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Influence of Electrification Pathways in the Electricity Sector of Ethiopia—Policy Implications Linking Spatial Electrification Analysis and Medium to Long-Term Energy Planning

Author

Listed:
  • Ioannis Pappis

    (Division of Energy Systems, Department of Energy Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvagen 68, 10044 Stockholm, Sweden)

  • Andreas Sahlberg

    (Division of Energy Systems, Department of Energy Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvagen 68, 10044 Stockholm, Sweden)

  • Tewodros Walle

    (Energy Center, Addis Ababa Institute of Technology, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa P.O. Box 385, Ethiopia)

  • Oliver Broad

    (UCL Energy Institute, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK)

  • Elusiyan Eludoyin

    (UCL Energy Institute, University College London, Central House, 14 Upper Woburn Place, London WC1H 0NN, UK)

  • Mark Howells

    (Department of Geography, Loughborough University, Loughborough LE11 3TT, UK
    Center for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London SW7 2BU, UK)

  • Will Usher

    (Division of Energy Systems, Department of Energy Technology, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Brinellvagen 68, 10044 Stockholm, Sweden)

Abstract

Ethiopia is a low-income country, with low electricity access (45%) and an inefficient power transmission network. The government aims to achieve universal access and become an electricity exporter in the region by 2025. This study provides an invaluable perspective on different aspects of Ethiopia’s energy transition, focusing on achieving universal access and covering the country’s electricity needs during 2015–2065. We co-developed and investigated three scenarios to examine the policy and technology levels available to the government to meet their national priorities. To conduct this analysis, we soft-linked OnSSET, a modelling tool used for geospatial analysis, with OSeMOSYS, a cost-optimization modelling tool used for medium to long-run energy planning. Our results show that the country needs to diversify its power generation system to achieve universal access and cover its future electricity needs by increasing its overall carbon dioxide emissions and fully exploit hydropower. With the aim of achieving universal access by 2025, the newly electrified population is supplied primarily by the grid (65%), followed by stand-alone (32%) technologies. Similarly, until 2065, most of the electrified people by 2025 will continue to be grid-connected (99%). The country’s exports will increase to 17 TWh by 2065, up from 832 GWh in 2015, leading to a cumulative rise in electricity export revenues of 184 billion USD.

Suggested Citation

  • Ioannis Pappis & Andreas Sahlberg & Tewodros Walle & Oliver Broad & Elusiyan Eludoyin & Mark Howells & Will Usher, 2021. "Influence of Electrification Pathways in the Electricity Sector of Ethiopia—Policy Implications Linking Spatial Electrification Analysis and Medium to Long-Term Energy Planning," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-36, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:14:y:2021:i:4:p:1209-:d:504422
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Jacob Dalder & Gbemi Oluleye & Carla Cannone & Rudolf Yeganyan & Naomi Tan & Mark Howells, 2024. "Modelling Policy Pathways to Maximise Renewable Energy Growth and Investment in the Democratic Republic of the Congo Using OSeMOSYS (Open Source Energy Modelling System)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-27, January.
    3. Hassen, Sied & Beyene, Abebe D. & Jeuland, Marc & Mekonnen, Alemu & Meles, Tensay Hadush & Sebsibie, Samuel & Klug, Thomas & Pattanayak, Subhrendu K. & Toman, Michael A., 2022. "Effect of electricity price reform on households’ electricity consumption in urban Ethiopia," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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