IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v13y2020i10p233-d422459.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Willem Thorbecke

    (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry, 1-3-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8901, Japan)

Abstract

The coronavirus crisis has damaged the U.S. economy. This paper uses the stock returns of 125 sectors to investigate its impact. It decomposes returns into components driven by sector-specific factors and by macroeconomic factors. Idiosyncratic factors harmed industries such as airlines, aerospace, real estate, tourism, oil, brewers, retail apparel, and funerals. There are thus large swaths of the economy whose recovery depends not on the macroeconomic environment but on controlling the pandemic. Macroeconomic factors generated losses in industries such as production equipment, machinery, and electronic and electrical equipment. Thus, reviving capital goods spending requires not just an end to the pandemic but also a macroeconomic recovery.

Suggested Citation

  • Willem Thorbecke, 2020. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the U.S. Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-30, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:13:y:2020:i:10:p:233-:d:422459
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/13/10/233/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/13/10/233/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    2. Eichenbaum, Martin S. & Rebelo, Sergio & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "Epidemics in the New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F Wagner, 2020. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(3), pages 622-655.
    4. Lyócsa, Štefan & Baumöhl, Eduard & Výrost, Tomáš & Molnár, Peter, 2020. "Fear of the coronavirus and the stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    5. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Tesar, Linda L., 2006. "Exchange rate exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 188-218, January.
    6. Niels Joachim Gormsen & Ralph S J Koijen & Nikolai Roussanov, 0. "Coronavirus: Impact on Stock Prices and Growth Expectations," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 574-597.
    7. Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2020. "COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 329-383.
    8. Pagano, Marco & Wagner, Christian & Zechner, Josef, 2023. "Disaster resilience and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    9. Aruoba, S. BoraÄŸan & Diebold, Francis X. & Scotti, Chiara, 2009. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 417-427.
    10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    11. Jiakai Chen & Haoyang Liu & David Rubio & Asani Sarkar & Zhaogang Song, 2020. "MBS Market Dysfunctions in the Time of COVID-19," Liberty Street Economics 20200717, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    12. Eichenbaum, Martin S. & Rebelo, Sergio & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "The macroeconomics of testing and quarantining," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    13. Miklós Koren & Rita Pető, 2020. "Business disruptions from social distancing," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(9), pages 1-14, September.
    14. Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sérgio & Trabandt, Mathias, 2022. "Epidemics in the Neoclassical and New-Keynesian Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 14903, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Alessandro Rebucci & Jonathan S. Hartley & Daniel Jiménez, 2022. "An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, volume 43, pages 291-322, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    16. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Shi, Shu-Ping, 2018. "Financial Bubble Implosion And Reverse Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(4), pages 705-753, August.
    17. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F Wagner, 0. "Feverish Stock Price Reactions to COVID-19," Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 622-655.
    18. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    19. Daniel Aaronson & Scott A. Brave & R. Andrew Butters & Daniel W. Sacks & Boyoung Seo, 2020. "Using the Eye of the Storm to Predict the Wave of Covid-19 UI Claims," Working Paper Series WP 2020-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    20. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1985. "Using daily stock returns : The case of event studies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-31, March.
    21. Nida Çakır Melek, 2018. "The Response of U.S. Investment to Oil Price Shocks: Does the Shale Boom Matter?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 39-61.
    22. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 04 Apr 2008.
    23. Goolsbee, Austan & Syverson, Chad, 2021. "Fear, lockdown, and diversion: Comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    24. Larson, William D. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2022. "Nowcasting unemployment insurance claims in the time of COVID-19," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 635-647.
    25. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    26. Aït-Sahalia, Yacine & Karaman, Mustafa & Mancini, Loriano, 2020. "The term structure of equity and variance risk premia," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 204-230.
    27. Sharif, Arshian & Aloui, Chaker & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "COVID-19 pandemic, oil prices, stock market, geopolitical risk and policy uncertainty nexus in the US economy: Fresh evidence from the wavelet-based approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    28. Thorbecke, Willem, 2019. "Oil prices and the U.S. economy: Evidence from the stock market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
    29. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1980. "Measuring security price performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 205-258, September.
    30. Willem THORBECKE, 2020. "How the Coronavirus Crisis Affected Japanese Industries: Evidence from the Stock Market," Discussion papers 20061, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Irena Jindřichovská & Erginbay Uğurlu, 2021. "E.U. and China Trends in Trade in Challenging Times," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-19, February.
    2. Bingbing Wang, 2021. "How Does COVID-19 Affect House Prices? A Cross-City Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-15, January.
    3. Erdal Erol & Sayed H. Saghaian, 2022. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Dynamics of Price Adjustment in the U.S. Beef Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-14, April.
    4. Guo, Xu & Li, Runze & Liu, Jingyuan & Zeng, Mudong, 2024. "Reprint: Statistical inference for linear mediation models with high-dimensional mediators and application to studying stock reaction to COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 239(2).
    5. Michal Bernardelli & Zbigniew Korzeb & Pawel Niedziolka, 2021. "The banking sector as the absorber of the COVID-19 crisis’ economic consequences: perception of WSE investors," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 335-374, June.
    6. Larissa Batrancea, 2021. "The Nexus between Financial Performance and Equilibrium: Empirical Evidence on Publicly Traded Companies from the Global Financial Crisis Up to the COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-12, May.
    7. Szczygielski, Jan Jakub & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Charteris, Ailie & Bwanya, Princess Rutendo, 2022. "The COVID-19 storm and the energy sector: The impact and role of uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Ahmad, Nasir & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Dependence dynamics of US REITs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Nikolaos Apostolopoulos & Panagiotis Liargovas & Nikolaos Rodousakis & George Soklis, 2022. "COVID-19 in US Economy: Structural Analysis and Policy Proposals," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-15, June.
    10. Guo, Xu & Li, Runze & Liu, Jingyuan & Zeng, Mudong, 2023. "Statistical inference for linear mediation models with high-dimensional mediators and application to studying stock reaction to COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 166-179.
    11. Yarovaya, Larisa & Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Goodell, John W. & Lucey, Brian & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2022. "Rethinking financial contagion: Information transmission mechanism during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Oncu, Erdem, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on health sector stock returns," MPRA Paper 111032, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Mateusz Tomal, 2021. "Modelling the Impact of Different COVID-19 Pandemic Waves on Real Estate Stock Returns and Their Volatility Using a GJR-GARCHX Approach: An International Perspective," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-8, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Willem THORBECKE, 2020. "How the Coronavirus Crisis is Affecting the Korean Economy: Evidence from the Stock Market," Discussion papers 20088, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. Laeven, Luc, 2022. "Pandemics, intermediate goods, and corporate valuation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Greppmair, Stefan & Jank, Stephan & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2023. "On the importance of fiscal space: Evidence from short sellers during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Pedraza, Alvaro & Ruiz-Ortega, Claudia, 2021. "Banking sector performance during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Pagano, Marco & Wagner, Christian & Zechner, Josef, 2023. "Disaster resilience and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    6. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Who should be afraid of infections? Pandemic exposure and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Samson Mukanjari & Thomas Sterner, 2020. "Charting a “Green Path” for Recovery from COVID-19," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 825-853, August.
    8. Willem Thorbecke, 2021. "The Exposure of French and South Korean Firm Stock Returns to Exchange Rates and the COVID-19 Pandemic," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-29, April.
    9. Willem THORBECKE, 2020. "How the Coronavirus Crisis Affected Japanese Industries: Evidence from the Stock Market," Discussion papers 20061, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Ľuboš Pástor & M Blair Vorsatz & Jeffrey Pontiff, 0. "Mutual Fund Performance and Flows during the COVID-19 Crisis," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 791-833.
    11. Barry, John W. & Campello, Murillo & Graham, John R. & Ma, Yueran, 2022. "Corporate flexibility in a time of crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 780-806.
    12. Thorbecke, Willem, 2022. "Understanding the transmission of COVID-19 news to French financial markets in early 2020," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 103-114.
    13. Yashraj Varma & Renuka Venkataramani & Parthajit Kayal & Moinak Maiti, 2021. "Short-Term Impact of COVID-19 on Indian Stock Market," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-15, November.
    14. Bellucci, Andrea & Borisov, Alexander & Gucciardi, Gianluca & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2023. "The reallocation effects of COVID-19: Evidence from venture capital investments around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    15. Sakemoto, Ryuta, 2023. "The long-run risk premium in the intertemporal CAPM: International evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    16. Monica Martinez-Blasco & Vanessa Serrano & Francesc Prior & Jordi Cuadros, 2023. "Analysis of an event study using the Fama–French five-factor model: teaching approaches including spreadsheets and the R programming language," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-34, December.
    17. Heyden, Kim J. & Heyden, Thomas, 2021. "Market reactions to the arrival and containment of COVID-19: An event study," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    18. repec:zbw:bofitp:2020_015 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Ștefan Cristian Gherghina & Daniel Ștefan Armeanu & Camelia Cătălina Joldeș, 2020. "Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(18), pages 1-35, September.
    20. Guo, Xu & Li, Runze & Liu, Jingyuan & Zeng, Mudong, 2023. "Statistical inference for linear mediation models with high-dimensional mediators and application to studying stock reaction to COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 166-179.
    21. Andrieș, Alin Marius & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu, 2021. "The COVID-19 Pandemic and Sovereign Bond Risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:13:y:2020:i:10:p:233-:d:422459. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.