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The cost of electrifying all households in 40 Sub-Saharan African countries by 2030

Author

Listed:
  • Florian Egli

    (ETH Zurich
    IIPP Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, UCL)

  • Churchill Agutu

    (ETH Zurich
    Kigali Collaborative Research Center)

  • Bjarne Steffen

    (ETH Zurich
    ETH Zurich
    Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

  • Tobias S. Schmidt

    (ETH Zurich
    ETH Zurich
    Princeton University
    Princeton University)

Abstract

Electrifying sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) requires major investments and policy intervention. Existing analyses focus on the levelized cost of electricity at aggregate levels, leaving the feasibility and affordability of reaching Sustainable Development Goal #7 – access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all – by country unclear. Here, we use the electrification model OnSSET to estimate granular and spatially explicit levelized costs of electricity and costs per person per day (pp/d) for 40 countries in SSA. We find that solar-powered mini-grids and standalone systems drastically lower the cost of electrifying remote and high-cost areas, particularly for lower tiers of electrification. On average, least-cost electrification in SSA at Tier 3 (ca. 365 kWh/household/year), can be provided at 14c USD/kWh or 7c USD pp/d. These results are sensitive to demand assumptions, for example, misguided electrification planning or oversizing due to overestimated demand can lead to substantial cost increases. Our results highlight large variances within countries, which we propose to visualise using electrification cost curves by country. Policymakers should consider such cost curves and use a tailored approach by country and region to reach SDG7 in SSA.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Egli & Churchill Agutu & Bjarne Steffen & Tobias S. Schmidt, 2023. "The cost of electrifying all households in 40 Sub-Saharan African countries by 2030," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:14:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-023-40612-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40612-3
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    1. Duthie, Mike & Ankel-Peters, Jörg & Mphasa, Carly & Bhat, Rashmi, 2023. "The elusive quest for sustainable off-grid electrification: New evidence from Indonesia," Ruhr Economic Papers 1049, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

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