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Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability

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  • Kiseok Lee
  • Shawn Ni
  • Ronald A. Ratti

Abstract

In this paper we argue that an oil price change is likely to have greater impact on real GNP in an environment where oil prices have been stable, than in an environment where oil price movement has been frequent and erratic. An oil price shock variable reflecting both the unanticipated component and the time-varying conditional variance of oil price change (forecasts) is constructed and found to be highly significant in explaining economic growth across different sample periods, even when matched against various economic variables and other functions of oil price. We find that positive normalized shocks have a powerful effect on growth while negative normalized shocks do not.

Suggested Citation

  • Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, , vol. 16(4), pages 39-56, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:16:y:1995:i:4:p:39-56
    DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No4-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    2. Bougerol, Philippe & Picard, Nico, 1992. "Stationarity of Garch processes and of some nonnegative time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 115-127.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2025. "Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth and Inflation in Asia: What do We Learn from Empirical Studies?," MPRA Paper 123664, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Qian Shen & Mohammad Sogir Hossain Khandoker & Joti Saha & Rafiqul Bhuyan, 2024. "The Impact of Crude Oil Price Shock: Evidence from Bangladesh," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 14(6), pages 257-266, October.
    3. Jin Shang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2024. "The response of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries’ macroeconomic aggregates to crude oil price shocks: some international evidence," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 14(4), pages 933-980, December.
    4. Kou, Mingting & Zhang, Menglin & Yang, Yuanqi & Shao, Hanqing, 2024. "Energy finance research: What happens beneath the literature?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).

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    Keywords

    Oil shocks; oil prices; VAR; GARCH; US; GNP;
    All these keywords.

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