IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v115y2018icp523-544.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of oil price shocks on the United States economy: A meta-analysis of the oil price elasticity of GDP for net oil-importing economies

Author

Listed:
  • Oladosu, Gbadebo A.
  • Leiby, Paul N.
  • Bowman, David C.
  • Uría-Martínez, Rocio
  • Johnson, Megan M.

Abstract

Policy makers are interested in estimates of the potential economic impacts of oil price shocks, particularly during periods of rapid and large increases that accompany severe supply shocks. Literature estimates of the economic impacts of oil price shocks, summarized by the oil price elasticity of GDP, span a very wide range due to both fundamental economic and methodological factors. This paper presents a quantitative meta-analysis of the oil price elasticity of GDP for net oil importing countries, with a focus on the United States (US). The full range of estimates of the oil price elasticity of GDP for the US in the data is − 0.124 to + 0.017, accounting for different methodologies, data and other factors. We employ a meta-regression model that controls for key determinant factors to estimate the mean and variance of the GDP elasticity across studies. We use a robust estimation technique to deal with heterogeneity of the data and well-known econometric issues that confront meta-analysis. The resulting regression model is used to simulate the oil price elasticity of GDP for the US, with a mean of − 0.020% and 68% confidence interval of − 0.035 to − 0.006, four quarters after a shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Oladosu, Gbadebo A. & Leiby, Paul N. & Bowman, David C. & Uría-Martínez, Rocio & Johnson, Megan M., 2018. "Impacts of oil price shocks on the United States economy: A meta-analysis of the oil price elasticity of GDP for net oil-importing economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 523-544.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:115:y:2018:i:c:p:523-544
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.01.032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421518300417
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.01.032?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier J. Blanchard & Marianna Riggi, 2013. "WHY ARE THE 2000s SO DIFFERENT FROM THE 1970s? A STRUCTURAL INTERPRETATION OF CHANGES IN THE MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF OIL PRICES," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(5), pages 1032-1052, October.
    2. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    3. Labandeira, Xavier & Labeaga, José M. & López-Otero, Xiral, 2017. "A meta-analysis on the price elasticity of energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 549-568.
    4. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    5. Donald W. Jones, Paul N. Leiby and Inja K. Paik, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What Has Been Learned Since 1996," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-32.
    6. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    7. T. D. Stanley & Stephen B. Jarrell, 2005. "Meta‐Regression Analysis: A Quantitative Method of Literature Surveys," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 299-308, July.
    8. Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 133-154, October.
    9. David I. Stern, 2012. "Interfuel Substitution: A Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 307-331, April.
    10. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    11. Iwasaki, Ichiro & Tokunaga, Masahiro, 2014. "Macroeconomic Impacts of FDI in Transition Economies: A Meta-Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 53-69.
    12. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
    13. Lutz Kilian & Logan T. Lewis, 2011. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 1047-1072, September.
    14. William D. Nordhaus, 2007. "Who's Afraid of a Big Bad Oil Shock?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(2), pages 219-240.
    15. Mevik, Björn-Helge & Wehrens, Ron, 2007. "The pls Package: Principal Component and Partial Least Squares Regression in R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 18(i02).
    16. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    17. Stanley, T. D. & Doucouliagos, Chris, 2007. "Identifying and correcting publication selection bias in the efficiency-wage literature: Heckman Meta-Regression," Working Papers eco_2007_11, Deakin University, Department of Economics.
    18. Havranek, Tomas & Kokes, Ondrej, 2015. "Income elasticity of gasoline demand: A meta-analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 77-86.
    19. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2017. "The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(8), pages 1747-1776, December.
    20. Gert Peersman & Ine van Robays, 2009. "Oil and the Euro area economy [Labour market implications of EU product market integration]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(60), pages 603-651.
    21. Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Janda, Karel, 2012. "Demand for gasoline is more price-inelastic than commonly thought," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 201-207.
    22. Gallet, Craig A. & Doucouliagos, Hristos, 2014. "The income elasticity of air travel: A meta-analysis," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 141-155.
    23. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    24. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    25. Brons, Martijn & Nijkamp, Peter & Pels, Eric & Rietveld, Piet, 2008. "A meta-analysis of the price elasticity of gasoline demand. A SUR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2105-2122, September.
    26. Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
    27. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, March.
    28. Alatorre, José Eduardo & Galindo, Luis Miguel & Samaniego, Joseluis, 2015. "Meta-analysis of the income and price elasticities of gasoline demand: public policy implications for Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.
    29. Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2002. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 193-208.
    30. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Maziar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2014. "The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 113-134.
    31. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, July.
    32. Hamilton, James D & Herrera, Ana Maria, 2004. "Oil Shocks and Aggregate Macroeconomic Behavior: The Role of Monetary Policy: Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 265-286, April.
    33. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
    34. Pesaran, H.M., 2003. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with Cross Section Dependence," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0305, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    35. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-744, June.
    36. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship: Reply," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 221-222, October.
    37. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    38. T. D. Stanley, 2001. "Wheat from Chaff: Meta-analysis as Quantitative Literature Review," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 131-150, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Civcir, Irfan & Akkoc, Ugur, 2021. "Non-linear ARDL approach to the oil-stock nexus: Detailed sectoral analysis of the Turkish stock market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Togonidze, Sophio & Kočenda, Evžen, 2022. "Macroeconomic responses of emerging market economies to oil price shocks: An analysis by region and resource profile," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(3).
    3. Mine Yücel, 2018. "Oil and the economy: evolution not revolution," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 225-231, October.
    4. Ou, Shiqi & Lin, Zhenhong & Xu, Guoquan & Hao, Xu & Li, Hongwei & Gao, Zhiming & He, Xin & Przesmitzki, Steven & Bouchard, Jessey, 2020. "The retailed gasoline price in China: Time-series analysis and future trend projection," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    5. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2022. "Oil shocks and global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    6. Hamid Baghestani & Bassam M. AbuAl-Foul, 2019. "Dynamics between Oil Prices and UAE Effective Exchange Rates: An Empirical Examination," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 16, pages 89-103, May.
    7. Brown, Maxwell & Siddiqui, Sauleh & Avraam, Charalampos & Bistline, John & Decarolis, Joseph & Eshraghi, Hadi & Giarola, Sara & Hansen, Matthew & Johnston, Peter & Khanal, Saroj & Molar-Cruz, Anahi, 2021. "North American energy system responses to natural gas price shocks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    8. Liu, Donghui & Meng, Lingjie & Wang, Yudong, 2021. "The asymmetric effects of oil price changes on China’s exports: New evidence from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Oladosu, Gbadebo & Leiby, Paul & Uria-Martinez, Rocio & Bowman, David, 2022. "Sensitivity of the U.S. economy to oil prices controlling for domestic production and imports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    10. Bouri, Elie & Kachacha, Imad & Roubaud, David, 2020. "Oil market conditions and sovereign risk in MENA oil exporters and importers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    11. Oladosu, Gbadebo, 2022. "Bubbles in US gasoline prices: Assessing the role of hurricanes and anti–price gouging laws," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    12. Yonghong Jiang & Gengyu Tian & Bin Mo, 2020. "Spillover and quantile linkage between oil price shocks and stock returns: new evidence from G7 countries," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-26, December.
    13. Jin Shang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "The Response of US Macroeconomic Aggregates to Price Shocks in Crude Oil vs. Natural Gas," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-17, May.
    14. Ahmed, Salik uddin & Ali, Amjad & Kumar, Dileep & Malik, Muhammad Zeeshan & Memon, Abdul Hameed, 2019. "China Pakistan Economic Corridor and Pakistan’s energy security: A meta-analytic review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 147-154.
    15. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Papież, Monika & Rubaszek, Michał & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2022. "The role of economic development for the effect of oil market shocks on oil-exporting countries. Evidence from the interacted panel VAR model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    16. Sun, Qingru & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Guo, Sui & Wang, Ze & Liu, Siyao & Wen, Shaobo, 2019. "Effects of crude oil shocks on the PPI system based on variance decomposition network analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    17. Sanginabadi, Bahram, 2021. "Oil and Mortality," OSF Preprints j2xqw, Center for Open Science.
    18. Naixia Mou & Yanxin Xie & Tengfei Yang & Hengcai Zhang & Yoo Ri Kim, 2019. "The Impact of Slumping Oil Price on the Situation of Tanker Shipping along the Maritime Silk Road," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-16, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    2. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    3. Claudio Morana, 2013. "The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship Since the Mid-1980s: A Global Perspective," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    4. Borozan, Djula & Lolic Cipcic, Marina, 2022. "Asymmetric and nonlinear oil price pass-through to economic growth in Croatia: Do oil-related policy shocks matter?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Engemann, Kristie M. & Kliesen, Kevin L. & Owyang, Michael T., 2011. "Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. And International Evidence," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 498-517, November.
    6. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Liquidity and crude oil prices: China's influence over 1996–2011," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 517-525.
    7. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Angelidis, Timotheos & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2015. "US stock market regimes and oil price shocks," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 132-146.
    9. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    10. Rajesh H. Acharya & Anver C. Sadath, 2018. "Revisiting the relationship between oil price and macro economy: Evidence from India," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2018(1), pages 173-190.
    11. Archanskaïa, Elizaveta & Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul, 2012. "The nature of oil shocks and the global economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 509-520.
    12. Broadstock, David C. & Filis, George, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: New evidence from the United States and China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 417-433.
    13. Ana Gómez-Loscos & Mar𨀠 Dolores Gadea & Antonio Montañ鳠, 2012. "Economic growth, inflation and oil shocks: are the 1970s coming back?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(35), pages 4575-4589, December.
    14. Herrera, Ana María & Karaki, Mohamad B. & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2019. "Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 89-99.
    15. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    16. Miller, J. Isaac & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 559-568, July.
    17. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks," 2009 Meeting Papers 473, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Kamel Malik Bensafta, 2022. "The impact of oil price shocks on economic growth in Algeria," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2022(2), pages 63-82.
    19. M-Ali Sotoudeh & Andrew C. Worthington, 2016. "A comparative analysis of monetary responses to global oil price changes: net oil producing vs. net oil consuming countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 623-640, October.
    20. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Klein, Tony & Walther, Thomas, 2018. "Oil Price Changes and U.S. Real GDP Growth: Is this Time Different?," QBS Working Paper Series 2018/03, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:115:y:2018:i:c:p:523-544. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.