusion, the proposed approach can improve the accuracy of power load forecasting, leading to more efficient energy management and cost savings. Additionally, the study highlights the importance of incorporating attention mechanisms into traditional LSTM models for power load forecasting, as it helps to optimize the weight of the LSTM output and improve the accuracy of the predictions. The proposed CNN-LSTM-A model can be potentially useful for energy companies and policymakers in making informed decisions regarding energy production and consumption. Overall, this study provides a valuable contribution to power load forecasting, and the proposed approach could be extended to other areas of time-series forecasting in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Wan, Anping & Chang, Qing & AL-Bukhaiti, Khalil & He, Jiabo, 2023. "Short-term power load forecasting for combined heat and power using CNN-LSTM enhanced by attention mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:282:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223016687
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.128274
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223016687
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.128274?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jebli, Imane & Belouadha, Fatima-Zahra & Kabbaj, Mohammed Issam & Tilioua, Amine, 2021. "Prediction of solar energy guided by pearson correlation using machine learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    2. Ma, Zhengjing & Mei, Gang, 2022. "A hybrid attention-based deep learning approach for wind power prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    3. Huang, Qian & Li, Jinghua & Zhu, Mengshu, 2020. "An improved convolutional neural network with load range discretization for probabilistic load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    4. Niu, Dongxiao & Yu, Min & Sun, Lijie & Gao, Tian & Wang, Keke, 2022. "Short-term multi-energy load forecasting for integrated energy systems based on CNN-BiGRU optimized by attention mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    5. Lizhen Wu & Chun Kong & Xiaohong Hao & Wei Chen, 2020. "A Short-Term Load Forecasting Method Based on GRU-CNN Hybrid Neural Network Model," Mathematical Problems in Engineering, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-10, March.
    6. Aqdas Naz & Nadeem Javaid & Muhammad Babar Rasheed & Abdul Haseeb & Musaed Alhussein & Khursheed Aurangzeb, 2019. "Game Theoretical Energy Management with Storage Capacity Optimization and Photo-Voltaic Cell Generated Power Forecasting in Micro Grid," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-22, May.
    7. Anping Wan & Qing Chang & Yinlong Zhang & Chao Wei & Reuben Seyram Komla Agbozo & Xiaoliang Zhao, 2022. "Optimal Load Distribution of CHP Based on Combined Deep Learning and Genetic Algorithm," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(20), pages 1-19, October.
    8. Spoladore, Alessandro & Borelli, Davide & Devia, Francesco & Mora, Flavio & Schenone, Corrado, 2016. "Model for forecasting residential heat demand based on natural gas consumption and energy performance indicators," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 488-499.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fengtian Chang & Guanghui Zhou & Kai Ding & Jintao Li & Yanzhen Jing & Jizhuang Hui & Chao Zhang, 2023. "A CNN-LSTM and Attention-Mechanism-Based Resistance Spot Welding Quality Online Detection Method for Automotive Bodies," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-19, November.
    2. Tian, Zhirui & Liu, Weican & Jiang, Wenqian & Wu, Chenye, 2024. "CNNs-Transformer based day-ahead probabilistic load forecasting for weekends with limited data availability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    3. Gong, Zhipeng & Wan, Anping & Ji, Yunsong & AL-Bukhaiti, Khalil & Yao, Zhehe, 2024. "Improving short-term offshore wind speed forecast accuracy using a VMD-PE-FCGRU hybrid model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    4. Dong, Juan & Xing, Liwen & Cui, Ningbo & Zhao, Lu & Guo, Li & Wang, Zhihui & Du, Taisheng & Tan, Mingdong & Gong, Daozhi, 2024. "Estimating reference crop evapotranspiration using improved convolutional bidirectional long short-term memory network by multi-head attention mechanism in the four climatic zones of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    5. Li, Shoujiang & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Hui & Liang, Yong, 2024. "Enhancing hourly electricity forecasting using fuzzy cognitive maps with sample entropy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    6. Fargalla, Mandella Ali M. & Yan, Wei & Deng, Jingen & Wu, Tao & Kiyingi, Wyclif & Li, Guangcong & Zhang, Wei, 2024. "TimeNet: Time2Vec attention-based CNN-BiGRU neural network for predicting production in shale and sandstone gas reservoirs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    7. Zhang, Chengyu & Luo, Zhiwen & Rezgui, Yacine & Zhao, Tianyi, 2024. "Enhancing building energy consumption prediction introducing novel occupant behavior models with sparrow search optimization and attention mechanisms: A case study for forty-five buildings in a univer," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    8. Minan Tang & Changyou Wang & Jiandong Qiu & Hanting Li & Xi Guo & Wenxin Sheng, 2024. "Short-Term Load Forecasting of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations Accounting for Multifactor IDBO Hybrid Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(12), pages 1-19, June.
    9. Moreno, Sinvaldo Rodrigues & Seman, Laio Oriel & Stefenon, Stefano Frizzo & Coelho, Leandro dos Santos & Mariani, Viviana Cocco, 2024. "Enhancing wind speed forecasting through synergy of machine learning, singular spectral analysis, and variational mode decomposition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    10. Yan, Xiuying & Ji, Xingxing & Meng, Qinglong & Sun, Hang & Lei, Yu, 2024. "A hybrid prediction model of improved bidirectional long short-term memory network for cooling load based on PCANet and attention mechanism," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    11. Jiang, Ben & Li, Yu & Rezgui, Yacine & Zhang, Chengyu & Wang, Peng & Zhao, Tianyi, 2024. "Multi-source domain generalization deep neural network model for predicting energy consumption in multiple office buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    12. He, Yan & Zhang, Hongli & Dong, Yingchao & Wang, Cong & Ma, Ping, 2024. "Residential net load interval prediction based on stacking ensemble learning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 296(C).
    13. Saini, Priyesh & Parida, S.K., 2024. "A novel probabilistic gradient boosting model with multi-approach feature selection and iterative seasonal trend decomposition for short-term load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 294(C).
    14. Huiqun Yu & Haoyi Sun & Yueze Li & Chunmei Xu & Chenkun Du, 2024. "Enhanced Short-Term Load Forecasting: Error-Weighted and Hybrid Model Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(21), pages 1-22, October.
    15. Farid Moazzen & M. J. Hossain, 2024. "Multivariate Deep Learning Long Short-Term Memory-Based Forecasting for Microgrid Energy Management Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-16, August.
    16. Peng, Shiliang & Fan, Lin & Zhang, Li & Su, Huai & He, Yuxuan & He, Qian & Wang, Xiao & Yu, Dejun & Zhang, Jinjun, 2024. "Spatio-temporal prediction of total energy consumption in multiple regions using explainable deep neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 301(C).
    17. Gomez, William & Wang, Fu-Kwun & Lo, Shih-Che, 2024. "A hybrid approach based machine learning models in electricity markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    18. Xu, Huifeng & Hu, Feihu & Liang, Xinhao & Zhao, Guoqing & Abugunmi, Mohammad, 2024. "A framework for electricity load forecasting based on attention mechanism time series depthwise separable convolutional neural network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    19. Hu, Likun & Cao, Yi & Yin, Linfei, 2024. "Fractional-order long-term price guidance mechanism based on bidirectional prediction with attention mechanism for electric vehicle charging," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    20. Yang, Yi & Xing, Qianyi & Wang, Kang & Li, Caihong & Wang, Jianzhou & Huang, Xiaojia, 2024. "A novel combined probabilistic load forecasting system integrating hybrid quantile regression and knee improved multi-objective optimization strategy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 356(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Niu, Dongxiao & Yu, Min & Sun, Lijie & Gao, Tian & Wang, Keke, 2022. "Short-term multi-energy load forecasting for integrated energy systems based on CNN-BiGRU optimized by attention mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    2. Fargalla, Mandella Ali M. & Yan, Wei & Deng, Jingen & Wu, Tao & Kiyingi, Wyclif & Li, Guangcong & Zhang, Wei, 2024. "TimeNet: Time2Vec attention-based CNN-BiGRU neural network for predicting production in shale and sandstone gas reservoirs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    3. Wang, Lining & Mao, Mingxuan & Xie, Jili & Liao, Zheng & Zhang, Hao & Li, Huanxin, 2023. "Accurate solar PV power prediction interval method based on frequency-domain decomposition and LSTM model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    4. Zhao, Hongqian & Chen, Zheng & Shu, Xing & Shen, Jiangwei & Lei, Zhenzhen & Zhang, Yuanjian, 2023. "State of health estimation for lithium-ion batteries based on hybrid attention and deep learning," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    5. Zhou, Guangzhao & Guo, Zanquan & Sun, Simin & Jin, Qingsheng, 2023. "A CNN-BiGRU-AM neural network for AI applications in shale oil production prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 344(C).
    6. Li, Ke & Mu, Yuchen & Yang, Fan & Wang, Haiyang & Yan, Yi & Zhang, Chenghui, 2024. "Joint forecasting of source-load-price for integrated energy system based on multi-task learning and hybrid attention mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 360(C).
    7. Li, Chuang & Li, Guojie & Wang, Keyou & Han, Bei, 2022. "A multi-energy load forecasting method based on parallel architecture CNN-GRU and transfer learning for data deficient integrated energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    8. Tian, Zhirui & Liu, Weican & Jiang, Wenqian & Wu, Chenye, 2024. "CNNs-Transformer based day-ahead probabilistic load forecasting for weekends with limited data availability," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    9. Sibtain, Muhammad & Li, Xianshan & Saleem, Snoober & Ain, Qurat-ul- & Shi, Qiang & Li, Fei & Saeed, Muhammad & Majeed, Fatima & Shah, Syed Shoaib Ahmed & Saeed, Muhammad Hammad, 2022. "Multifaceted irradiance prediction by exploiting hybrid decomposition-entropy-Spatiotemporal attention based Sequence2Sequence models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 648-682.
    10. Ji-Won Lee & Mun-Kyeom Kim & Hyung-Joon Kim, 2021. "A Multi-Agent Based Optimization Model for Microgrid Operation with Hybrid Method Using Game Theory Strategy," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-21, January.
    11. Zeng, Huibin & Shao, Bilin & Dai, Hongbin & Yan, Yichuan & Tian, Ning, 2023. "Prediction of fluctuation loads based on GARCH family-CatBoost-CNNLSTM," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    12. Yifei Chen & Zhihan Fu, 2023. "Multi-Step Ahead Forecasting of the Energy Consumed by the Residential and Commercial Sectors in the United States Based on a Hybrid CNN-BiLSTM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-21, January.
    13. Siting Li & Huafeng Cai, 2024. "Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Using a VMD-Crossformer Model," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(11), pages 1-18, June.
    14. Lv, Yunlong & Hu, Qin & Xu, Hang & Lin, Huiyao & Wu, Yufan, 2024. "An ultra-short-term wind power prediction method based on spatial-temporal attention graph convolutional model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    15. Pfeifer, Antun & Feijoo, Felipe & Duić, Neven, 2023. "Fast energy transition as a best strategy for all? The nash equilibrium of long-term energy planning strategies in coupled power markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    16. Zheng, Xidong & Bai, Feifei & Zeng, Ziyang & Jin, Tao, 2024. "A new methodology to improve wind power prediction accuracy considering power quality disturbance dimension reduction and elimination," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 287(C).
    17. Park, Jinkyu & Oh, Jungmo, 2023. "A machine learning based predictive maintenance algorithm for ship generator engines using engine simulations and collected ship data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    18. Zheng Wan & Hui Li, 2023. "Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on Feature Filtering and Error Compensation under Imbalanced Samples," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-22, May.
    19. Jian Zhu & Zhiyuan Zhao & Xiaoran Zheng & Zhao An & Qingwu Guo & Zhikai Li & Jianling Sun & Yuanjun Guo, 2023. "Time-Series Power Forecasting for Wind and Solar Energy Based on the SL-Transformer," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-15, November.
    20. Jiang, Ben & Li, Yu & Rezgui, Yacine & Zhang, Chengyu & Wang, Peng & Zhao, Tianyi, 2024. "Multi-source domain generalization deep neural network model for predicting energy consumption in multiple office buildings," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:282:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223016687. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.