IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v57y2013icp141-151.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic cyclical comovements between oil prices and US GDP: A wavelet perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Benhmad, François

Abstract

In this paper, we use wavelet analysis to investigate the cyclical comovements between crude oil prices and US GDP, taking into account the decline in the volatility of US GDP growth that has occurred since the mid-1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Benhmad, François, 2013. "Dynamic cyclical comovements between oil prices and US GDP: A wavelet perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 141-151.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:57:y:2013:i:c:p:141-151
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.01.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513000244
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.01.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    2. François Benhmad, 2011. "A wavelet analysis of oil price volatility dynamic," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 792-806.
    3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    4. Donald W. Jones, Paul N. Leiby and Inja K. Paik, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What Has Been Learned Since 1996," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-32.
    5. Yogo, Motohiro, 2008. "Measuring business cycles: A wavelet analysis of economic time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 208-212, August.
    6. Cifter, Atilla & Ozun, Alper, 2007. "Multi-scale Causality between Energy Consumption and GNP in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 2483, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    8. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56.
    10. Apostolos Serletis & Asghar Shahmoradi, 2007. "Business Cycles and Natural Gas Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Quantitative And Empirical Analysis Of Energy Markets, chapter 7, pages 73-81, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Olivier Blanchard & John Simon, 2001. "The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 32(1), pages 135-174.
    12. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 2001. "Sectoral job creation and destruction responses to oil price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 465-512, December.
    13. Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2000. "Output fluctuations in the United States: what has changed since the early 1980s?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
    14. Ramsey, James B. & Lampart, Camille, 1998. "Decomposition Of Economic Relationships By Timescale Using Wavelets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 49-71, March.
    15. James A. Kahn & Margaret M. McConnell & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "On the causes of the increased stability of the U.S. economy," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 183-202.
    16. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1.
    17. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    18. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    19. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    20. Ewing, Bradley T. & Thompson, Mark A., 2007. "Dynamic cyclical comovements of oil prices with industrial production, consumer prices, unemployment, and stock prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5535-5540, November.
    21. Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
    22. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, March.
    23. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2010_006 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Ibrahim Ahamada & Philippe Jolivaldt, 2010. "Classical vs wavelet-based filters Comparative study and application to business cycle," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00476022, HAL.
    25. Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2002. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 193-208.
    26. Francis In & Sangbae Kim, 2006. "The Hedge Ratio and the Empirical Relationship between the Stock and Futures Markets: A New Approach Using Wavelet Analysis," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 799-820, March.
    27. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
    28. Baxter, Marianne, 1994. "Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: Have we missed the business-cycle relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 5-37, February.
    29. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    30. Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy, 2004. "The Less-Volatile U.S. Economy: A Bayesian Investigation of Timing, Breadth, and Potential Explanations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22(1), pages 80-93, January.
    31. Benhmad, François, 2012. "Modeling nonlinear Granger causality between the oil price and U.S. dollar: A wavelet based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1505-1514.
    32. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-744, June.
    33. François Benhmad, 2011. "Noise Traders or Fundamentalists," Post-Print hal-03062498, HAL.
    34. Fiorito, Riccardo & Kollintzas, Tryphon, 1994. "Stylized facts of business cycles in the G7 from a real business cycles perspective," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 235-269, February.
    35. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "Has The U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based On A Markov-Switching Model Of The Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 608-616, November.
    36. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    37. Abdullah Almasri & Ghazi Shukur, 2003. "An illustration of the causality relation between government spending and revenue using wavelet analysis on Finnish data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 571-584.
    38. François Benhmad, 2012. "Modeling Nonlinear Granger Causality between the Oil price and U.S Dollar," Post-Print hal-03062497, HAL.
    39. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2005_012 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
    41. Ibrahim Ahamada & Philippe Jolivaldt, 2010. "Classical vs wavelet-based filters Comparative study and application to business cycle," Post-Print halshs-00476022, HAL.
    42. François Benhmad, 2011. "Noise traders or Fundamentalists? A Wavelet approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(1), pages 782-791.
    43. Mehmet Dalkir, 2004. "A new approach to causality in the frequency domain," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(44), pages 1-14.
    44. Herrera, Ana María & Pesavento, Elena, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, And The “Great Moderation”," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 107-137, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    2. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    3. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas, 2018. "Oil Price Changes and U.S. Real GDP Growth: Is this Time Different?," QBS Working Paper Series 2018/03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    4. Marc Gronwald, 2012. "Oil and the U.S. Macroeconomy: A Reinvestigation Using Rolling Impulse Responses," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    5. Archanskaïa, Elizaveta & Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2012. "The nature of oil shocks and the global economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 509-520.
    6. repec:bla:opecrv:v:32:y:2008:i:4:p:343-380 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
    8. Valcarcel, Victor J. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Changes in the oil price-inflation pass-through," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 24-42.
    9. Ana Gómez-Loscos & Mar𨀠 Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañ鳠, 2012. "Economic growth, inflation and oil shocks: are the 1970s coming back?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(35), pages 4575-4589, December.
    10. Oladosu, Gbadebo A. & Leiby, Paul N. & Bowman, David C. & Uría-Martínez, Rocio & Johnson, Megan M., 2018. "Impacts of oil price shocks on the United States economy: A meta-analysis of the oil price elasticity of GDP for net oil-importing economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 523-544.
    11. Claudio Morana, 2013. "The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship Since the Mid-1980s: A Global Perspective," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    12. Priyanshi Gupta & Anurag Goyal, 2015. "Impact of oil price fluctuations on Indian economy," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 39(2), pages 141-161, June.
    13. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    14. Hahn, Elke & Mestre, Ricardo, 2011. "The role of oil prices in the euro area economy since the 1970s," Working Paper Series 1356, European Central Bank.
    15. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    16. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi, 2011. "Does crude oil move stock markets in Europe? A sector investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1716-1725, July.
    17. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Liquidity and crude oil prices: China's influence over 1996–2011," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 517-525.
    18. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?," NBER Working Papers 13368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Jihoon Lee & Hong Chong Cho, 2021. "Impact of Structural Oil Price Shock Factors on the Gasoline Market and Macroeconomy in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, February.
    20. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert Defina & Keith Sill, 2013. "The Long and Large Decline in State Employment Growth Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2‐3), pages 521-534, March.
    21. Munechika Katayama, 2013. "Declining Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 977-1016, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:57:y:2013:i:c:p:141-151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.