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Risk assessment of industrial excess heat recovery in district heating systems

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  • Lygnerud, Kristina
  • Werner, Sven

Abstract

The recovery of industrial excess heat for use in district heating systems can be characterised by great political interest, high potential, low utilisation and often high profitability. These characteristics reveal that barriers are present for its greater utilisation. One identified barrier is the risk that industries with excess heat can terminate their activities, resulting in the loss of heat recovery. Excess heat recovery investments are therefore sometimes rejected, despite them being viable investments. The risk of termination of industrial activities has been assessed by a study of 107 excess heat recoveries in Sweden. The analysis verified that terminated industrial activities are one of two major explanations for terminated heat delivery. The other major reason is substitution by another heat supply. These two explanations correspond to approximately 6% of all annual average heat recoveries. The identified risk factors are small annual heat recovery and the use of heat pumps when low-temperature heat was recovered. The main conclusion is that a small proportion of industrial heat recovery has been lost in Sweden because of terminated industrial activities. The risk premium of losing industrial heat recovery for this specific reason should be considered to be lower than often presumed in feasibility studies.

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  • Lygnerud, Kristina & Werner, Sven, 2018. "Risk assessment of industrial excess heat recovery in district heating systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 430-441.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:151:y:2018:i:c:p:430-441
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.03.047
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    Cited by:

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    6. Mengting Jiang & Camilo Rindt & David M. J. Smeulders, 2022. "Optimal Planning of Future District Heating Systems—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-38, September.
    7. Antoine Fontaine & Laurence Rocher, 2021. "Energy recovery on the agenda. Waste heat: a matter of public policy and social science concern," Post-Print halshs-02971862, HAL.
    8. Averfalk, Helge & Werner, Sven, 2020. "Economic benefits of fourth generation district heating," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    9. Lygnerud, Kristina & Wheatcroft, Edward & Wynn, Henry, 2019. "Contracts, business models and barriers to investing in low temperature district heating projects," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101286, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Revesz, Akos & Jones, Phil & Dunham, Chris & Davies, Gareth & Marques, Catarina & Matabuena, Rodrigo & Scott, Jim & Maidment, Graeme, 2020. "Developing novel 5th generation district energy networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    11. Steffen Nielsen & Kenneth Hansen & Rasmus Lund & Diana Moreno, 2020. "Unconventional Excess Heat Sources for District Heating in a National Energy System Context," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-18, September.
    12. Kristina Lygnerud, 2019. "Business Model Changes in District Heating: The Impact of the Technology Shift from the Third to the Fourth Generation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-16, May.
    13. Chinese, D. & Meneghetti, A. & Cortella, G. & Giordano, L. & Tomasinsig, E. & Benedetti, M., 2024. "Environmental and economic assessment of industrial excess heat recovery collaborations through 4th generation district heating systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    14. Chinese, D. & Orrù, P.F. & Meneghetti, A. & Cortella, G. & Giordano, L. & Benedetti, M., 2022. "Symbiotic and optimized energy supply for decarbonizing cheese production: An Italian case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 257(C).
    15. Fouladvand, Javanshir & Aranguren Rojas, Maria & Hoppe, Thomas & Ghorbani, Amineh, 2022. "Simulating thermal energy community formation: Institutional enablers outplaying technological choice," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    16. Simon Moser & Gabriela Jauschnik, 2023. "Using Industrial Waste Heat in District Heating: Insights on Effective Project Initiation and Business Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, July.
    17. Lund, Henrik & Duic, Neven & Østergaard, Poul Alberg & Mathiesen, Brian Vad, 2018. "Future district heating systems and technologies: On the role of smart energy systems and 4th generation district heating," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PA), pages 614-619.
    18. Ziemele, Jelena & Dace, Elina, 2022. "An analytical framework for assessing the integration of the waste heat into a district heating system: Case of the city of Riga," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PB).

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