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Energy shortages and aggregate demand: Output loss and unequal burden from HANK

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  • Pieroni, Valerio

Abstract

I study the effects of a reduction in energy supply using a quantitative Heterogeneous Agents New Keynesian (HANK) model with energy consumption by households and firms. I find that changes in aggregate demand due to an increase in energy prices and labor market adjustments amplify the macroeconomic effects of the energy shock, but these effects remain manageable. In the model a 10% reduction in the energy supply leads to a Gross National Income (GNI) loss in range between 0.8% and 2%. The economic burden is highly nonlinear across the income distribution: most households face similar and relatively contained costs, while low-income households bear the heaviest burden. I show that monetary and fiscal policy can mitigate the economic costs and the unequal effects of energy shortages.

Suggested Citation

  • Pieroni, Valerio, 2023. "Energy shortages and aggregate demand: Output loss and unequal burden from HANK," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:154:y:2023:i:c:s0014292123000570
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104428
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nils Gornemann & Sebastian Hildebrand & Keith Kuester, 2022. "Limited Energy Supply, Sunspots, and Monetary Policy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 215, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    2. Alkis Blanz & Ulrich Eydam & Maik Heinemann & Matthias Kalkuhl & Nikolaj Moretti, 2023. "Fiscal Policy and Energy Price Shocks," CEPA Discussion Papers 70, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. Colciago, Andrea & Priftis, Romanos & Chafwehé, Boris, 2024. "Reallocation, productivity, and monetary policy in an energy crisis," Working Paper Series 2961, European Central Bank.
    4. Moll, Ben & Schularick, Moritz & Zachmann, Georg, 2023. "The power of substitution: the great German gas debate in retrospect," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120515, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Volha Audzei & Ivan Sutoris, 2024. "A Heterogeneous Agent Model of Energy Consumption and Energy Conservation," Working Papers 2024/4, Czech National Bank.
    6. Peersman, Gert & Wauters, Joris, 2024. "Heterogeneous household responses to energy price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Bartocci, Anna & Cantelmo, Alessandro & Cova, Pietro & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2024. "Monetary and fiscal policy responses to fossil fuel price shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    8. Bobasu, Alina & Dobrew, Michael & Repele, Amalia, 2024. "Energy price shocks, monetary policy and inequality," Working Paper Series 2967, European Central Bank.
    9. Gornemann, Nils & Hildebrand, Sebastian & Kuester, Keith, 2024. "Limited (energy) supply, monetary policy, and sunspots," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    10. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Andrea Gazzani, 2023. "Natural gas and the macroeconomy: not all energy shocks are alike," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1428, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Consolo, Agostino & Hänsel, Matthias, 2024. "HANK faces unemployment," Working Paper Series 2953, European Central Bank.
    12. Bobasu, Alina & Dobrew, Michael & Repele, Amalia, 2024. "Heterogeneous effects of monetary tightening in response to energy price shocks," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 123.
    13. Baqaee, David & Hinz, Julian & Moll, Benjamin & Schularick, Moritz & Teti, Feodora A. & Wanner, Joschka & Yang, Sihwan, 2024. "Was wäre wenn? Die Auswirkungen einer harten Abkopplung von China auf die deutsche Wirtschaft [What if? The effects of a hard decoupling from China on the German economy]," Kiel Policy Brief 170, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Baqaee, David & Hinz, Julian & Moll, Benjamin & Schularick, Moritz & Teti, Feodora A. & Wanner, Joschka & Yang, Sihwan, 2024. "What if? The effects of a hard decoupling from China on the German economy," Kiel Policy Brief 170, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heterogeneous agents; New keynesian; Energy; Fiscal policy; Inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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