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What if? The macroeconomic and distributional effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia

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  • Bachmann, Rüdiger
  • Baqaee, David Rezza
  • Bayer, Christian
  • Kuhn, Moritz
  • Löschel, Andreas
  • Moll, Ben
  • Peichl, Andreas
  • Pittel, Karen
  • Schularick, Moritz

Abstract

This paper discusses the economic effects of a potential cut-off of the German economy from Russian energy imports. We use a multi-sector open-economy model and a simplified approach based on an aggregate production function to estimate the effects of a shock to energy inputs. We show that the effects are likely to be substantial but manageable because of substitution of energy imports and reallocation along the production chain. In the short run, a stop of Russian energy imports would lead to an output loss relative to the baseline situation, without the energy cut-off, in the range 0.5% to 3% of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Bachmann, Rüdiger & Baqaee, David Rezza & Bayer, Christian & Kuhn, Moritz & Löschel, Andreas & Moll, Ben & Peichl, Andreas & Pittel, Karen & Schularick, Moritz, 2024. "What if? The macroeconomic and distributional effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 124094, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:124094
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Rüdiger Bachmann & David Baqaee & Christian Bayer & Moritz Kuhn & Andreas Löschel & Benjamin Moll & Andreas Peichl & Karen Pittel & Moritz Schularick, 2022. "What if? The economic effects for Germany of a stop of energy imports from Russia," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03881469, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kagerer, B., 2024. "Geopolitics and corporate risk: Evidence from EU-Russia conflict shocks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2471, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Jochen Güntner & Magnus Reif & Maik Wolters, 2024. "Sudden stop: Supply and demand shocks in the German natural gas market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1282-1300, November.
    3. Robert Lehmann & Christoph Schult, 2024. "Auswirkung eines potenziellen Gasdefizits auf die industrielle Wertschöpfung der Bundesländer," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 31(06), pages 15-16, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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