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Exploring the trade-offs between electric heating policy and carbon mitigation in China

Author

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  • Jianxiao Wang

    (Tsinghua University
    North China Electric Power University)

  • Haiwang Zhong

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Zhifang Yang

    (Chongqing University)

  • Mu Wang

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Daniel M. Kammen

    (University of California)

  • Zhu Liu

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Ziming Ma

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Qing Xia

    (Tsinghua University)

  • Chongqing Kang

    (Tsinghua University)

Abstract

China has enacted a series of policies since 2015 to substitute electricity for in-home combustion for rural residential heating. The Electric Heating Policy (EHP) has contributed to significant improvements in air quality, benefiting hundreds of millions of people. This shift, however, has resulted in a sharp increase in electric loads and associated carbon emissions. Here, we show that China’s EHP will greatly increase carbon emissions. We develop a theoretical model to quantify the carbon emissions from power generation and rural residential heating sectors. We found that in 2015, an additional 101.69–162.89 megatons of CO2 could potentially be emitted if EHP was implemented in 45–55% of rural residents in Northern China. In 2020, the incremental carbon emission is expected to reach 130.03–197.87 megatons. Fortunately, the growth of carbon emission will slow down due to China’s urbanization progress. In 2030, the carbon emission increase induced by EHP will drop to 119.19–177.47 megatons. Finally, we conclude two kinds of practical pathways toward low-carbon electric heating, and provide techno-economic analyses.

Suggested Citation

  • Jianxiao Wang & Haiwang Zhong & Zhifang Yang & Mu Wang & Daniel M. Kammen & Zhu Liu & Ziming Ma & Qing Xia & Chongqing Kang, 2020. "Exploring the trade-offs between electric heating policy and carbon mitigation in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:11:y:2020:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-020-19854-y
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-19854-y
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiang, Sufan & Gao, Shan & Pan, Guangsheng & Liu, Yu & Wu, Chuanshen & Wang, Sicheng, 2021. "Congestion-aware robust security constrained unit commitment model for AC-DC grids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
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    3. Ding, Tao & Sun, Yuge & Huang, Can & Mu, Chenlu & Fan, Yuqi & Lin, Jiang & Qin, Yining, 2022. "Pathways of clean energy heating electrification programs for reducing carbon emissions in Northwest China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    4. Jan Rosenow & Duncan Gibb & Thomas Nowak & Richard Lowes, 2022. "Heating up the global heat pump market," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(10), pages 901-904, October.
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    8. Wang, Kang & Wang, Haixin & Yang, Zihao & Feng, Jiawei & Li, Yanzhen & Yang, Junyou & Chen, Zhe, 2023. "A transfer learning method for electric vehicles charging strategy based on deep reinforcement learning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    9. Yang, Tianqi & Shu, Yun & Zhang, Shaohui & Wang, Hongchang & Zhu, Jinwei & Wang, Fan, 2023. "Impacts of end-use electrification on air quality and CO2 emissions in China's northern cities in 2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
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    11. Guangsheng Pan & Qinran Hu & Wei Gu & Shixing Ding & Haifeng Qiu & Yuping Lu, 2021. "Assessment of plum rain’s impact on power system emissions in Yangtze-Huaihe River basin of China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    12. Xiaoyang Hou & Shuai Zhong & Jian’an Zhao, 2022. "A Critical Review on Decarbonizing Heating in China: Pathway Exploration for Technology with Multi-Sector Applications," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, February.
    13. Ma, Sining & Guo, Siyue & Zheng, Dingqian & Chang, Shiyan & Zhang, Xiliang, 2021. "Roadmap towards clean and low carbon heating to 2035: A provincial analysis in northern China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    14. Lu, Shilei & Lin, Quanyi & Xu, Bowen & Yue, Lu & Feng, Wei, 2023. "Thermodynamic performance of cascaded latent heat storage systems for building heating," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    15. Yang Liu & Congrui Zhang & Yingying Huang & Zhixiong Xiao & Yaxuan Han & Gaofeng Ren, 2021. "Climate Impact of China’s Promotion of the Filling Mining Method: Bottom-Up Estimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Underground Metal Mines," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, June.
    16. Jianxiao Wang & Liudong Chen & Zhenfei Tan & Ershun Du & Nian Liu & Jing Ma & Mingyang Sun & Canbing Li & Jie Song & Xi Lu & Chin-Woo Tan & Guannan He, 2023. "Inherent spatiotemporal uncertainty of renewable power in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.

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