IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v117y2016ip1p19-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Rewarding cooperative virtual power plant formation using scoring rules

Author

Listed:
  • Robu, Valentin
  • Chalkiadakis, Georgios
  • Kota, Ramachandra
  • Rogers, Alex
  • Jennings, Nicholas R.

Abstract

Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) are fast emerging as a viable means of integrating small and distributed energy resources (DERs), like wind and solar, into the electricity supply network (Grid). VPPs are formed via the aggregation of a large number of DERs, so that they exhibit the characteristics of a traditional generator in terms of predictability and robustness. In this work, we promote the formation of such “cooperative” VPPs (CVPPs) using techniques from the field of distributed Artificial Intelligence and game theory. In particular, we design a payment mechanism that encourages DERs to join CVPPs with increased size and visibility to the network operator. Our method is based on strictly proper scoring rules and incentivises the provision of accurate predictions of expected electricity generation from member DERs, which aids in the planning of the supply schedule at the Grid. We empirically evaluate our approach using the real-world setting of 16 commercial wind farms in the UK, and we show that it incentivises real DERs to form CVPPs, and outperforms the current state of the art payment mechanism developed for this problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Robu, Valentin & Chalkiadakis, Georgios & Kota, Ramachandra & Rogers, Alex & Jennings, Nicholas R., 2016. "Rewarding cooperative virtual power plant formation using scoring rules," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 117(P1), pages 19-28.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:117:y:2016:i:p1:p:19-28
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.10.077
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544216315079
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2016.10.077?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James E. Matheson & Robert L. Winkler, 1976. "Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(10), pages 1087-1096, June.
    2. Tarroja, Brian & Mueller, Fabian & Eichman, Joshua D. & Samuelsen, Scott, 2012. "Metrics for evaluating the impacts of intermittent renewable generation on utility load-balancing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 546-562.
    3. Shafie-khah, Miadreza & Parsa Moghaddam, Mohsen & Sheikh-El-Eslami, Mohamad Kazem & Rahmani-Andebili, Mehdi, 2012. "Modeling of interactions between market regulations and behavior of plug-in electric vehicle aggregators in a virtual power market environment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 139-150.
    4. Gneiting, Tilmann & Raftery, Adrian E., 2007. "Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 359-378, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jingjing Luo & Yajing Gao & Wenhai Yang & Yongchun Yang & Zheng Zhao & Shiyu Tian, 2018. "Optimal Operation Modes of Virtual Power Plants Based on Typical Scenarios Considering Output Evaluation Criteria," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-22, October.
    2. Hany Elgamal, Ahmed & Kocher-Oberlehner, Gudrun & Robu, Valentin & Andoni, Merlinda, 2019. "Optimization of a multiple-scale renewable energy-based virtual power plant in the UK," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    3. Lee, Kyungeun & Lee, Hyesu & Lee, Hyoseop & Yoon, Yoonjin & Lee, Eunjung & Rhee, Wonjong, 2018. "Assuring explainability on demand response targeting via credit scoring," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 670-679.
    4. Levieux, Luis Ignacio & Ocampo-Martinez, Carlos & Inthamoussou, Fernando A. & De Battista, Hernán, 2021. "Predictive management approach for the coordination of wind and water-based power supplies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    5. Yetuo Tan & Yongming Zhi & Zhengbin Luo & Honggang Fan & Jun Wan & Tao Zhang, 2023. "Optimal Scheduling of Virtual Power Plant with Flexibility Margin Considering Demand Response and Uncertainties," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-14, August.
    6. Kirli, Desen & Couraud, Benoit & Robu, Valentin & Salgado-Bravo, Marcelo & Norbu, Sonam & Andoni, Merlinda & Antonopoulos, Ioannis & Negrete-Pincetic, Matias & Flynn, David & Kiprakis, Aristides, 2022. "Smart contracts in energy systems: A systematic review of fundamental approaches and implementations," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    7. Andoni, Merlinda & Robu, Valentin & Früh, Wolf-Gerrit & Flynn, David, 2017. "Game-theoretic modeling of curtailment rules and network investments with distributed generation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 174-187.
    8. Mohammad Mohammadi Roozbehani & Ehsan Heydarian-Forushani & Saeed Hasanzadeh & Seifeddine Ben Elghali, 2022. "Virtual Power Plant Operational Strategies: Models, Markets, Optimization, Challenges, and Opportunities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-23, September.
    9. Zhang, Ying & Robu, Valentin & Cremers, Sho & Norbu, Sonam & Couraud, Benoit & Andoni, Merlinda & Flynn, David & Poor, H. Vincent, 2024. "Modelling the formation of peer-to-peer trading coalitions and prosumer participation incentives in transactive energy communities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 355(C).
    10. Chen, Yujia & Pei, Wei & Ma, Tengfei & Xiao, Hao, 2023. "Asymmetric Nash bargaining model for peer-to-peer energy transactions combined with shared energy storage," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    11. Burger, Scott & Chaves-Ávila, Jose Pablo & Batlle, Carlos & Pérez-Arriaga, Ignacio J., 2017. "A review of the value of aggregators in electricity systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 395-405.
    12. Boza, Pal & Evgeniou, Theodoros, 2021. "Artificial intelligence to support the integration of variable renewable energy sources to the power system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    13. Zhou, Yizhou & Wei, Zhinong & Sun, Guoqiang & Cheung, Kwok W. & Zang, Haixiang & Chen, Sheng, 2018. "A robust optimization approach for integrated community energy system in energy and ancillary service markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1-15.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ricardo Crisóstomo, 2021. "Estimating real‐world probabilities: A forward‐looking behavioral framework," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1797-1823, November.
    2. Jenny Brynjarsdottir & Jonathan Hobbs & Amy Braverman & Lukas Mandrake, 2018. "Optimal Estimation Versus MCMC for $$\mathrm{{CO}}_{2}$$ CO 2 Retrievals," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 23(2), pages 297-316, June.
    3. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    4. Nico Keilman, 2020. "Evaluating Probabilistic Population Forecasts," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 520-521, pages 49-64.
    5. Nowotarski, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2018. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1548-1568.
    6. Malte Knüppel & Fabian Krüger, 2022. "Forecast uncertainty, disagreement, and the linear pool," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 23-41, January.
    7. Bansal, Prateek & Krueger, Rico & Graham, Daniel J., 2021. "Fast Bayesian estimation of spatial count data models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    8. Theo S. Eicher & Chris Papageorgiou & Adrian E. Raftery, 2011. "Default priors and predictive performance in Bayesian model averaging, with application to growth determinants," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 30-55, January/F.
    9. de Haan, Thomas, 2020. "Eliciting belief distributions using a random two-level partitioning of the state space," Working Papers in Economics 1/20, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
    10. Matteo Iacopini & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2020. "Proper scoring rules for evaluating asymmetry in density forecasting," Papers 2006.11265, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2020.
    11. Song, Haiyan & Wen, Long & Liu, Chang, 2019. "Density tourism demand forecasting revisited," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 379-392.
    12. Luisa Bisaglia & Matteo Grigoletto, 2021. "A new time-varying model for forecasting long-memory series," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 30(1), pages 139-155, March.
    13. Tomás Marinozzi, 2023. "Forecasting Inflation in Argentina: A Probabilistic Approach," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(81), pages 81-110, May.
    14. Marczak, Martyna & Proietti, Tommaso & Grassi, Stefano, 2018. "A data-cleaning augmented Kalman filter for robust estimation of state space models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 107-123.
    15. Fabian Kruger & Hendrik Plett, 2022. "Prediction intervals for economic fixed-event forecasts," Papers 2210.13562, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    16. Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Kenneth C. Lichtendahl Jr. & Victor Richmond R. Jose & Robert L. Winkler, 2017. "Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 712-728, June.
    17. Krüger, Fabian & Nolte, Ingmar, 2016. "Disagreement versus uncertainty: Evidence from distribution forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 172-186.
    18. André Victor Ribeiro Amaral & Elias Teixeira Krainski & Ruiman Zhong & Paula Moraga, 2024. "Model-Based Geostatistics Under Spatially Varying Preferential Sampling," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 29(4), pages 766-792, December.
    19. Reif Magnus, 2021. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and forecasting macroeconomic aggregates," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(2), pages 1-20, April.
    20. Fabian Krüger & Sebastian Lerch & Thordis Thorarinsdottir & Tilmann Gneiting, 2021. "Predictive Inference Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Output," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 89(2), pages 274-301, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:117:y:2016:i:p1:p:19-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.