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The role of decentralized systems in providing universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa – A model-based approach

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  • Dagnachew, Anteneh G.
  • Lucas, Paul L.
  • Hof, Andries F.
  • Gernaat, David E.H.J.
  • de Boer, Harmen-Sytze
  • van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Abstract

Poverty and lack of access to electricity are highly correlated. In Sub-Saharan Africa, one of the poorest regions in the world, two in every three people have no access to electricity. This paper describes a purpose designed model to explore and project the development in the Sub-Saharan African electricity sector in Baseline and Universal access scenarios. The results provide insight into the role of different systems and technologies in providing access to electricity in the region and associated investment requirements. We project that Baseline developments do not lead to universal access to electricity, especially in Eastern Africa and the rural areas. The results show that central grid extension should be complemented with off-grid systems (mini-grid and stand-alone) to increase access in Sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, the targeted level of consumption has large implications on the preferred electrification technology and associated investment requirements. For low levels of consumption, off-grid technologies are the most important technologies to increase access rate, while for high levels of consumption, extending the central grid is more economical. Total cumulative investment in the period 2010-2030 amount to 22 billion USD for low levels of consumption and exceed 2.5 trillion USD for high levels of consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Dagnachew, Anteneh G. & Lucas, Paul L. & Hof, Andries F. & Gernaat, David E.H.J. & de Boer, Harmen-Sytze & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2017. "The role of decentralized systems in providing universal electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa – A model-based approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 184-195.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:139:y:2017:i:c:p:184-195
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.07.144
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    19. Valickova, Petra & Elms, Nicholas, 2021. "The costs of providing access to electricity in selected countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    20. Ioannis Pappis & Andreas Sahlberg & Tewodros Walle & Oliver Broad & Elusiyan Eludoyin & Mark Howells & Will Usher, 2021. "Influence of Electrification Pathways in the Electricity Sector of Ethiopia—Policy Implications Linking Spatial Electrification Analysis and Medium to Long-Term Energy Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-36, February.
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    23. Dagnachew, Anteneh G. & Lucas, Paul L. & Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P., 2018. "Trade-offs and synergies between universal electricity access and climate change mitigation in Sub-Saharan Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 355-366.

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