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Was wäre wenn? Die Auswirkungen einer harten Abkopplung von China auf die deutsche Wirtschaft
[What if? The effects of a hard decoupling from China on the German economy]

Author

Listed:
  • Baqaee, David
  • Hinz, Julian
  • Moll, Benjamin
  • Schularick, Moritz
  • Teti, Feodora A.
  • Wanner, Joschka
  • Yang, Sihwan

Abstract

Wie würde die deutsche Wirtschaft eine harte wirtschaftliche Abkopplung von China bewältigen? Um dem nachzugehen, simulieren die Autoren mithilfe eines quantitativen Handelsmodels ein Szenario, in dem sich die Weltwirtschaft in drei Blöcke aufspaltet: die G7-Staaten und ihre Verbündeten, China mit seinen Verbündeten sowie neutrale Länder. Der Handel Deutschlands mit China müsste komplett auf Länder des "westlichen" Blocks und neutrale Staaten umgeleitet werden. Die Kosten einer solchen worst-case harten Entkopplung quantifizieren die Autoren mit dem Multisektor-Modell der Weltwirtschaft von Baqaee und Farhi (2021). Die zentrale Erkenntnis der Autoren ist, dass ein vollständiger Abbruch der Handelsbeziehungen mit China schwerwiegende, aber nicht katastrophale Auswirkungen auf die deutsche Wirtschaft haben würde. Der Wohlfahrtsverlust für Deutschland würde sich in den ersten Monaten auf etwa 5 Prozent des Bruttonationaleinkommens (BNE) belaufen und im Laufe des ersten Jahres auf etwa 4 Prozent sinken, zusätzlich zu weiteren kurzfristigen Kosten durch konjunkturelle Verstärkungseffekte. Mittel- bis langfristig würden die Kosten auf einen dauerhaften Wohlstandsverlust von 1-2 Prozent zurückgehen. Weniger extreme Abkopplungsvarianten oder eine schrittweise Risikominimierung ("small yard, high fence") würden geringere Kosten verursachen. Die wichtigste Annahme in der Simulation betrifft die Handelselastizität, also die Leichtigkeit und Geschwindigkeit, mit der der Handel von China auf neutrale Länder und innerhalb des westlichen Blocks umgestellt werden kann. Die Ergebnisse des Policy Briefs, insbesondere die deutliche Abhängigkeit der wirtschaftlichen Kosten vom Anpassungszeitraum, bieten Argumente für einen schrittweisen Risikominimierungspfad, um eine teure und politisch kontroverse harte Abkopplung zu vermeiden, die durch geopolitische Ereignisse erzwungen werden könnte.

Suggested Citation

  • Baqaee, David & Hinz, Julian & Moll, Benjamin & Schularick, Moritz & Teti, Feodora A. & Wanner, Joschka & Yang, Sihwan, 2024. "Was wäre wenn? Die Auswirkungen einer harten Abkopplung von China auf die deutsche Wirtschaft [What if? The effects of a hard decoupling from China on the German economy]," Kiel Policy Brief 170, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:281995
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Keywords

    De-Risking; Entkopplung; Sanktionen; Embargos; De-risking; Decoupling; Sanctions; Embargoes;
    All these keywords.

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